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著名国际关系学者赵穗生CCG演讲：中美之间并非零和游戏
二战后尤其是冷战结束后，美国一直是国际秩序的积极主导者。但特朗普当选美国总统之后，美国似乎正在逐步退出由他一手打造的世界秩序体系。作为新晋崛起的大国，中国却以积极的表态和实际的行动树立了中国现行国际秩序积极维护者的形象。在这一轮的世界秩序重塑过程中，中美两个大国将如何定位各自的角色和作用？两国又将如何在分歧与合作中博弈？中国是否能够成为现有秩序的改革者？ 2017年7月31日，全球化智库（CCG）邀请CCG学术委员会专家、资深中国问题专家、美国丹佛大学约瑟夫·克贝尔国际关系学院终身职正教授、美中合作中心主任赵穗生在CCG发表演讲。赵教授以他驾驭中外的文化背景和深厚学养，围绕“世界秩序的重塑：中美在全球治理中的博弈”的主题，为与会者厘清未来全球秩序下的中国定位以及中美关系的未来走向。CCG主任王辉耀博士致辞，CCG副主任、秘书长苗绿博士主持会议。 王辉耀博士首先介绍了赵穗生教授在国际关系和中美研究等方面的精深造诣。他表示，二战后诞生了联合国、国际货币基金组织、世界银行等国际机制，这些第一波全球治理机制主导了世界过去六七十年的发展。但近来“英国脱欧”以及美国总统特朗普上台后推行一系列反全球化政策，给世界带来诸多不确定性，而中国作为崛起的大国，坚定地支持全球化和自由贸易，并维护巴黎气候协定成果。CCG非常关注全球化，中美在全球治理和世界秩序中的角色和互动非常值得分析。他回顾到，现在国际竞争性招标 （International Competitive Bidding）在中国的普及要归功于世界银行80年代在中国推广相关概念。中国市场机制的建立和国际治理达到今天的高度也是中国积极参与第一轮全球治理的成果。王辉耀博士指出，在新一轮全球化中，中国领导人已不只讲中国模式、中国道路，而是站在全球角度来看全球问题，“一带一路”实际上也是中国尝试为全球治理提供的公共产品。如果未来中国、欧洲和美国能进一步推动全球化，并建立起亚太自贸区，将会是非常好的现象。 CCG学术委员会专家赵穗生在演讲中表示，谈到世界秩序，首先要定义它是什么。世界秩序就是在全球治理当中的游戏规则（laws,rules and institutions），它是通行的大家认为的价值、概念和机制。国家可以就此分为三类：大国（rule maker）塑造着全球秩序；小国（rule taker）追随、执行大国制定的秩序；崛起的大国（rule breaker ）因不满意既成大国所塑造的秩序（status quo），而常常打破这些规则，重新塑造反映它的价值观念和利益的游戏规则或者世界秩序。 赵教授指出，目前的世界秩序是由美国领导的在二战后建立起来的，这个秩序面临着两方面挑战。第一个挑战是很多人认为，中国作为一个崛起的大国，进入21世纪后对现存的国际秩序越来越不满意，中国也不例外地现在要挑战甚至替代美国，重塑符合自己利益和价值观的世界秩序。第二个挑战来自于美国本身，虽然现存秩序是美国自己领导和塑造的，但特朗普上台后做的很多事情都在瓦解或挑战这个秩序，这种挑战和中国的崛起加在一起，很多人就认为，中国完全有可能替代美国，重建二战以后的世界秩序。 关于这个问题，赵教授认为，“中国并没有替代，也不可能在短期内替代美国而重新塑造二战以后的世界秩序。”他指出，回答这个问题要看二战后的秩序是什么样的秩序。它是以混合原则所主导的国际秩序，一方面有很强的自由主义，另一方面其根本的指导原则还是1648年《威斯特伐利亚合约》建立起的以民族国家主权为基础的原则。联合国宪章所规定的国际机构就是明显的例子，国家主权在安全事务、经济、贸易、投资和金融领域受到了不同程度的修正，让步给一些国际机构。而尽管中国在建国之初被排除在联合国之外，但中国并没有一个和现存体系相背离的价值观念，万隆会议上提出的和平共处五项原则也完全是当时国际秩序最主要的价值观念。挑战现存体系的价值观念实际是现存国际体系当中最根本的价值观念--主权原则。所以，在这个过程中，中国最后就在加入联合国以后很快融入现存的国际秩序，最后变成现存国际秩序的利益相关者、参与者和贡献者。 但中国并不是对现存国际秩序就百分之百地满足。赵穗生教授指出，不满意主要表现在三方面：一是现存国际秩序指导原则的制定，因为中国当时不在场，现有的国际秩序反映的是自由主义、人权或对主权侵蚀的西方主流价值观念，而中国由于国家政治制度和历史文化原因对很多概念不能接受，感到被排斥。二是中国的代表权、发言权，中国的国民生产总值占全球比例由二战后的1-2%增加到15%左右，但经济力量的变化并没有反映在现存国际秩序机制当中，而这种要求很大程度上受到美国的压制。三是美国双重标准，美国主导世界游戏规则很大程度上是对人不对己，他不愿意把自己放在中国和其他成员国的地位上，但要求其他成员国遵守他自己制定的规则。 在国际社会来看，过去中国只讲参与，从来没有谈引导，现在中国要引导国际社会建立国际秩序和国际安全，中国在国际治理中的角色就发生了转换，中国很大程度上在全球治理中要发挥领导作用了。但中国现在是否有这样的能力来替代美国成为塑造国际秩序的主导者，或者成为全球化的引领者？赵教授认为，“中国目前做的事情并不是要取代美国。” 原因一是在“硬实力”方面，国际秩序的塑造者要花很多资源，中国目前还没有足够的资源来取代美国。事实上美国已经深深地嵌入全球生产链中，特朗普的很多政策仍然脱离不了传统上美国在国际事务当中的责任。二是在“软实力”方面，美国在世界上的领导地位不仅是由于其硬实力，很大程度也是它的软实力，全世界很多国家铁了心跟着美国，信任美国，中国也开始有这样一些国家，但数量和美国相比还比较少，中国价值观的认同度和美国普世价值的认同度相比还有很大差距。三是中国还是现存美国主导的国际秩序的最大受益者。试想一下，如果中国把美国驱逐出亚洲，亚洲就会是无政府状态。也有学者提出，亚洲本身就会受到挑战，因为亚洲这些国家的历史恩怨以及边界冲突，很大程度上能被压抑住是因为美国这些年在这个地区所建立的一套安全体系所起的作用，美国在这些地区的影响力中国在相当长时期不可能替代。 他总结到，中美之间的发展不是一种零和游戏，完全是一种双赢，中美之间的相互依存程度已经达到前所未有的地步。多年来，中国被很多国家说是一个搭便车者（free rider），现在正在发挥越来越重要的作用。中国很大程度上是要求改革现存秩序，而不是要重新塑造国际秩序，是要改变美国在国际事务中的霸权，改变中国在国际游戏规则制定中的地位。从中国角度来讲，也应该明确向美国或全世界宣布，中国是现存国际秩序的维护者，因为中国仍然是受益者，但中国不满的、要改革的是国际秩序当中，以中国为代表的发展中国家或新兴国家的发言权和代表权。这一点是中美之间全球博弈的焦点。 在互动环节，赵穗生教授就中美首次全面经济对话结果，美国如何看待中国引领全球化，中国是否面临“战略透支”，以及中美两国如何相互妥协与合作等问题展开进一步交流。 与会嘉宾还有CCG“一带一路”研究所执行所长黄日涵，CCG常务理事、点融网首席政策顾问郝作成，CCG理事、安学国际有限公司创始人、总裁徐耀良，CCG执行秘书长李卫锋博士，CCG副秘书长唐蓓洁博士，CCG有关研究员等以及国内数十家主流媒体。
2017年8月1日 -
【China Daily】Looking for a house away from home
Zhang Le (second from right) enjoys a meal with her family and friends at her rented house in the United States. She is a music education doctoral student at Pennsylvania State University. Provided to China DailyAs more young people head abroad to study, the demand for student accommodation is growing rapidly."I was not feeling good in the house. My roommate and landlord were not easy to get along with so I moved one month after I arrived in Britain," says Liu Tianyi, a 26-year-old master’s student from Durham University.In 2015, Liu, a native of Zhuzhou in Hunan province, went to the United Kingdom to study international social work and community development. Before leaving China, she found a house through her friend on Sina Weibo, a Chinese micro blog.Liu knew nothing about the house until she arrived in the UK."The house was on a hill and very far away from downtown Durham. And my landlord was not friendly," says Liu."I also had lots of fights with my roommate since he always reported me to the landlord for not sorting the garbage, which I did."For Liu, life abroad was different from what she had imagined - she was not prepared for the problems.Today, there are many students like Liu who struggle to find suitable accommodation abroad.Growing demandChina had 1.26 million students studying abroad by the end of 2015, about 25 percent of the world’s total, according to a report by the Beijing-based think tanks Center for China and Globalization(CCG) and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.The overseas student accommodation market has great potential."If we look at the rents in cities across the globe, then we’re looking at an industry valued at around $150 billion," says Luke Nolan, CEO of student.com, a platform head-quartered in the UK that provides overseas student accommodation service."We’ve also noticed that, in addition to the market for full academic year accommodation, there’s a growing demand for short-term accommodation."Liu returned to China after a one-year program.Speaking about her experience, she says that she should have put in more effort in finding a house."Taking the initiative is crucial," says Liu.New media platforms offer a way for students to look for accommodation.Zhang Le, a 31-year-old music education doctoral student at Pennsylvania State University in the United States, found a house by going online."I found a house through Penn State’s BBS," says Zhang, a native of Shuangyashan in Heilongjiang province. "After I got the contact of the landlord, I told him to download WeChat (Chinese messaging app), through which we could communicate."This helped Zhang to understand the neighborhood and the ways of commute. Now she lives in a two-bedroom house with her husband.Overseas study is no longer only for the young, as many older students now take along dependants, just like Zhang."I had to plan in advance as my husband was to stay with me. I was fortunate to find a good house, but it could be difficult for those who are young," says Zhang.Even as demand for overseas accommodation by students from China grows, there is still no convenient way to find housing, since this is an industry with both complexity and variety."Almost every city in China has students going to a huge range of destinations, including the UK, the US, Australia, Canada, France and Germany," says Nolan."Students from different countries have different needs, and the property markets are different, too."Li Jiabao, a 23-year-old law student from Sciences Po in Paris, says that international students from non-European Union countries need a guarantor to rent a house in France."In my four years at university, I was lucky that I had a roommate from Norway in the first year and then a Chinese agency that helped with the guarantor bit, but it was slightly expensive."Still, not every student studying in France is lucky enough like Li, a native of Shenyang in Liaoning province.Safety is keyBesides the hardships in finding housing in different countries, safety is one of the main considerations for Chinese students, followed by location and price, according to an overseas student accommodation report by student.com.As for Zhang, she says: "I suggest that a freshman should live on campus for the first year."As for single female students, it would be better to find a roommate instead of living alone."In addition, colleges sometimes send out information.Giving her take, Li says: "Location really matters."Science Po is located a little far from where she lives."Some of my classmates lived in nearby cities, which were roughly a one-hour commute," Li says.Liu emphasizes that finding good accommodation eases the culture shock."When I was in the United Kingdom, my roommates always hosted parties on the weekend. I am not the kind of person who socializes very much, so attending the parties helped me to immerse myself in the community," she says.For a lot of Chinese students, studying abroad is the first time they are away from China or the first time they are living by themselves.So, when faced with new languages and cultures, it can be quite challenging to adapt.Nolan says that the notion of "student community" is vital.From China Daily，2017-7-28
2017年7月31日 -
【China Daily】Good outlook for bilateral trade
Analysts from a leading Chinese think tank said they were optimistic about the prospects for China-US trade and investment, calling for a restart to negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty and for the promotion of cooperation in fields such as services trade and energy."We are optimistic about the prospects as Chinese entrepreneurs are optimistic about economic growth in the United States, which creates a huge potential for investment in the US," said Lu Jinyong, director of the China Center for Investment Promotion.Lu spoke at a symposium on the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, hosted by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG)on Tuesday. The center is one of China’s top privately funded think tanks.According to the Foreign Ministry, the dialogue focused on macroeconomic policies, trade and investment, and global governance, while seeking to expand cooperation and tackle differences.CCG Director Wang Huiyao said China wanted fair treatment for Chinese companies investing in the US and more relaxed export controls, while the US wanted balanced trade.The US is seeking wider opening-up by China to cut the trade deficit, due to growing interdependence between the two countries, Lu said. Data showed investment Chinese businesses have made in the US had surpassed those from the world’s largest economy.Bilateral investment hit a new record high of $60 billion last year with $45.6 billion coming from China, according to a report jointly released by the CCG and the US-based Rhodium Group last month. China had a trade surplus of around $250 billion with the US last year.Lyu Xiang, a researcher on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China’s trade surplus partly stems from different positions in the current global supply chain."Taking the iPhone as example, more than half of its components are purchased around the globe and then assembled in China, but Apple Inc takes half of the net profits," Lyu said. "So the US has to look at the deficit from an objective angle."Cui Fan, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said China and the US have increasingly shared interests.China and the US should restart negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty, he said. BIT negotiations were initiated in 2008 and both countries agreed to exchange the second round of negative lists last June.He Weiwen, a senior researcher at the CCG, said the treaty is in line with the economic interests of the US as the business community in the US has strongly called for such an agreement.CCG’s Wang Huiyao said both countries can also cooperate in infrastructure and energy. US President Donald Trump has an ambitious plan to rebuild the infrastructure system as an important way to boost manufacturing and employment.Chinese companies have been known for their cost-efficiency and efficiency in building highways, railways and ports. For example, CRRC Corporation Limited has bid for subway projects in Boston and Chicago, Wang said."Infrastructural cooperation can help achieve more balanced economic ties between the two countries," Wang added.From China Daily，2017-7-28
2017年7月31日 -
【Bloomberg View】China Focuses on Avoiding Trade War as Xi-Trump Honeymoon Ends
With the honeymoon period ending between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China is focused on making the relationship work to avoid a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.High-level economic talks in Washington on Wednesday began with tense exchanges and ended with no joint statements and no major breakthroughs. While Trump’s team claimed victory, China took a more conciliatory tone: The foreign ministry said Thursday that both sides agreed to start “constructive cooperation” to narrow a $309 billion trade deficit.The post-meeting statements, while hardly positive, pave the way for more dialogue following a volatile period since Trump’s election win in which ties lurched between extremes. Initial fears of a full-blown trade war disappeared after Trump praised Xi during an April summit, only to resurface recently after the U.S. president faulted him for failing to do more on North Korea."Like marriage, you wouldn’t go directly for divorce just because you have some bickering," said Ruan Zongze, vice president of the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing and a former top diplomat in Washington. "China-U.S. ties have grown to be deep and strong enough to absorb setbacks, as long as these setbacks don’t turn into drastic ups and downs."China’s two-way commerce with the U.S. last year amounted to about $600 billion, nearly twice as much as its second-biggest trading partner Japan. The U.S.’s trade deficit with China is more than three times greater than with Mexico, another frequent target of Trump’s ire.‘Big Step’Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said before the meeting that the U.S. would push China to lift foreign ownership restrictions in its financial services industry and to remove hurdles for the technology sector. The brief U.S. statement after the meeting made clear that didn’t happen, with Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross saying China “acknowledged our shared objective to reduce the trade deficit.”Still, Mnuchin cast the meeting as a success, telling the Financial Times that the administration achieved a “very big step forward” in tackling the deficit. He told the newspaper that Beijing had “heard the direction of the marching orders” Trump had given them.In Beijing, the foreign ministry said that both sides agreed to narrow the gap and the main result was establishing a "correct direction" for bilateral economic cooperation -- a standard phrase indicating the need to resolve disputes only through dialogue.China’s vague comment acknowledged that the meeting didn’t yield anything concrete, according to He Weiwen, deputy director of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG) in Beijing."Nobody here really expected the first talks to produce much," said He, a former business attache at China’s consulates in New York and San Francisco. "What we’ve got is not some contingent plan. China plays a long game with the U.S., and won’t be discouraged by a small setback like this one."Early on, Trump linked trade policy with China’s action to stem North Korea. After a few months went by with little action, the administration has indicated it’s weighing tariffs or restrictions on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum, which it says unfairly flood global markets and make U.S. producers unable to compete.While that stance means China remains vulnerable to U.S. protectionism, the approach "seems to reduce the risk of more significant harm to China’s exports to the U.S.," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. The former World Bank and International Monetary Fund economist said China sends little steel to the U.S. and both sides ultimately "don’t really want to see an escalation."Tug-of-WarChinese Vice Premier Wang Yang warned on Wednesday that the two countries were so mutually dependent economically that "confrontation will immediately damage the interests of both." He cited Xi’s remarks at Mar-a-Lago: "There are a thousand reasons to make the China-U.S. relationship work, and no reason to break it."That contrasted with comments by Ross, who scolded China about trade imbalances and said they need to improve."There’s a tug-of-war between the economic nationalists and the more corporate-friendly Trump camps, and it had seemed the former were winning -- Ross’s words suggest so," said Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong. "However, China is simply not going to budge. It probably figures the U.S. will just back off."The U.S. had higher hopes immediately after the Trump-Xi meeting, and saw some initial results. The 100-day action plan, which expired Sunday, reopened China’s market to U.S. beef after 14 years.Despite tensions, Trump has maintained praise for Xi of late. While visiting Paris last week, he called his Chinese counterpart a "terrific guy" and "great leader." Those personal bonds may at least help avoid some of the worst-case scenarios."There will be bumps on the road as both China and U.S. test each other’s position," said Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist with Maybank Kim Eng Research in Singapore. "Trade negotiations will be more of a dance than a fight. We don’t think the trade talks will degenerate into a broader trade war, as both sides stand to lose big."From Bloomberg View，2017-7-20
2017年7月31日 -
【经济日报】美国应摆脱“扭转对华逆差”短视思维
日前，由全球化智库（CCG）举办的“从首次全面经济对话看中美经贸投资前景”研讨会在北京举行。与会专家认为，美国应摆脱“扭转对华贸易逆差”的短视思维，中美在基建、能源、高新技术产业、旅游产业等领域合作前景广阔。 贸易逆差一直是困扰中美关系多年的现实问题。对此，中国社科院美国问题专家吕祥认为，自1975年以来，美国一直处于逆差状态，而且日趋扩大，这个问题的根源在于美元本身。自1973年美元脱离金本位之后，美元成为一种不受任何约束的全球货币。从经济学角度来看，一旦一个国家的货币成为国际主导型储备货币，贸易上一定会出现逆差。美国需要在关键政策上作出到底是采取强美元还是弱美元的决定。如果美元强势，美国还能主导世界，全世界对美元还有需求。如果美国通过一系列操控把美元变成弱美元，美国的出口将有所增加，逆差随之减少，但美元的国际地位就会丧失，对世界的掌控能力也随之丧失，这对美国来说是两难选择。 吕祥认为，美国现政府的优先政策是释放美国能源产出能力，这中间蕴含着巨大的中美合作潜力。美国地下所藏页岩油、页岩气价值50万亿美元，可以开采100年至200年，这将成为美国经济下一个增长点。但是，大幅度开发页岩油气，美国现在没有成本优势，所以仍然处于亏损开发状态。中国可以参与美国的能源开发，参与有关能源的基础设施建设，比如合作投资大型液化气运输船等。 原中国驻旧金山、纽约领馆商务参赞何伟文认为，2015年至2016年，美国对全球商品出口累计增长了61.0%，其中对中国的出口累计增长了180.6%，同期从中国的进口增加了90.0%，对华出口增幅是进口增幅的两倍。中美贸易逆差是一个全球产业链的问题，应该从全球、行业角度来看待，不应该从双边角度苛责。根据WTO的一项统计，今年1月份至5月份，美国对G20其他成员国采取的贸易限制同比增长26%，其他19个国家对美国采取的贸易限制同比减少了29%。美国揪着“贸易逆差”不放是短视的做法，中美更应该着眼于“产业合作”，而不是互相掣肘。 对于中美未来合作的产业方向，全球化智库（CCG）主任王辉耀认为，重点合作领域首先是基础设施建设。在特朗普的重振美国计划中，基础设施建设是重点，中车、中建、万科、绿地等中国企业都已布局美国。中车在美国波士顿地铁、芝加哥地铁、洛杉矶地铁建设中已经拿到一些项目，中美基础设施领域合作可以有更大的发展空间，希望在该领域美国能够更加开放。其次，能源、天然气领域是新的合作增长点。中美在能源合作领域具备很强的互补性。第三是高科技领域，希望美方放宽对中国高技术出口的限制。与此同时，美国高科技公司也希望能更多参与中国市场。此外，在电影、旅游、留学等领域，双方也有很大的合作空间。文章选自《经济日报》，2017年7月28日
2017年7月31日 -
【环球时报】何伟文：美“贸易平衡”的政治考量
何伟文，全球化智库（CCG）高级研究员 近期结束的首轮中美全面经济对话，美方一再强调缩减逆差和贸易再平衡。但美国对中国的逆差本质上是全球价值链和供应链的问题，症结不在中国而在美国。从数据看美国的贸易逆差事实上对美国的国际收支、经济增长和就业率都没有太大的影响。那么为什么特朗普要扮演这个大战“贸易平衡”风车的堂吉诃德呢？ 政治考量才是特朗普对贸易平衡如此执着的本质原因。以特朗普政府一直表达强硬立场的钢铁贸易为例。2010年至2016年间，美国钢铁业就业人数减少了8.8%，整个就业总数为26.9万人，占全部非农业就业总数的2‰。特朗普在这点上做文章，就是因为该群体是他的票仓。同理，中美牛肉贸易额大约50亿美元，对于整体两国贸易来说只是很少的一部分。但是，因为牛肉生产者在大选时给特朗普投了支持票，所以特朗普要有所回报才行。尽管农业只占美国经济的2%，但在政治上的权重却至少超过50%。钢铁和牛肉是政治上的重头，特朗普必须要抓，尽管金额上不大。 这些无疑都体现出特朗普政府贸易平衡战略背后的政治考量。为什么这届政府一直强调中美之间的贸易不平衡？一定程度上这是在将经济问题政治化，借用经济问题来谋取政治利益。而国际货币基金组织对今明两年美国经济增长率的预期做了下调。这个时候恰好需要一个替罪羊。 特朗普对几乎所有的主要贸易伙伴的主要诉求是大量削减逆差，保持贸易平衡。所以，他还将在2017年推行更多的贸易限制，这是不可避免的。因此，我们的应对之策既要寻求合作也要有底线意识。底线就是三个“不能让”：影响国家安全的不能让;影响经济增长的不能让;影响就业的不能让。 具体到微观层面的策略，我建议从以下三个方面来推进：第一，加强对美国一些传统行业的投资，中美联合搞产业合作;第二，把“一带一路”当做中美合作的一个桥梁，共同研究向第三方市场的开拓;第三，讨论成立中美合作的基金，以及与美主流基金、投资银行等合作来做一些实际的项目;第四，争取尽早重启中美双边投资协定谈判。 总之，我们对特朗普政府既不能无原则地让步，但也要坚守中美合作这个主基调和根本立场。文章选自《环球时报》，2017年7月28日
2017年7月31日 -
陈文玲：下一代贸易方式必将是E国际贸易
在“全球跨境电子商务大会”上，中国国际经济交流中心总经济师陈文玲发表了有关E国际贸易的公开演讲，她指出，下一代贸易方式已经呼之欲出，就是E国际贸易。当前国际贸易方面的大国博弈非常激烈，谁能适应国际贸易规律就是胜利者。中国现已成为世界第一大贸易体和副贸易第一大国，应该有能力引领下一代贸易。专家简介陈文玲，全球化智库（CCG）学术委员会专家，中国国际经济交流中心总经济师。 尊敬的翁杰明省长，尊敬的龙永图部长，尊敬的各位来宾大家上午好！ 我简要的谈一下观点，上个礼拜我们刚刚从瑞士回来，在瑞士参加了WTO组织和国际贸易可持续发展中心有关国际贸易的一些讨论，拜会了世界基金论坛的总部，即习主席在世界经济论坛发表演讲的组织者。他们非常关注一个问题，就是我们的贸易发展方向是什么，正向什么方向发展。有六个国家的驻WTO大使，还有驻联合国大使，还有专家学者也参加了这次会议。在会议上，我们跟他们谈了对于下一步贸易的想法。而且我们中心从去年开始，就在研究下一代贸易的理论框架与政策框架。综合起来说，我们认为，下一代贸易呼之欲出，那就是E国际贸易，简单的说就是国际贸易的E化。大家可能要问国际贸易，下一步贸易方式和现在的我们所谈的跨境电商是什么关系呢？下一代贸易方式为什么能呼之欲出呢？我们通过研究认为，主要有六个方面的因素。或者说六个方面的重要的基础，导致了中国会下一代贸易中成为引领者。 首先，从我们和国际贸易组织以及世界经济论坛的总部，以及国际贸易可持续发展中心组织这些座谈会来看。我觉得我们的看法是大体上是接近的。首先，国际贸易形态发生了非常重大的变化。而且是质的变化，现在按照世界经济论坛提供的研究报告表明，世界贸易的2/3是中间品贸易。而过去的国际贸易最主要的却是最终品贸易，即一个产品成为最终消费品时的贸易。向中国还有东南亚国家进行的贸易中，中间品贸易能达到4/5。我认为这个数字有点大，前几年我们做过国货负进口的调研，那个时候的国货负进口，实际上也是中间品贸易的比重已经达到1/3。 第二，全球出现一大批平台性企业，这些平台和平台性企业从实质上来看，是我们的下一代贸易方式，即E国际贸易的基础设施。 第三，下一代贸易的发端不再是一般的贸易组织方式，而是来自于若干消费者集成、生成的贸易流量以及贸易方向。在某种意义上来说，消费者将成为下一代贸易的主体。 第四，中国现在已经成为货物贸易的第一大国。我们是120个国家的第一大贸易伙伴，70个国家的第二大贸易伙伴，也应该有能力引领下一代贸易。 第五，现今大国博弈异常激烈，尤其是在国际贸易方面。双方在“到底是是选择坚持经济全球化和贸易自由化、便利化，还是逆全球化，搞封闭主义，保守主义，孤立主义，切断产业链、供应链、价值链和服务链的链条，然后躲起来自成一统”方面，博弈非常激烈。不管是美国前总统奥巴马搞的TPP，TIP，还是美国总统特朗普搞的封闭主义，实质就一个。这种博弈使得美国领先，霸权得到巩固，得到放大。而其所遏制的矛头，则指向迅速崛起的中国，现今第一贸易大国的中国。因此，这种大国间博弈最后胜出的关键，就在于谁更能适应经济全球化大潮，更能适应国际贸易的规律。因此，我们认为下一代贸易中国将是引领者，将是胜出者。因为我国现在最具有这种胜出的条件。 第六，在于互联网革命，信息革命。互联网、物联网、万物互联使世界形成了一个信息化、知识化的世界，也形成了一个万物互联的世界。它迅速的改变了各种业态，包括制造业的业态，服务业的业态，也包括贸易的业态。而贸易业态的变革，从根本上来说，就是一般贸易，加工贸易，小额便捷贸易和采购贸易，逐渐向E国际贸易转化的过程。所以从这六个方面来说，E国际贸易将是下一代贸易的主要方式，也是我们努力的方向。 大家会问，我们现在的跨境电商是什么呢？我们的新零售是什么呢？我们的平台经济是什么呢？刚才大家谈到的新零售EWTP是什么，智能贸易是什么，数字贸易又是什么？我认为，现今理清这几种关系至关重要。现在各种现行的跨境电商方式，包括B2B，B2C，C2C、2C等，都是E国际贸易的现在进行时，会逐渐转化为下一代贸易方式，其与E国际贸易的关系，就是现在与未来的关系。E国际贸易和EWPT是什么关系呢？就这个问题，我们和阿里巴巴研究院的院长高鸿宾先生也共同探讨过。它是一种贸易方式和基础设施的关系，E国际贸易是下一代贸易方式，EWTP是下一代贸易中的基础设施，是必不可少的新型贸易的平台。 E国际贸易和数字贸易又是什么关系呢？美国倡导的数字贸易，是数字品的贸易，交易的是数量产品，而E国际贸易是贸易方式的变革，是贸易业态的变革。 中国现在有能力也应该站在时代前沿，因为现在全球有几大最本质的变革。一是南北关系的重大变革和调整，新型经济体整体崛起，发展中国家新型经济体的整体崛起，其经济总量已经超过发达国家总量。第二个重大变革，是新旧动能的转换，这种动能转换导致了业态的变革正在迅速的发生。一种业态出现以后，只要它是新动能，发展就会非常快。当然，中间也会出现新问题。包括我们所说的跨境电商，包括共享单车，包括滴滴出行等等。新旧功能转换，这一重大变革现在正在全球风起云涌。 第三也是最重要的，是经济全球化的旗手意志。美国曾经是经济全球化的旗手，是贸易自由化的推手。特朗普当总统以来，他累了，六十多年了，这个旗扛累了，不扛了。现在是中国习近平主席在世界经济论坛上对全球化作出了新的诠释，明确向全球表示中国正推进全球化，是全球化的建设者，引导者。所以经济全球化的旗手易帜，是当中最大的变革。因为中国站在世界前沿，作为世界第一大贸易体，改革传统业态，创造新的规则，引领时代潮流，义不容辞。因为时间关系，理论框架和政策框架不再详细解释，有感兴趣的可以和我们联系。谢谢各位！文章选自亿邦动力网，2017年7月29日
2017年7月31日