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CCG持续关注国际关系议题，推动中国与全球化的发展，积极开展国际交流，充分发挥智库“二轨外交”作用，在巴黎和平论坛、达沃斯世界经济论坛、慕尼黑安全会议等重要国际政策与意见交流平台上组织分论坛、边会、圆桌会议、晚宴等活动，促进国际政商学界对话，凝聚共识；CCG积极与各国政界、智库界、工商界开展“二轨外交”活动，每年常态化赴多国调研与交流，促进中外关系攸关方互动，保持与多国政策圈层的沟通渠道。
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【新华社】2017年中国外交将有哪些看点值得关注？
时间跨入２０１７年。在世界范围内，和平与发展仍是时代主旋律。面对风云变幻的国际形势，2017年的中国外交将有哪些值得关注的看点？ 看点一：主场外交将有哪些重大活动？ 2017年，中国将有两项重大主场外交活动：“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛与金砖国家领导人第九次会晤。 虽然首次举办的“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛尚未公布具体安排，但外交部长王毅已明确表示：这将是2017年中国主场外交的重头戏。 “一带一路”倡议提出三年多来，已有100多个国家和国际组织积极参与和支持。有关人士认为，这预示着高峰论坛的规格之高、规模之大。 2013年秋天提出的“一带一路”倡议，是中国在新的历史条件下实行全方位对外开放的重大举措，也是中国主动为世界提供的一项推动共同繁荣发展的公共产品。除获得各方广泛参与和支持外，亚投行、丝路基金等创新性金融机构成立并运行，一大批“早期收获”项目顺利实施。 “‘一带一路’建设进入了一个承前启后的关键节点。”中国国际问题研究院常务副院长阮宗泽说，高峰论坛将是中国对“一带一路”建设进行阶段性总结、评估、规划的合适时机，也是同有关方深化互信合作、推动更多项目落地的有利平台。 2016年7月28日，一列从哈萨克斯坦驶来的列车在新疆阿拉山口准备入境。新华社记者 赵戈摄此外，将于9月在厦门举办的金砖国家领导人第九次会晤也值得关注。过去10年，金砖国家对世界经济增长贡献超过50%。但在当前世界经济形势下，金砖国家经济增长也面临一些严峻挑战。 外交学院教授高飞说，中国主办这次会晤，着眼于在复杂环境中提振金砖国家信心，寻求共同应对之道，使金砖国家继续当好新兴市场国家和发展中国家的“领头羊”。 看点二：中美关系将走向何方？ 当今世界，恐怕没有哪一对双边关系像中美关系这样牵动国际社会的神经。2017年，对于中美关系而言，也将是一个关键之年。 随着特朗普1月20日正式就任美国总统，美国将结束奥巴马执政时期，开启特朗普政府元年。专家认为，这一年的中美关系将“不确定”与“确定”并存。 阮宗泽认为，当前，中美关系面临的最大变量是特朗普采取什么样的对华政策。“短期内出现波动的概率，大于平稳过渡的概率。” 不过，阮宗泽同时也认为，中美关系不会出现全面对抗和冲突。这是因为中美关系的“不确定”中也有“确定”一面。 2016年5月21日，美国克拉克-亚特兰大大学学生在北京外国语大学与中国学生一起进行趣味竞赛游戏。新华社记者 张晨霖摄中国与全球化智库（CCG）主任王辉耀说，中美在经济上已形成你中有我、我中有你的格局。同时，日益频繁的旅游、留学等民间交流，也为中美友好奠定了深厚的民意基础。一系列全球性挑战更加需要中美合作发挥引领作用。 “双方的共同利益远远大于分歧。”王辉耀说，“如果把握和应对得好，就能化挑战为机遇。” 特朗普当选后，中方明确表示，合作是中美两国唯一的正确选择。对此，中国国际经济交流中心总经济师陈文玲表示，特朗普必须实现从商人到领袖的转变、从“政治素人”到执政者的转变。也就是说，美国新政府应当充分认识到，中美合作会给美国带来重大利益，从而采取稳健成熟的对华政策。 看点三：全球治理中的中国方案将如何升级？ “全球治理”仍将是2017年中国外交的一个关键词。 日前，在谈到2017年中国继续深入参与全球治理时，王毅提到了世界经济论坛、二十国集团、亚太经合组织、上海合作组织等平台。专家认为，与此相关的几个重要会议尤其值得关注。 2016年9月，中国成功举办了G20杭州峰会，针对制约世界经济增长的根源性问题开出“中国药方”，首次全面阐释了中国的全球经济治理观。2017年7月，G20峰会将在德国汉堡举行，创新、结构性改革、世界经济稳定与增长、应对气候变化国际合作等都将是德国担任G20主席国期间的议题。中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈凤英说，德方确定的议题同杭州峰会议题具有较好的连贯性。中方作为“三驾马车”成员，将继续抓好杭州峰会成果的落实，同德方加强协作，确保中方关心的议程继续得到推进。同时，也要注意英国“脱欧”、德国法国意大利大选等欧洲政治日程对汉堡峰会的影响。 此外，针对“逆全球化”、保护主义抬头与区域合作碎片化等问题，中方在2016年11月的亚太经合组织利马会议等场合作出了明确表态。陈凤英预计，2017年，中方将通过各种多边平台，进一步阐述中方观点、提出中国方案，发出全球经济治理的中国强音。 已有70多年历史的联合国，在新年第一天迎来新任秘书长－－葡萄牙人古特雷斯。中方表示，在参与全球治理的进程中，中方将继续发挥好联合国主渠道作用，用好中国－联合国和平与发展基金，巩固联合国在世界和平与安全事务中的核心地位。 “中国积极参与全球治理，既是主动承担国际责任，也是发展到现阶段维护自身利益的必然选择。”阮宗泽说，中国将尽力而为、量力而行，持续推动全球治理体系变革。 看点四：中国周边局势将如何演变？ 2017年，中国外交将继续关注周边，维护国家主权和安全利益，为国内发展营造良好外部环境。其间，最令人关注的仍是南海和东北亚问题。 “在南海问题上，小的摩擦还可能会有。毕竟争议不是最近才出现的，也不是一朝一夕能完全解决的，但难有大的风浪。”高飞说，过去一年的形势变化，特别是中菲关系转圜等，让越来越多的域内外国家认识到，只有和平对话才是解决问题的正确途径。 高飞说，中国坚持以“亲诚惠容”的理念处理周边外交事务，有关南海问题的“双轨思路”也正得到越来越多国家认同－－争议由直接当事国通过对话协商解决、南海稳定由中国和东盟国家共同维护。 、东北亚方向，朝鲜半岛局势存在诸多不确定性，各方围绕朝核问题的博弈预计将继续。韩国国内政治形势不稳，也给地区局势带来变数。 王毅日前介绍了中国在朝鲜半岛有关问题上的立场：坚持半岛无核化的立场不动摇，推动对话谈判解决的努力不放弃，反对在半岛部署“萨德”反导系统的决心不改变，坚决维护家门口的和平安宁。 高飞说，中方的立场是明确的、坚定的。有关各方对此都应有全面准确的认知，采取实际行动为地区局势改善创造有利条件。 看点五：十九大将如何布局中国外交？ 2017年下半年，中国共产党将召开第十九次全国代表大会。学者表示，党的十九大将对十八大以来中国外交的成绩和经验作出总结，进一步丰富中国特色大国外交理论体系，并对未来一个时期的中国外交作出部署。 公平、开放、全面、创新的发展观，共同、综合、合作、可持续的安全观，以深化亚非合作、拓展南南合作、推进南北合作为核心的合作观，共商、共建、共享的全球治理观，合作共赢的国际秩序观，义利相兼、以义为先的正确义利观……日前，王毅谈到了十八大以来中国外交的一系列创新理论成果。 习近平主席在新年贺词中说，中国人历来主张“世界大同，天下一家”。“我真诚希望，国际社会携起手来，秉持人类命运共同体的理念，把我们这个星球建设得更加和平、更加繁荣。” 中国现代国际关系研究院高级顾问崔立如认为，十八大以来，中国外交在继承中创新、在创新中发展，提出了构建以合作共赢为核心的新型国际关系、打造人类命运共同体等一系列重大外交理念和政策主张，已成为中国外交的旗帜。 “中国外交形成了独特的风格。”高飞说，这几年，中国外交在坚持走和平发展之路、坚持推动合作共赢的同时，更加注重主动谋划、积极作为。在国际局势大变革大调整中，中国高扬人类命运共同体旗帜，应时而动、顺势而为，必将为人类作出更大贡献。 “十八大以来，中国外交最鲜明的特点就是开拓进取。”阮宗泽说，“未来，中国外交会继续沿着这条轨道前行。”
2017年1月4日 -
花醒鸿：欧洲市场仍有空间，投资与挑战并存
花醒鸿，博龙投资集团亚太区董事总经理，中国与全球化智库（CCG）常务理事。 现在欧洲的发展态势，于我们投资者而言有巨大的市场。 有两个方面，一方面作为投资公司从资本的角度来看。由于欧洲,主要是西欧的经济处于调整期，有大量需要处理的不良资产，这同时意味着巨大的机会。欧洲与美国银行相反，欧洲银行所有的资产都在资产负债表上，所以一旦出现问题，造成的结果就是债务危机，而不是美国经常出现的房地产按揭的危机。最近的欧洲之所以有这么多机会，首先是欧洲经济不景气，无论实体经济还是从整个金融业，进而带来很多的问题。还有监管政策的变化。所以现在欧洲银行要在几年之内去杠杆化、清理不良资产，挽回经济颓势。但是银行清理资产的时候肯定有顺序，首先是它最不在乎的客户：房地产贷款和房地产按揭，所以目前很多处理的资产都是和房地产相关的资产。再往后就是实体经济，工业企业、各个行业的企业，以及老的客户，包括很多家族企业。所以如果要继续去杠杆化，势必要增加股权的比例，要去吸引投资者，无论是来控股还是参股，所以对于国内的战略投资者来说，这是一个良机。 而且现在欧洲整个政治前途不是很明朗，给经济带来更多不确定性，虽然对于欧洲来讲很不幸，但这实际上意味着很多潜在的机会。 第二方面，欧洲经济跟中国有巨大的互补性，既包括产业，同时贸从易角度来讲也是一样。最好的打破贸易壁垒的办法之一，就是要进入那些市场，形成一种真正的融合。让我们中国的市场成为它的市场，我们给当地创造更多的就业，研发团队还可以更多地利用本地发挥他们自身的研发优势、创意优势，这在欧洲是行之有效的，有非常大的协同效应，可以更好地促进双方的经济体甚至文化的融合。再加上广泛的政治方面的合作，这样会创造一个更好的环境，对于我们双方在经济、商业领域的合作非常有用。 实际上在投资期间，我们会遇到很多挑战，因为不同的国家有不同的文化。我们必须非常关注文化的区别，包括不同的商业习惯等等各个方面。在投资日本的公司时，我们公司为了更妥善地解决这些问题，延长了投资期，按照美国和日本政府的建议做有关企业的重组方案。 同时我们要非常谨慎地处理我们所买的不良资产。如果要是处理不当，不管是贷款客户还是银行本身，他们都会非常小心。所以我们在文化上要非常敏感，要了解，要设身处地为对方考虑，要有一个长远的眼光，要知道处理的是什么，要有一个长远的计划，不是靠短期的低买高卖。在处理团队、对于文化的理解，以及处理劳工关系、政府关系上，都需要额外的小心谨慎。这需要很多的经验和积累，但是这是非常重要的。 （本文根据嘉宾在中国与全球化智库（CCG）举办的“第三届中国企业全球化论坛”上的发言速记整理，未经本人审阅，转载请注明出处）
2017年1月3日 -
王辉耀：中国对外投资共赢效果显著
王辉耀，中国与全球化智库（CCG）主任。 当前世界经济整体复苏乏力，国际贸易和投资疲弱，同时贸易保护主义抬头，逆全球化趋势显现。在这样的世界经济大背景下，中国对外直接投资却逆势上扬，推动中国经济的技术进步和结构调整，同时对东道国税收和就业贡献增大，对外投资的双赢效果显著。目前中国的对外投资亮点纷呈，可以说是“风景这边独好”，实现了历史性的突破，流量已经位列全球第二，并超过了吸引外资水平，同时与美国的双边投资关系发生逆转，对美投资首次超过了美国对华投资。 中国对外投资持续大幅增长多年，实现了历史性突破。2015年中国对外直接投资实现历史性突破，流量首次位列全球第二，并首次实现资本净输出。中国对外投资已大幅增长多年。自2003 年以来，中国对外直接投资连续13年增长，且年均增长速度高达35.9%。进入2016年，中国对外投资规模持续扩大。据商务部数据，2016年1~11月,我国境内投资者共对全球164个国家和地区的7500多家境外企业进行了非金融类直接投资，累计投资金额1617亿美元，同比增长55.3%。 中国对外投资结构逐步多元化，并向着优化升级的方向发展。在中国对外投资的早期，投资主要集中于矿产、能源和基础设施等领域，当前，投资领域已非常多元化，涵盖了国民经济19 个行业大类。虽然中国对外投资在高技术领域和新兴产业的比重依然偏低。但当前这一趋势正在发生转变，中国对外直接投资正逐步向高技术领域、新兴产业以及现代服务业倾斜，在制造业、信息传输/ 软件和信息技术服务业上出现了大幅增长。据商务部数据，2016年1~11月,流向制造业的对外直接投资297.3亿美元，增长151.9%;流向信息传输/ 软件和信息技术服务业192.3亿美元，增长249.9%。 中国制造业走出去势头强劲。中国与全球化智库(CCG)研究编写的《中国企业全球化报告(2016)》蓝皮书显示，制造业是中国对外直接投资增长最快的领域之一，中国制造企业正通过资本不断向价值链上游延伸并扩大全球版图，增强国际竞争力。中国对制造业的投资2015年的增幅达108.5%，投资额占当年流量总额的13.7%。在企业并购方面，制造业优势尤为明显。2016年1~11月，中国企业海外并购项目561个，交易金额达824亿美元(包括境外融资)，其中制造业并购金额近230亿美元，位列各行业首位。制造业“走出去”有助于提高中国的制造业水平，深化在全球产业链上的布局，从而提升我国制造业的市场竞争力。 当前，虽然我国面临一定的资金外流压力，但中国企业和资本走出去对我国经济实力和国际影响力的提升，具有不容忽视的现实意义和推动作用。 首先，企业的对外投资不断推动着中国经济转型升级。与外商直接投资和进口贸易一样，对外直接投资也是促进中国经济技术进步和转型升级的重要途径。对外直接投资可产生逆向技术溢出效应。通过对外直接投资，企业与东道国本土企业开展研发合作和交流互动，获取并掌握前沿技术和要素资源，提升自身的研发能力和技术水平，并创新研发思想，经由公司内部渠道转移至国内母公司，从而实现母公司研发能力和技术水平的提升。另一方面，我国通过对外直接投资，将国内边际产业转移到较国内产业层次更低、更具产业扩张空间的国家，以此获得成本优势，获取产业转移价值，同时，也为国内高技术产业和新兴产业的发展腾出空间。通过这一过程，国内经济将会不断实现转型升级。当前正在实施的“一带一路”，使得以产业转移为目的的对外直接投资获得了机遇。 其次，通过对外投资，中国企业的国际竞争力不断提升。近年来中国企业海外并购活动频繁，借此获得了先进技术、品牌、海外资源、市场渠道、先进的企业管理经验等。目前中国企业的全球化战略更多的是全产业链上的全球化发展布局，使得企业国际竞争力不断提升。例如，紫光集团继入股台湾矽品精密和南茂科技后，于2016年5月收购惠普公司旗下新华三公司51%的股权，成为控股股东。通过收购，清华紫光逐步实现从芯片设计与制造，到设备研发、软件与系统集成的IT全产业链发展。 第三，走出去的中国企业正加快全球范围内的知识产权布局，推动企业的创新步伐。汤森路透发布的《2016年全球创新报告》显示，在家电领域全球排名前10位的创新企业中，有3家中国企业，位列前三，分别是美的、格力和海尔，发明专利数量远高于位列其后的松下、三菱电机、三星等企业。例如，美的集团全球化发展迅速，已拥有四级研发体系，在海外6个国家拥有7个生产基地，产品年销量近3亿台。在“走出去”过程中，为避免知识产权纠纷，美的将海外知识产权布局看得尤为重要，集团的知识产权战略从创新竞争力及品牌竞争力的布局、全价值链的风险管控、知识产权资产的管理及运用、信息战略指引等几个方面，为全球经营发展保驾护航。 此外，中国企业走出去更有利于我国争取国际话语权，推动国际新秩序。当前以英国退欧、欧洲民粹主义抬头、反对自由贸易的特朗普赢得美国大选为标志的“逆全球化”现象，并不能表明全球化趋势正在或将要发生倒退。全球化经济规律是现代生产力的必然产物，不可能被逆转。我们应顺应全球化的客观规律，以积极的战略和行动来推进它，要包容以TPP、TTIP、RCEP等为代表的各类区域自贸协定谈判，推动包容性全球化。 全球化依然是中国企业发展的方向，但随着中国企业“走出去”步伐加快，在对外投资过程中遇到了一些关键的困难和问题，突出表现在以下方面：参与国际标准制定的水平低;企业人才国际化水平不高;企业与国际非政府组织和工会沟通能力有待加强;企业品牌国际化战略受阻;应对法律风险和政治风险的能力不足。 针对这些问题，需要从其产生的根本原因入手，企业、政府和第三方机构合力加以解决，以使企业更好地“走出去”并“走进去”，发挥对外投资对企业自身发展和中国经济发展的作用。 中国企业对外投资仍需加强监管和引导。对外投资对中国经济和企业的意义不容低估。要使对外投资发挥其最大效果，政府相关部门要在坚持对外投资“企业主体、市场原则、国际惯例、政府引导”的原则下，将推进对外投资便利化和防范对外投资风险结合起来，密切关注一些非理性投资，比如金额较大的非主业投资，具有明显风险的投资，“母小子大”、“快设快出”等类型的投资，督促企业及时发现风险隐患，建议企业审慎决策。对于那些对实体经济无益、主要基于金融考量和财务决策的大型收购项目，要采取一些必要的临时性的限制措施。在监管的同时，政府还需发挥鼓励与引导的作用，为对外投资制定宏观的战略或指引，引导企业以技术和效率寻求为主的对外投资活动，推动企业的对外投资向有利于中国经济转型升级的方向发展。 企业要进行理性投资和必要的风险防范。在企业方面，在进行对外投资时要尽量坚持投资领域与主业的相关性，将投资向有利于企业技术提升和产业链布局的领域倾斜;在海外经营发展时，要不断规范企业的经营行为，完善与当地工会的对话机制，主动履行当地社会责任;在投资前和投资后，都要增强防范风险的意识和能力，购买必要的法律服务，对项目和交易对象进行全面深入的尽职调查，还要健全安全管理制度，落实安全风险评估。 总而言之，中国企业“走出去”是中国全球化的核心体现。未来中国全球化的发展取决于中国企业的全球化，中国企业的全球化取决于中国企业成规模、高水平地“走出去”。只有“走出去”，参与到全球经济合作与竞争当中，在全球范围内配置资源，中国企业才能提升自身竞争力，从而推动中国全球化的发展。文章选自第一财经，2016年12月29日
2017年1月3日 -
【论道】中国对外投资新趋势
对外直接投资跃居全球第二；对外投资流量超过吸收外资，成为资本净输出国；非公企业海外投资在数量和金额上超过公有企业……时间走过2016年，中国企业海外投资不断创下新的记录。如今，国际产能合作深入推进，“一带一路”沿线成为投资热点，随着国家发改委提出将进一步简化境外投资监管流程，这个发展势头，还将继续保持。与此同时，投资者的关注焦点也从新兴经济体逐步转向了拥有科技创新和成熟市场的发达经济体。驱动中国海外投资的关键因素是什么？未来五年，中国的全球企业战略蓝图又会是怎样的？2016年12月，在由中国与全球化智库（CCG）主办的第三届中国企业全球化论坛上，《论道》邀请了前外经贸部副部长、CCG主席龙永图，商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院院长、CCG研究员霍建国，中国工商银行总行专项融资部执行副总裁鲜红，复星集团副总裁钱建农，CCG主任王辉耀，中车股份有限公司副总裁余卫平，一起来展望中国对外投资新趋势。文章选自《论道》、腾讯网，2016年12月29日
2017年1月3日 -
【China-US Focus】He Weiwen: Can Trade Policy Break Up the Global Value Chain?
US president-elect Donald Trump wants to see the next generation of innovation and production develop only in the US, not in the rest of the world. In his latest speech on Nov 21, on his policy plan for the first 100 days in office, he said that “I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here on our great homeland America creating wealth and jobs for American workers”. He promised to “withdraw from TPP” and “negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry back onto American shores.”Before that, president-elect Trump made intemperate, often sensational attacks on trade during his campaign. He had a special xenophobia toward China, accusing China “stealing” American jobs. The accusation was based on the US trade deficit. Hence, he wants to kill trade deficits by production only in America. Trade deals would also be based on that goal.America Cannot Leave the Global Value ChainThe questions are: Can trade deficit be wiped out by production in America? And can production happen in America only?The traditional country-product and border-based trade balance concept has long been outdated. In today’s world trade, the production process, from product design, raw-material procurement, financing, manufacturing, final assembly, turnkey-providing, marketing and logistics, normally stretches across many countries. Many products in international trade are known as “global products”.A Boeing 787 plane is produced in 66 countries of the world, with the engine, deck-control system, aircraft body, vertical tail and auxiliary power supply made in the US; the front part of the aircraft body, central wing boxes and tires made in Japan; the engine, seats and ice-proof coating of wings made in UK; the passenger doors, landing gear and electric-brake system made in France; the central aircraft body, horizontal stabilizing wings and cargo cabin doors made in Italy, etc. Can Boeing bring it all back to the US? If so, America must leave the whole global value chain and rebuild the complete chain of aircraft R&D, supplies and manufacturing which is likely to take years and certainly at a higher cost. To make it possible, America must levy high tariffs on those parts supplied from UK, Japan, France and Italy. Those countries in turn, will challenge such moves at the WTO, and America is sure to lose. Then Boeing will find it difficult to survive the competition with Airbus. Don’t forget: Wilhelm Boeing, father of the founder of Boeing Company Bill Boeing, was a German who moved to America in 1868. Should America reject the world best technologies?The Apple iPhone is another case in point. Over 2,000 employees at the Apple company in the US engage in R&D. Japan and South Korea supply the screen, touch-screen, CPD and DRAM, accounting for 60% of the total cost. Other US suppliers provide the wireless telecom, power supply management, and the core electronic mechanism, accounting for 25.4% of the total cost. The Netherlands, France and Italy supply other parts. China — and possibly Vietnam and India — takes the final assembly, accounting for 1.6-2.0% of the total cost. Assuming that, for the next generation of the Apple iPhone, all the parts, apparatus must be made in America, and the final assembly line must also be built in America. Even if only the assembly line is moved to America (a very unlikely scenario), Apple will continue to import those parts from Japan, South Korea and Europe. If high tariffs are imposed on those imports, America will again lose at WTO. Let’s assume that all is back in America, or America leaves the global value chain. There will be a considerable retail price hike, taking away money from American consumers, including the workers. In that event, the Apple iPhone might be priced out of the world market by its competitors, leading to more American job losses at home.As early as in 1985, Professor Michael Porter of Harvard and chairman of the Industry Competition Committee of Reagan Administration, proposed a value chain concept in his book Competitive Advantage. In 2001, Gary Gereffi, professor of Duke University, put forward the concept of global commodity chains. In 2012, WTO, in collaboration with JETRO in Japan, published a report titled East Asia Trade Pattern and Global Value Chain: From Goods Trade to Task Trade. The new measurement is no longer the customs trade balance, but the added content and value in each of the countries along the supply chain, from design, material, manufacturing, assembling, marketing, all way to the end users. According to this approach, known as ownership approach, the US multinational companies are extensively knitted in the global value chain. In 2013, the foreign affiliates of American multinational enterprises (MNEs) took 28.6% of the American goods exports, and provided 36.6% of the American goods imports. Out of the global goods trade deficit of $702.6 billion that year, $385.8 billion, or 54.9% was caused by trade between parent and affiliates of American MNEs themselves. The only way to wipe out trade deficit is for American MNEs quit the global value chain, which looks unrealistic.Production offshore vs onshore depends on profitabilityHow to make sure that new production will happen in America, not offshore? A look back at the American multinationals’ recent offshore business could provide food for thought. During 2009 to 2013, the American MNEs’ parent companies onshore saw their total assets increase from $ 27,630.68 billion to $ 30,597.69 billion, up 21.5%; while their offshore majority-owned affiliates’ total assets increased from $ 18,775.26 billion to $ 22,734.35 billion, up 21.1%. The two grew at the same tempo. However, total employees increased only slightly onshore, from 22.93 million to 23.33 million, up 1.7%; employees offshore increased by 14.7%, from 107.94 million to 123.81 million. The reason is simple: Offshore operations provided higher added value rate, or higher profitability.The table shows that, $1.63 of added value was created by every dollar of employee compensation in 2009 onshore, compared to $2.38 offshore. In 2013, it was $1.90 vs. $2.46. In other words, the same labor cost created more added value in offshore operation than onshore operation. That’s why little progress had been made although President Obama appealed strongly for manufacturing moving back to America. If President Trump really wants to make it happen, all measures must be taken to make onshore operation generating higher profitability.Jobs taken away by technology, not ChinaThe above elaboration helps explain the global pattern of trade and production by American companies and the relevance with job changes. Another basic factor behind job changes is technology, rather than China.Among all Chinese exports to the US, computer and electronics is by far the largest category, accounting for 35% of the total. During 2013-2016, despite the continuous increase of imports, the American computer and electronics industry grew by 2.9%, 5.6%, 1.4% and 4.4%, respectively, with its production index hitting 114.1 in October 2016, while the total industrial production index was 104.3. However, total employment in the sector fell by 1.3% over the past 12 months. Higher production resulted in lower employment. Apparently, the reason is higher productivity. During the first nine months of 2016, the American imports of this category from China actually decreased by $ 8.51 billion.The aerospace industry is by the largest trade surplus sector in America. During 2013-2015, its global trade surplus grew from $ 75 billion to $ 82.5 billion, or a 10% rise. Its domestic production grew by 13%. Total employment in the sector, however, fell by 1.6%. The higher trade surplus resulted in lower employment. Again, the reason is higher productivity.Infrastructure investment and consumer goods innovation in AmericaThere are vast opportunities to accelerate the economic growth and job creation in America. The massive investment in reconstruction or renovation of railways, highways, bridges, airports and power plants will serve as a powerful engine for economic growth. Inadequate infrastructure investment is an important reason behind the lackluster recovery over the past eight years. Considerable job opportunities could be created, by infrastructure construction directly, and by downstream industries indirectly. That will be more effective than fighting imports.President-elect Donald Trump is right to encourage innovation, including innovation in consumer goods. In Japan and Europe, people can often enjoy new designs, new functions, new applications of day-to-day consumer goods, such as toothbrushes, rice cookers, air purifiers, and other home appliances, as well as new materials in home textiles and home furnishings. In America, there seem to be fewer changes. America adds close to 3 million to its population and over 1 million new homes each year, and is undoubtedly a growing market. Consumer goods represent a mass market. Constant innovation and creation will create new demand, and thus new production and more jobs.From China-US Focus，2016-12-23
2017年1月3日 -
【China Daily】2017: Change to what?
As a year of massive political shocks ends, and one whose outlines could not be more in doubt is just beginningThe world economy is likely to face many challenges in the year ahead, not least an extraordinary level of uncertainty.United States President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office on Jan 20 and has promised protectionist measures against China and a program of fiscal expansion.■ The Great Certainty: UncertaintyBritain’s negotiations on quitting the European Union are likely to begin in the spring around the time of French presidential elections, both of which could have major implications for the future of the EU.A worker at a car manufacturing plant in Zunyi, Guizhou province. The Chinese economy will struggle to maintain its momentum in 2017, economists say. Provided to China DailySo where does this leave China? The world’s second-largest economy enjoyed a relatively benign 2016 with growth stabilizing at 6.7 percent in the first three quarters.External events - not least the possible US tariffs on Chinese imports - could partly derail its economic progress.The Chinese government made clear its own economic agenda at the Central Economic Work Conference, attended by senior leaders in Beijing, in December.It set out six directions of policy: maintaining medium-to-high "new normal growth"; stability; supply-side reform; a new development concept focusing on innovation and the development of green technologies; improving quality and efficiency; and combining policies at both the macro and micro level that work for the good of the overall economy.Vincent Chan, managing director and head of China research for Credit Suisse, who is based in Hong Kong, says that for the first three months of the year China will be trying to work out what the new policy agenda will be in the US."This is the major uncertainty. You have a situation where not just China but nobody else understands what this is going to be. Politics is going to be the big issue, which will influence the economics."Chan, however, believes China’s growth, assuming no major external shocks, should increase to 6.8 percent in 2017, 0.1 percent up from the level achieved so far this year.It will be notched upward by export growth of 8 percent, compared with the 6 percent contraction in goods and services sold overseas in 2016, he says."The current high levels of infrastructure investment at two and a half times the level of nominal GDP growth will keep the economy steady at 6.5 percent, and exports will give it an additional push next year."Duncan Innes-Ker, regional director, Asia, of the Economist Intelligence Unit, based in London, says the Chinese economy will struggle to maintain its momentum in 2017. He believes growth will slow to 6.2 percent."What has driven growth in 2016, particularly in the second half, has been the construction sector, which has been related to the strength of the housing market," he says. (Property prices in the major cities have risen 30 percent over the year).Innes-Ker believes the current credit growth of 20 percent a year, fueling debt, is becoming unsustainable.He though thinks the government will wait until 2018 to tackle that, resulting in a hard landing, with growth slumping to 4 percent but recovering to 5 percent in 2019."If it doesn’t, there would be severe strains in the financial sector that would be very damaging in the longer term," he says.Louis Kuijs, head of Asia for the global advisory firm Oxford Economics, who is based in Hong Kong, thinks there will be no major change in economic policy until after the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China in November, when a new Standing Committee will be elected.He believes policymakers will manage to achieve 6.3 percent growth."Growth will continue to rely on policy support in the form of fiscal expansion and, especially, generous credit growth. We do not expect policymakers to significantly slow the pace of credit expansion before the party meeting."Edward Tse, founder and chief executive officer of the management consultancy Gao Feng Advisory, says he is not particularly worried about debt in the Chinese economy."It has never been proven what is a dangerous level of debt. I don’t think right now China is at any major risk."Tse, also author of The China Strategy and who is confident the economy will enjoy growth of between 6 and 7 percent in 2017, believes debates about investment in infrastructure becoming increasingly inefficient in terms of return miss the point."I do not believe they take into account all the multiplier effects of having a highly efficient transport system. They might say a high-speed rail line from point A to B is not worth it, but they fail to see the benefit from the point of view of the whole rail grid being improved by the additional line," he says.Chan at Credit Suisse says the main worry about China is not the industrial economy but the financial system, as evidenced by the weakening of the yuan. In the year to November it had depreciated by a trade-weighted 8 percent."It is a measure to some extent of how important the Chinese yuan has become as a global currency," Chan says. "I think it is less important than the US dollar or the euro, but now more significant than either the Japanese yen or the British pound."You can see this with market behavior over the past two months responding to the yen falling by 15 to 20 percent. There has been virtually no reaction. When the Chinese yuan falls by just 2 percent everybody seems to worry."The currency depreciation reflects concerns over rising debt in the system, shadow banking and bond market weaknesses, he says."It goes further than just being a matter of the exchange rate itself."One of the major concerns is whether Trump is serious about imposing trade barriers on Chinese goods, such as the 45 percent tariff on imports proposed during the election campaign.On Dec 22 the president-elect sent an ominous signal by appointing Peter Navarro to the new post of director of trade and industrial policy. Navarro, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, has been highly critical of China.Wang Huiyao, president and founder of the Center for China and Globalization （CCG）in Beijing, China’s largest independent think tank, believes the rhetoric seems to ignore the reality of a globalized world that relies on very sophisticated supply chains."This means that the iPhone is assembled in China and products sold by Walmart in the US are sourced from China. If we suddenly move away from this then consumers will be hurt - the very consumers who now seem set against globalization by voting for Trump and Brexit."We still live in a globalized world, and that is a fact. We sink or swim together."Tse, who is acknowledged as one of China’s leading business experts, believes that instead of putting up barriers, the US could receive a jobs boost from Chinese manufacturing investment in the rust belt.The Chinese automotive glass maker Fuyao opened a glass fabrication plant, which will be the world’s largest, in Moraine, Ohio, in October and created thousands of jobs."There is no reason why a Trump government should not welcome this kind of investment because it is not taking jobs from America but adding them," Tse says.However, he says, he is picking up sentiment from businesses that because of the uncertainty they may prioritize investment in locations on China’s Belt and Road Initiative and not in the US or Europe."More Chinese companies are looking to identify opportunities away from Europe and the US and are looking to central Asia, Africa, Southeast Asia and, in particular, are showing renewed interest in the Philippines after a major improvement in the political relationship between the two countries."One subject of increasing debate is whether the Chinese government will abandon its target of doubling its 2010 GDP by 2020 to become a high-income country by then.This was one of the central aims of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20).Wang, a state councilor on the Chinese State Council, or cabinet, who believes growth will remain about 6.5 percent next year, says targets play an important role in driving economic activity in China."The government mandate is to set objectives for people to reach, and therefore people are motivated. I think it is important that the government has set the overall objective to reach this target."Chan at Credit Suisse says nothing is going to change until after the key party meeting in the autumn, but he believes there is more nuance in the goal set than is often perceived."Being a high-income society is actually a relative concept. By 2020 China might be a high-income society because other countries have not grown as quickly as it has over the previous decade. It will have achieved its objective without doubling GDP. It is not a discussion the government will have in 2017."Chan believes that as the year begins, the main concerns will not be about the Chinese economy, as they were last year, but about other things."China’s real economy currently has less uncertainty surrounding it compared with many economies in the developed world right now. Last year there were discussions about whether China would significantly slow down. I don’t think that is so much an issue now." (By Andrew Moody)■ There but for the presence of China...Expert lauds country’s role as economic savior and as a guarantor of continued stabilityStephen Roach, the senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University, argues that world annual growth between 1980 and 2016 would have been just 2.7 percent - almost 25 percent less than its present 3.5 percent - without China growing at 9.7 percent during this period. Zou Hong / China DailyThe American economist Stephen Roach insists it is vital for the world economy that China continues to grow solidly in 2017.The senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University says that even with its "new normal" levels of growth its economy remains the engine of the world economy."If there is a dramatic slowdown in China there would be a period of weakness we have not seen at any period since the end of World War II," he warns.Stephen Roach speaks at a lunch organized by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a think tank in Beijing.Roach, also a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, was speaking before giving a presentation on "A World Without China", looking at what would happen to the global economy without China’s economic momentum, at a lunch organized by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a think tank in Beijing.In the talk at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Beijing, he argues that world annual growth between 1980 and 2016 would have been just 2.7 percent - almost 25 percent less than its present 3.5 percent - without China growing at 9.7 percent during this period.And that if China’s growth was to fall from the 7.6 percent achieved in the first three quarters of 2016 to 5 percent next year, global growth would almost halve from 3.4 percent to 1.8 percent."Without China’s growth the world will have fallen into a very deep recession after the global financial crisis, and that would apply now," Roach says.He argues that since 1945 the world has had a major growth engine with the US powering the world economy in the 1950s, Europe growing strongly for much of the period and Japan and South Korea emerging before China."If China is not there, I don’t think the US will provide it. I don’t think Europe will or the rest of Asia or the resource economies will. The world will enter a period of significant weakness."Roach says that among the worst hit will be the European economies such as Spain, Greece and Italy, which already have high levels of unemployment."There has been a lot of structural unemployment since the end of the financial crisis, and the hope has been that rising global growth would be able to absorb that. This, however, will not happen in a world without China."Roach, who was brought up in Beverly Hills, California, began his career as a research fellow at the Brookings Institution in the 1970s after his doctorate at New York University.He then went on to work for the Federal Reserve before joining Morgan Stanley in the 1980s.He first got to know China well in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s when he challenged himself to visit the country at least twice a month."For about five years I spent half my time there, and even now that I am teaching I still come four or five times a year."Roach, who financially backed the Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the recent election, is skeptical as to how Donald Trump as president can follow a fiscal expansion strategy while erecting trade barriers against China.He argues that the US would only be able to fund the resultant increased budget deficit with Chinese savings. US savings are 2.3 percent of GDP compared with China’s 40 percent."Fiscal expansion in a low-savings economy just spells bigger budget deficits and wider current account imbalances and trade deficits. This would put the US on a collision course with the protectionist policies that Mr Trump is also prescribing."Right now it is all blue sky and optimism (with the Dow Jones index hitting record highs in December) with little regard for some of the tougher issues which may be evident down the road."Roach, also author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China, fears the world situation is now worse than it was even in the inflationary era of the 1970s."It is hard to say from a geopolitical point of view but I think it is worse. You have the populist backlashes, the lack of appetite for trade liberalization and globalization."At the end of the 1970s we had high inflation, slowing growth, the specter of inflation but we worked our way through that by economic means rather than geostrategic cooperation."Roach was encouraged by the Chinese government’s Central Economic Work Conference in December, which placed emphasis again on achieving "new normal" medium to high growth and supply-side reforms."China’s push toward supply-side reforms is welcome and important but it is not an excuse for not rebalancing the demand-side of the equation."What concerns me is that there is almost too much focus on the supply side without continuing to underscore the commitment toward consumer-led growth on the demand side. You need both supply and demand to drive China to the next phase and to avoid the middle-income trap."Roach welcomes President Xi Jinping attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, next month and says it will be a chance for China to show leadership, if the West is seen to be retreating under Trump."They will want to hear that China is still committed to dealing with global issues from climate change to trade and also opening its markets and borders warmly to other nations."He also believes much of the debate will be about the future of globalization, a concept almost led by China with its vital manufacturing role in global supply chains."Just where is globalization heading? There has been a lot of push-back against globalization; that is what Brexit was all about, that is what the ascendancy of Trump is all about and that is what potentially the election of Marine Le Pen in France is all about."These are some of the pressures that will be actively debated and discussed at Davos."Roach argues, however, that as with 2016 there is still little sign of the world finally lifting itself from the global financial crisis."The theory of resilience of economic cycles is that economies in general are elastic organisms, so imagine holding a big rubber band. The further you pull it down, the faster it snaps back. We have had a very deep downturn but a very anemic snap back."There are still enormous headwinds in this post-crisis climate. If it had not been for China the world would be in a much weaker place." (By Andrew Moody)From China Daily，2016-12-30
2017年1月3日 -
张蕴岭：“一带一路”是个百年工程
【图片来源网络】张蕴岭，中国社会科学院研究员，中国与全球化智库（CCG）学术专家委员会专家。 与沿线56国签订双边投资协定、丝路基金成立……“一带一路”提出3年有余，从无到有、由点及面，取得长足进展。尽管如此，我们更应谦虚谨慎，充分意识到“一带一路”建设的长期性和复杂性。 不少专家学者包括政府官员对“一带一路”是倡议还是战略，仍不太清楚。事实上，“一带一路”内外有别，对内是大的发展战略。改革开放后，中国东部沿海地区发展快速，但西部发展一直相对落后。 我们搞过西部大开发，让沿海企业到西部去，充分利用东西部成本差异和市场纵深，但效果不太理想，因为西部还是缺乏外部拓展的空间。“一带一路”能让西部连接中亚、西亚和欧洲，成为连接外部的中心地带。 对外，它是合作倡议。通过“一带一路”可以周边为重点，实现地缘互联互通，构建开放的大地缘经济网络。我们一边连接有活力的东亚，另一边是发达的欧洲。历史经验告诉我们，单靠开放不能解决大多数发展中国家的基础问题。譬如这些国家对外开放了，但是路谁来修？居民的综合设施谁负责改善？这些问题单靠市场是没有办法解决的，需要政府间加强合作。 在国际舞台上，旧型国家合作关系常是发达国家通过对外援助的形式支持不发达国家的发展，但结果却是：随着时间的推移，发达国家的对外援助越来越少，所以并不成功，根本原因就是它在本质上是一种授予关系。而“一带一路”作为一种新型的发展合作关系，从开始提出到实施，一直都是立足于大家共同参与、共同建设、共享成果，根据当地需求来展开项目合作。 从具体实施层面来看，“一带一路”的新型合作关系需要不断创新，它没有一个现成的固定模式，而需大家一起去努力和探索。 “一带一路”首先提供了一个新平台，甚至不仅局限于经济领域，而是可以深入到政党合作、旅游文化、健康产业等各个方面。举个例子来说，中国的中医很有名，通过“一带一路”就可在沿线国家推广，让更多居民受益。 “一带一路”组建了一个网络，通过这个网络可以把不同组织机构的功能连接起来，让各种机制协同发挥作用。譬如亚投行的建立，直接推动新型融资机制的建设，它可以组织贷款、发行债券，也可以和其他现有金融机制进行合作。 与单纯吸引外资不同，“一带一路”更注重产能合作。“一带一路”建立了一种平等参与的新型关系，能够与当地的规划和发展需要对接起来，所以就有了产业园的构建。通过政府与企业合作的方式，一方面能够改善投资环境，另一方面也能带动更多中小企业的发展。中国传统意义的企业走出去过程中，一般只有大企业才能构建全产业链，譬如华为、海尔等。如果能通过“一带一路”拉动产业的综合发展，很多中小企业就能走出去，参与产业园的发展建设。 总之，“一带一路”是百年工程，不可能一蹴而就，在推进的过程中，其内涵、外延以及形式也都将不断发展变化。“一带一路”沿线国家的差异、风险等的确存在，但我们仍应“知难而进”，在推进时可让“志同道合者先行”，将困难少、风险小的项目先做起来。文章选自《环球时报》，2016年12月7日
2016年12月30日