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High hopes voiced for introduction of Foreign Investment Law2019年3月7日
Edward Lehman. [Photo by Wang Zhuangfei/China Daily] A new law, to be voted on during the two sessions, could be the most significant in terms of China’s opening-up since the country joined the World Trade Organization, according to a leading lawyer in the country. The new law will reduce the number of sectors on the negative list in which foreign companies are barred from operating, protect the intellectual property of overseas investors and ban forced technology transfers. Edward Lehman, managing director of Lehman, Lee & Xu in Beijing, said the Foreign Investment Law could create a new level playing field for foreign companies in China. "I don’t believe there has been as big an adjustment in the law as this since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001," he said. "It puts foreigners on equal ground, but in allowing increased competition in what were considered protected areas, it can only stimulate economic activity." The draft law was announced at the end of December by the National People’s Congress, the top legislature, which then asked for comments from foreign companies and all interested parties by Feb 24. Andy Mok, research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an independent think tank in Beijing, believes such legislation is vital if China is to advance to the next stage of its development. "China is moving into its science and technology phase, and technological advancement relies on intangible assets such as patents and protecting intellectual property. It is important there are moves in this area," he said. Jiang Hao, a partner in Shanghai for management consultancy Roland Berger, also welcomed the proposed law. "China will open up more investment areas and loosen many restrictions on existing industries, and this will present many opportunities for foreign companies who are interested in this huge market," he said. However, Jiang said it was not just the law but the implementation of it that mattered. "We can expect issues regarding transparency and inconsistency of execution that will create challenges. We believe the government is determined to tackle these issues," Jiang said. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China welcomed moves to streamline legislation into a single law. But Mats Harborn, president of the chamber, said it would have preferred more time to consider the legislation. "The law will have major ramifications for all foreign companies in China for the foreseeable future, so the drafting process must be given the due time and attention for such an important piece of legislation," he said. Lehman, who has been in China since the 1980s, said there is a tendency for foreign companies operating in the country to see the scales tipped against them. "At the beginning of China’s reform and opening-up, foreign companies were lured with the offer of tax breaks, which were not offered to Chinese companies, and there was resentment about this," he said. The lawyer said that despite the new law, intellectual property protection will remain a complex issue. "The new law will give companies who are in restricted sectors where they have to operate with a joint venture partner more protection against forced technology transfers," he said. "However, in reality, even foreign companies that operate as wholly-owned ventures might have to give away some of their IP when bidding for government contracts, for example. This is not unique to China but happens elsewhere as well." From China Daily,2019-3-1
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Zamir Ahmed Awan: New era in Sino-Saudi relations2019年2月26日
President Xi Jinping meets with Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Feb 22, 2019. [Photo/Xinhua]
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Xu Hongcai: Challenges and Changes to the Chinese Economy2019年2月25日
By Xu Hongcai, a Non-Resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). In the past year, a drastic change has occurred. The growth momentum of the global economy was strong in the first half of 2018, but it slowed down in the second half of the year, and the slowdown will continue over the next two years. The IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5%, compared with 3.7% last year. The USA’s economy is expected to grow 2.5% this year, compared with 2.9% last year. At the same time, the IMF also lowered the expected growth in Europe, Japan, and developing countries. Looking back to 2018, “black swan” events took place frequently worldwide. The economic policies of the major economies changed a lot. The international oil price, the stock market, and foreign exchange market quaked dramatically. Global foreign direct investment was shrinking. Global trade growth is slowing down. China’s economy as a whole has remained stable. There are several economic indicators: first, the GDP exceeded ¥90 trillion for the first time; second, the per capita income reached $10,000 for the first time; third, the volume of foreign trade exceeded ¥30 trillion yuan for the first time; fourth, the foreign exchange reserves remained above $3 trillion. These achievements are indeed hard-won. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 6.6%, but it also showed a declining trend quarter by quarter. Even so, China has still contributed about 30% of the world’s new GDP growth and remained a veritable engine of world economic growth. China’s economy has made steady progress and shown signs of improvement in five aspects. First, the economic growth rate was within a reasonable range. It is expected that China’s GDP will grow by 6.3% this year and by more than 6.0% in 2020. China is likely to complete the building of a well-off society in all respects by 2020. Second, inflation was stable. The consumer price index (CPI) grew by an average of 2.1% in 2018, and urban and rural residents’ income growth was roughly in line with economic growth. Third, the employment situation was good, with 13 million urban jobs created for six consecutive years. Fourth, the international balance of payments has reached basic equilibrium. The trade surplus has narrowed, and there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Both FDI and outward direct investment have maintained steady growth, and the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Fifth, we made positive progress in supply-side structural reform, improved the economic structure and raised the quality and efficiency of development. The investment structure was optimized, with investment in environmental protection and agriculture increasing by 43.0% and 15.4% respectively in 2018. The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2% of GDP and contributed 59.7% to GDP growth. Consumption as the main driving force of economic growth was consolidated, and the final consumption expenditure contributed 76.2% to GDP, 18.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. China made solid progress in pursuing green development, and energy consumption per ¥10,000 of GDP decreased by 3.1% over the previous year. However, China’s economy also faces new challenges. World economic growth will slow down in the coming years, and the economic policies of the United States, Europe, and other major economies are full of uncertainties. With the prevalence of protectionism, populism, and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system with the WTO as the core and the global governance are facing unprecedented challenges. In recent years, China’s foreign trade surplus has narrowed year by year. In 2018, China’s foreign trade surplus hit a record low with only $350 billion and will keep declining in the future. Meanwhile, the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into one between the people’s ever-growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. In recent years, with the increase in labor costs and the improvement of environmental protection standards, some low-end manufacturing industries have begun to migrate to neighboring countries. Investment growth is also weak, and it is difficult to keep relying on expanding investment to drive economic growth. At the same time, the growth of household consumption is not strong. High housing prices in first-tier cities have squeezed consumer spending. The growth of traditional consumption, such as in housing and automobiles, was weak, while the growth of emerging consumption, such as tourism, culture, information, pensions, health, and sports consumption, accelerated, but their share on the whole was low. In recent years, enterprises have significantly increased their investment in research and development. However, it still takes time to cultivate new drivers of economic development. The manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and the overall level of science and technology is still low. In the past few years, although we have kept the bottom line of no systemic financial risks and generally maintained financial stability, some local financial risks have inevitably emerged, such as the collapse of P2P platforms, default of corporate bonds, and volatility of the stock market, which have had a negative impact on the development of the real economy. At the beginning of the new year, we feel the uncertainty from the outside world while starting a new round of reform and innovation. There are favorable conditions: first, China has maintained political stability, and policy continuity and flexibility. Second, domestic demand is relatively stable and the market is huge. With the growth of per capita income, people’s demand for diversified consumption increases. Third, the role of innovation in driving economic growth is rising, and technological progress and industrial restructuring are gaining momentum. Fourth, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth. Fifth, the dividends of a new round of deepening reform and opening up will be seen. China’s policymakers are making new adjustments. The first is a proactive fiscal policy. China will cut taxes and fees, including corporate income tax and value-added tax, especially reducing the operating costs of small businesses so that they can carry out their business more easily. At the same time, China will create a sound business environment and reduce institutional costs. By the end of 2018, China’s import tariffs had been cut from 9.8% to 7.5% and will be lowered in the future. China will increase investment in infrastructure to promote connectivity and the free flow of production factors. So, there is a need to expand the issuance of special local government bonds from ¥1.6 trillion to ¥2 trillion. The fiscal deficit is likely to rise to 3% from 2.6% last year. Second, China will adopt a prudent monetary policy with an appropriate level of money supply, preventing violent fluctuations in the financial market, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, dredging channels for conducting monetary policy, developing multi-tiered capital markets, and preventing and defusing major financial risks. Third, structural reform policies will focus on building and nurturing new system mechanisms. In June 2018, China revised the negative list of market access for foreign-invested enterprises. In December, it released the negative list of market access for domestic enterprises (2018 version). It plans to implement the “one list nationwide” management model in March 2019 and fully implement the management model of pre-establishment national treatment and negative list. Everything that the market can do should be left to the market, and the decisive role of the market in resource allocation should be brought into full play. Meanwhile, the role of the government should be managed well to make up for market failure. In 2019, China will accelerate reform in key areas, especially in the reform of state-owned assets management and state-owned enterprises. China will focus on maintaining and increasing the value of state-owned assets. It will expand the scope for mixed-ownership reform, break the monopoly and encourage competition. Private capital will gradually play a leading role. Meanwhile, China will establish a modern fiscal and tax system, straighten out the relationship between the government and the market, and reduce the cost of government operations. In financial reform, China will improve the efficiency of financial services for the real economy. Large financial institutions should realize strategic transformation, strengthen internal risk control and improve risk pricing ability, so as to adapt to the trend of comprehensive operation of financial institutions and expand financial openness. China will encourage the development of private banks and other small- and medium-sized financial institutions. In my opinion, the most promising place for China’s economic development in the next decade is the rural-urban area. China is gradually establishing a mechanism for the two-way and orderly flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, promoting integrated development between urban and rural areas, rural revitalization, and the construction of urban infrastructure. In particular, China should deepen the reform of the land system, increase the application of new technology and improve the rural market system, promote the transformation of agricultural development from a small-scale peasant economy based on families to a modernized agriculture, and promote the development of urbanization by fostering new industries and creating new employment opportunities. With a large number of farmers turned into citizens, the consumption growth of Chinese residents has great potential. Looking into 2019, the difficulties in the first quarter may be large, but China’s economy is projected to stabilize in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will remain between 6.0% and 6.5%, and the CPI rise will be around 2.2%. 13 million new urban jobs will be created. Investment in fixed assets is expected to grow by about 6.5%. The growth of imports and exports will slow down, and the trade surplus will narrow to about $300 billion. However, the trade structure tends to be optimized, and the competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises will be enhanced. China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, cutting taxes and fees by about ¥2 trillion and expanding infrastructure investment by the same amount. Monetary policy will be slightly loose at the margin. M2, the broad money, will grow by about 9.0%. RMB loans will grow by about 10%, and the nominal interest rate will remain unchanged. By the end of 2019, the dollar-RMB exchange rate will remain within 7.0. In general, China’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the future. From chinausfocus,2019-1-31
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Zamir Ahmed Awan: Beijing, Islamabad committed to making flagship CPEC project2019年2月25日
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an example for the rest of the world. CPEC is one out of six planned corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in 2013. These corridors include the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC), New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB), China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCWAEC), China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor (CICPEC), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIMEC). All of these economic corridors are very well conceived and planned. The importance of each corridor is undeniable. Upon completion of all these corridors, the world will be transformed and enter into a new era. Global economic patterns will change and trade will take on a new shape. However, five of these corridors pass through more than two countries, and it is understood that the more countries involved, the more difficult it becomes due to cultural barriers and variations in political and economic conditions in each country. Similarly, distance also matters; the longer the corridor, the more time and money it may take to complete.Fortunately, CPEC is the simplest and the most feasible. It is a project jointly built by China and Pakistan, so it has fewer countries involved compared to the other five corridors. The 3,000-km-long corridor starts from China’s Kashgar and ends at Pakistan’s Gwadar, the shortest distance among all the corridors. Above all, the relationship between China and Pakistan is ideal, and there is little disagreement between these two countries. In fact, China and Pakistan support each other on all issues at the domestic, regional and global level. There exists a complete harmony. Due to all of these reasons, CPEC has been declared a flagship project, and the governments of both countries are giving it highest priority. Both nations are committed to making it a success. Whatever the difficulties or hurdles, both sides are committed to overcoming them and creating an example for the rest of world.To date, the people of Pakistan are enjoying the fruits of early harvest projects under CPEC. With the launch of CPEC, Pakistan’s GDP improved from 4.7 to 5.5. It was a big jump as the nation has faced many complex issues over the last 4 decades. The country was an energy deficient nation and faced a shortage of electricity. There was load-shedding for several hours on a daily basis. But under CPEC’s early harvest projects, around 10,000 megawatts of electricity were added to the national grid. Load-shedding minimized and almost vanished from the big cities of Pakistan. There are a few other power generation projects at an advanced stage of completion and expected to be completed by 2020. It is expected that Pakistan will face a smaller gap between supply and demand of electricity once all projects are completed in the next few years. The laying of optical fiber lines between China and Pakistan is another advanced stage project, and internet speeds will be improved greatly upon its completion. This will revolutionize the IT industry in Pakistan. It will also reduce dependence on sea-bed cables connecting Pakistan with the rest of the world. Due to damage to undersea cables, which are difficult to repair quickly, Pakistan has been sporadically cut off from the rest of world. A network of roads has been completed across Pakistan, and many more are under construction or in the pipeline. A strong network of roads has made Pakistan very well connected internally. It also has helped to improve connectivity and ultimately enhance business activities. Road networks have contributed to the nation’s socioeconomic development.The country’s railway system is also slated for a complete revamp. The Karachi-Peshawar Railway Line project, also referred to as ML-1, is in the advanced stage of finalization and may be initiated soon. Rail will become the cheapest and quickest mode of transportation for passengers and cargo in Pakistan in the near future. Fast-track industrialization is also expected, as special economic zones (SEZs) are being launched soon. There are nine SEZs in total, three of which are almost ready to be launched: Rashakai SEZ, M-3 Industrial Zone in Faisalabad and Dhabijee Industrial state in Sindh. The SEZs will rapidly change Pakistan’s fate.
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Shi Yinhong: China-US Competition in 2018 vs the Anglo-German Rivalry of 19072019年2月22日
By Shi Yinhong, Academic Advisor of Center for China and Globalization(CCG), professor of International Relations and director of Centre on American Studies at Renmin University of China. I see a pressing need to compare, from a strategic and political perspective, the Anglo-German rivalry of 1907 with the China-US competition of 2018 so as to reveal, in both scope and depth, the latter’s relative gravity and its potential to escalate into an epochal standoff or conflict. After that, I wish to express my serious doubt on the rampant “alarmist” rhetoric about that competition in both public and private domains.Let us begin by talking about the Anglo-German rivalry of 1907. At that moment, though the Triple-Entente involving Britain, France, and Russia was already in place and the Crow Memorandum caused a fundamental shift of Britain’s grand strategy, neither Parliament nor public opinion were able to see the gravity of the Anglo-German rivalry and the probability of a major conflict between the two countries.What made Britain deeply concerned about the rivalry was its construction of warships. The geopolitical challenge Germany posed was nothing more than moves against Morocco and Bosnia-Herzegovena, spheres of influence of France and Russia, two potential military allies of Britain, plus some overseas peripherals, such as Turkey and South Africa. In other words, Britain’s strategic front, the North Sea and the lowland countries, had not yet been exposed to German power.Now, let us make a parallel comparison with the China-US competition of 2018. First, US mobilization against China in 2018 has far exceeded that of Britain in 1904. Congress and public opinion were convinced enough to see China as a threat to the US and the world at large. All three camps in American politics - populist Republicans, establishment Republicans and Democrats - were basically united against China.In addition, the root cause for China-US competition is not limited to China’s rapidly rising strategic power. It also comes from China’s breakout in South China Sea and the “Belt and Road” initiative. In particular, what China has done in the South China Sea is viewed by the US as a major attack on its strategic front and its alliance system in the Western Pacific.What is more, the US views its standoff with China as far more serious than that between Britain and Germany in 1907. This, in my view, is because Britons had become used to the Anglo-German standoff. But China-US standoff has been blown so out of proportion largely due to US theatrics demonization of China.In describing the state of China-US relations, optimism, even guarded optimism, is not exactly the right word. However, we can look at the issue in a reversed way and make a balanced effort. For example, we can at least be skeptical of the alarmist talk about China-US relations, for the following reasons.One, the international power dynamics in the four decades before WWI was far stronger, far more complicated, and far less manageable. During the ten years of the 1860s, there were three countries, namely Germany, Japan, and the United States, that experienced a dramatic rise. Now, there is only one country, China, which is rising on the same scale. Still, China is lagging considerably, in aggregate strength and military capability, behind the established superpower, with a distance far greater than that between Britain and Germany at the time. China’s rise is relatively easy to manage.Two, there is a world of difference between now and then in terms of international law, ethics, and political culture. The world before 1914 was far more nationalistic and jungle-like, under the influence of Social Darwinism, and far less restrictive on inter-power rivalries.Three, today’s international mechanisms are far less dangerous than the pre-1914 “doomsday military machine” and “doomsday diplomatic machine” (in the words of Henry Kissinger).Four, as far as “third parties”, small and medium-sized countries that often served as catalysts to or a source of trouble are concerned, pre-1914 Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire had far more turbulent and danger-ridden structures and situations compared with present-day East Asia and the West Pacific.Five, the contemporary political and strategic culture of China, or its mainstream national experience, is completely different from that of Germany after Bismarck stepped down in 1890. The former retains the features of relative prudence, giving top priority to domestic concerns, staying away from risks, and not being afraid to make necessary compromises.From the above comparisons, we can conclude that the future, though largely uncertain, will definitely see more dangers than any time in the previous 40 years. The intellectual and political capabilities of China and the US are indeed limited, and the memory of people no matter where they live is transient at best. China and the US may still be miles away from the so-called “Thucydides trap”, but they are closer to it than any time in the past 40 years. Therefore, the half-empty view and worst-case-scenario thinking may be more advisable. Taking precautions and making advanced preparations may help prevent the worst from happening or defer its approach.From chinausfocus,2019-1-31
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Turning grey before getting rich: China’s ageing population2019年2月22日
At the age of 57, Mu Zhiming is coming to terms with the inevitable truth that he will take up residence at a nursing home in a few years’ time. With his son in the U.S. and a stroke paralyzing his wife, he has no one to turn to when in need of care. Though his monthly pension of 9,000 yuan (1,300 U.S. dollars) is already in the highest income bracket, he cannot afford the one-million-yuan membership fee of a private senior care center. To secure a spot at a rest home, he plans to sell his apartment. Mu is already one of the most fortunate among China’s elders. For the majority of the 249 million elders in the country, such an option is virtually unthinkable given that the average monthly pension is around 2,500 yuan (340 U.S. dollars). But with 17.9 percent of the country’s population now over the age of 60, and a generation of single children bearing the entire cost of supporting two senior parents - and perhaps grandparents too, elders in China are likely to face a tough reality as they grow older. National rush to old age China’s population is turning grey at an unprecedented speed. In 2030, the population is expected to start shrinking, according to a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published earlier this year. By 2050, the number of people aged 60 or older in China is forecast to reach 487 million, or 35 percent of the population. This figure is even higher than that in what are known as "super-ageing" societies, like Japan, where 33 percent of the population is over 60. An old man makes his way back to his apartment in an electric powered wheelchair at a senior care center. /VCG Photo "It took China less than 20 years to hit the scale of ageing that northern European countries achieved in 30 to 40 years," says Professor Huang Wenzheng, a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), in an interview with CGTN Digital. The one-child policy, in place from 1979 to 2016, transformed the family structure in China to a reversed pyramid where a single child supports two parents and four grandparents. "When I turn 70, my son, who would turn 40, would be at the peak of his career. Can I count on him to rush to my house every time I slip and fall on the bathroom floor? Even if I can, should I?" Mu wonders. There are not many options lying ahead for him. He could stay at home and hire a live-in nurse who would charge him as much as 6,000 yuan per month. He could also move into a local community center that provides senior care, but where, other than a bed, not much else is available. Or, he could live at a high-end senior care center, though it comes with a hefty one-million-yuan price tag and a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan. Elders read books at the library of high-end senior care center Kangning Jin in Tianjin, north China. /CGTN Photo Expensive costs aside, a cultural prejudice against sending old people to senior care centers has also made it hard for Mu to accept his likely fate. The concept of filial piety translates into an entrenched belief that the purpose of raising a child is to secure a caregiver in the future. To send one’s parents to a senior care center is a breakaway from such a social ethos and a shameful act. "The Chinese population is turning grey before becoming rich," says Professor Huang. The rapid speed of ageing caught the entire country off guard, with the senior care infrastructure unprepared for the ageing crisis. Untapped potential in senior care industry Senior care centers hold a rather bad reputation for being crowded with residents looking like nothing but hospital patients. But high-end senior care centers challenge such a traditional belief. At the age of 87, Yan Meiyi is still rosy-cheeked and a good conversationalist. After moving to a high-end retirement compound in Tianjin, north China, she says she "never felt old for a single moment." "There are always classes to go to, activities to join-I don’t have time to think about my age," Yan says. The private complex Yan lives in houses 1,200 elders who are mostly former university professors, intellectuals, government cadres and employees of state-owned enterprises. A timetable detailing the activities at the institution shows more than 10 types of classes organized every day, ranging from English courses, calligraphy, painting, and Latin dance - almost all are organized and taught by elders. Yan Meiyi (L), 87, poses with a friend at the senior care center. /CGTN Photo These self-organized activities in the senior care center are partly by design, says Xi Jun, the CEO of Kangning Jin senior care center. Encouraging residents to organize and participate in social events is to let them be aware of their value of existence, he notes, adding that seniors need much more than food and environment. "It is about cultivating a new lifestyle." In 2016, the State Council announced that the senior care market in China should be more accessible for private capital. In two years, the government removed the requirement that senior care centers must obtain a license in an attempt to lower down entry barriers to the senior care market. "The state has decided to let free market play its role in revitalizing the market," Xi Jun says. "Corporations can cater to the diverse needs of elderly people while the government can provide the basic minimum care for all elders through social security networks." Senior care at your doorstep In Japan, where the senior care industry is developed, a three-tiered system of integrated medical and elderly care services is in place. The first tier comprises elderly health and welfare centers in communities that provide regular services such as health checks and basic health care. The second tier is day care centers which cater to seniors living independently as well as semi-disabled elderly who need nursing services. The third is specialized institutional senior care centers where elders with disabilities are guaranteed full-time care. Elders wait in line to get lunch at a community senior care center in Fengtai District, Beijing, May 24, 2018. /VCG Photo Since 2011, China has been following a similar three-tiered senior care management model, whereby 90 percent of elders are expected to stay at home, seven percent at community centers and three percent at institutional senior care centers. In 2016, Beijing launched a pilot project that established 150 community elder care centers in six of the capital’s districts. Wang Xiuqin, a retired community worker, used to go to her community daycare center regularly. The center is funded privately with subsidies from the government. Most elders visit the center to have three meals. It costs them 3,000 yuan per month. Those who cannot live independently and are in need of special care pay a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan for extra services. "Regular health check-ups, such as checking blood pressure, and giving prescription drugs for minor ailments are not a problem," Wang says. But the amenities are in no way comparable to high-end senior care centers where medical rooms with full-time licensed doctors and registered nurses are set up within the premises. Kangning Jin high-end senior care center even deploys helicopters in times of medical emergency. "I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a decent senior care center," says Mu. But for millions of elders, the wheels of time cannot be reversed, and solutions need to come fast before it’s too late. From CGTN,2019-2-20
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Chu Yin: Japan set to host Trump a second time2019年2月21日
US President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a joint press conference after a summit meeting at Akasaka Guest House in Minato Ward, Tokyo on Nov. 6, 2017. [Photo/IC]
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Chinese Negotiators Head Back to Washington for More Talks2019年2月21日
Liu He during a trade talk meeting at the White House on Jan. 31. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators will start the next round of talks this week in Washington, after discussions in Beijing last week that President Donald Trump called "very productive." The talks will begin on Tuesday, White House Spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said, with Vice Premier Liu He then meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Feb. 21-22, according to a statement from China’s Commerce Ministry. The talks are picking up pace as the March 1 deadline approaches, Steve Censky, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s deputy secretary said, "but we still have ways to go." Trump has said he’s open to pushing back that deadline. He’s considering a 60-day extension for negotiations, people familiar with the matter said last week. There were still key differences in the positions of both sides at the end of last week and the threat of further escalation in the trade war if talks fail is adding to uncertainty for the global economy. The two nations’ presidents agreed on the current truce when they met in December, and it may take another meeting to finalize any deal. Trump has indicated he will need to meet with President Xi Jinping to agree on a final deal, and while no date has been set, a White House aide last week said the U.S. president still wants to meet with his Chinese counterpart soon in a bid to end the trade war. "Both sides sound positive and they’ve accelerated the speed of the talks, which shows that some kind of agreement is likely. Otherwise they don’t need to keep talking," said He Weiwen, a former commerce ministry official and now a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an independent research group. "There are many problems for sure, but I’d expect an outcome at this stage." Any agreement would be unlikely to solve all problems, according to He, but even a memorandum of understanding would be positive as it would create a precedent of discussing issues rather than fighting about them. From Bloomberg, 2019-2-19
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Andy Mok: Why the 5G future belongs to Huawei2019年2月20日
By Andy Mok, a non-resident fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). While the White House may think it is thwarting the 5G ambitions of Huawei by brandishing a big stick of dynamite, a closer look reveals that it is holding just a limp and soggy firecracker. For starters, the cost of building out a national level 5G network will be very high but the gains from being an early adopter will be broad-based, outsized and will accelerate rapidly over time. Meanwhile, as an industry, the telcos responsible for making these investments already struggle with profitability issues. In markets such as Europe, it’s not unusual for a telco’s return on investment to be below its cost of capital. Under this type of scenario, it will be foolhardy for policymakers to shun the most competitively priced equipment suppliers like Huawei even if it does not offer the most advanced technology. As such, it’s not surprising then that despite the torrent of threats from the U.S., Huawei has already signed more than 30 5G rollout agreements that include American allies like the Philippines and Thailand. And even the staunchest of American allies, the UK, may not be far behind.
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Jorge Heine: Latin America, the trade war, and the green economy2019年2月20日
By Jorge Heine, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, and a former ambassador of Chile to China.
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