自成立以来，CCG对国际关系和中国外交领域保持高度关注，深度追踪中国与美国、加拿大、欧洲、亚洲、非洲、拉美、澳洲、中东等国家与地区的双边经贸关系发展与变化，多年来致力于中美欧合作、一带一路、WTO改革、CPTPP等多边领域的研究，为政策制定建言献策。CCG在连续多年主办的年度品牌论坛设置中美关系、中欧合作等议题，积极开展国际交流活动，充分发挥智库“二轨外交”作用，常态化赴多国调研与交流，发布中美经贸系列中英文研究报告。常年主办系列圆桌研讨会，邀请来自美国、加拿大、英国、澳大利亚、日本、德国、埃及等多国智库专家学者、政要、商界精英、外交使节就国际关系与多边合作等议题进行研讨与交流。
-
张胜磊：向着构建人类命运共同体的目标不断迈进
文 | 全球化（CCG）智库特邀研究员张胜磊
2018年4月17日 -
Emanuel Pastreich: Too good to be true
So the headlines in Seoul yesterday were splattered again with articles expressing tremendous optimism about the remarkable breakthrough so clearly represented by the agreement of U.S. President Donald Trump to hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jung-eun. There was also no small amount of drivel about how thankful President Moon Jae-in is, or should be, for the tremendous consideration, and genius, shown by master diplomat Trump for this stroke of genius.Several commentators went as far as to say Trump’s brilliant move is certain to win him a Nobel Peace Prize. But does anyone really believe that Donald Trump ― a reality TV sensationalist, carnival barker Twitter-as-policy president ― can be trusted with anything, or that he has anything to do with the decision-making process behind this bolt out of the blue?Maybe you should pull out Naomi Klein’s classic book "The Shock Doctrine" and see how Washington operatives have traditionally employed completely unexpected events, or economic shocks, to shove their unpopular agendas down the throats of people around the world. The purpose is not peace, but rather confusion, and Trump is the emperor of chaos. Let us just look at the Paris Accord and the Iran nuclear deal framework for a sense of how much we can trust the Trump team. We witnessed the U.S. become the only nation to pull out of the Paris Agreement to address climate change and it did so over the objections of everyone in government and academics who actually know what they are talking about.In effect, the Trump regime is a post-reality regime bent on the destruction of not only the U.S. but the planet. How the Moon administration can trust them with anything, I cannot fathom. And in the case of the Iran nuclear deal framework, we have a complex diplomatic agreement put in place through a series of treaties approved by the legislatures of the U.S., the U.K., Russia, France, China and Germany. It cannot be pulled out of without showing complete contempt for international law and diplomacy ― which is what Trump did. So what are we to think? One day Trump calls Kim Jong-un the "Rocket man" and then threatens to destroy the North using nuclear weapons. The next moment he is ready to go meet him and make good. Are you anticipating a meaningful long-term breakthrough? The only way to understand this behavior is in terms of professional wrestling, an honored sport well known to the master Trump. In pro wrestling anything goes, literally anything. The only condition is that the crowd is satisfied, as in a gladiator fight in the Coliseum of the decayed Roman Empire. It is possible, of course, that Trump and Kim are feeling some positive vibes. Whether it is their "military-first" policies, their nepotistic and kleptomaniac habits or their cult of the self, they probably have lots to talk about. The summit, if it actually happened, would be more like a gag show, late night comedy akin to the Korean runaway hit "Non-Summit" which just happens to mean, appropriately, "ridiculous summit meeting." I fear the proposal is only a distraction. A meaningful summit would normally take place after a series of lower-level efforts to address trade and normalizations of relations. There first would be a formal visit by other high level officials to lay the foundations for meaningful discussions and also preparations to ease sanctions. But there is no sign of such a move. If anything, more strict sanctions are being prepared. We see Admiral Harry "war with China" Harris being sent to Australia to sit on those Aussies who might oppose the militarization of relations with Beijing.And we have Steve "trade war with China" Navarro, who may replace Gary Cohn as Trump’s economic adviser. And everyone knows this whole show is about "China, China, China" and that North Korea is just playing a Ukrainian role in the bigger circus tent. Sadly, it seems that many Koreans ― in the moments that they come up for air between playing video games on their smartphones, worrying about payments for their homes and their children’s cram schools (hakwon) and running around just to do their jobs ― do not have the time to think deeply about what is going on in this incredibly important March, 2018. It is a perfect strategy to distract the people with a fantastic dream of a Kim-Trump summit, like something out of the Book of Revelations.It keeps citizens from noticing how the #metoo campaign is being used to intimidate politicians, journalists and cultural leaders, how the Korean military is being suckered into a confrontation with China, how the Trump administration is using the GM factory closing and various threats of tariffs on steel and other products (with most of the threats never reported in the media) to bludgeon Korea into accepting a closer military integration with the far right in the U.S. and Japan through secret agreements not unlike the secret treaties that paved the road to World War I. About Author Emanuel Pastreich, a non-resident senior researcher of Center for China and Globalization(CCG).
2018年3月21日 -
Harvey Dzodin: The week that shook the world
What an amazing week. Head-spinning. So much has happened in the space of a few days, each with world-changing potential. The National People’s Congress convened. US President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, quit when Trump overruled him and announced tariffs aimed squarely at China. At the White House, visiting Republic of Korea’s (ROK) Chung Eui-yong, head of the ROK’s national security office, announced that Trump would meet with Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong Un before May, the first time ever that leaders of these two nations technically still at war, have met. Chung had brought a letter to Trump from his Monday meeting in Pyongyang with Kim initiating a Kim-Trump summit to “achieve permanent denuclearization”. This was a development that absolutely nobody expected; a Nixon in China moment. Even Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was caught unaware and said a few hours before the announcement that direct talks between the US and DPRK were still in the distant future. You have to give Kim credit for upgrading his place in the world since he gave his annual New Year’s address two months ago. It set in motion both his country’s participation in the Winter Olympics, some events conducted under a unified flag, and also Kim’s surprise invitation delivered there by his sister, Kim Yo Jong, to ROK President Moon Jae-in beginning state-to-state high level contact. Republic of Korea’s (ROK) national security director Chung Eui-yong makes a statement at The White House, Washington, DC, US, March 08, 2018. /VCG Photo Of course, it’s a very positive development. Considering that only a few months ago DPRK was called the hermit kingdom and Trump promised to unleash “fire and fury like the world has never seen” and was contemplating a limited nuclear strike to show the DPRK that he meant business. One of the most positive and rather unbelievable parts of Chung’s announcement was not only that there would be no missile testing for the immediate future but that Kim said he “understood” that joint military exercises with the US and ROK would go ahead as scheduled after the end of the Paralympic Games this month. Kim seems to have also partially accomplished what Ambassador Christopher Hill, who led the US delegation to the six-party talks on DPRK in 2005, feared most: the decoupling of ROK from the US. Kim knew that President Moon was deeply committed to improving relations with the DPRK and would be inclined to take steps, even risky ones, to do so, even independently from the US and Japan. Now with the proposed Kim-Trump summit, Moon will be pressuring Trump to make what could turn out to be risky deals on nukes and missiles. Personally, I am heartened but not optimistic. DPRK has a poor track record on both improving its relations with the ROK during the several multilateral negotiations that took place over the years. I am worried that this is just an effort by Kim to lift the onerous sanctions imposed on his country and obviously having a severe impact, get hefty financial aid all the while buying precious time to perfect the weapons and delivery systems and eventually breaching his obligations. These are all things the DPRK has done before prompting Robert Gates, former US Secretary of Defense, famously to say in commenting on this pattern that he was “tired of buying the same horse twice”. A man reads a copy of the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper featuring US President Donald Trump and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong Un on the front page in Seoul, Republic of Korea, March 9, 2018. /VCG Photo For China, the announcement is however a double-edged sword. China has responded positively to the developments as any war would have a huge negative impact on China in numerous ways. On the other hand, if Kim were to come out of his hermit’s cave, as he seems to be doing, in some respects Kim could become a sizable state actor in the region and act in ways that may go against China’s interests. And if I had Trump’s ear, I’d remind him that nuclear weapons aren’t the only weapons that can be placed on a short-range or intercontinental ballistic missile. DPRK is reported to have ample stocks of chemical and biological weapons (CBW). The UN confirmed this week that DPRK has been shipping supplies to Syria that could be used to make chemical weapons. I don’t think that the world would be any safer with every nuke removed from DPRK. Trump once said that he’d be honored to have a hamburger with Kim. Now he may get his chance. About Author Dr. Harvey Dzodin, a non-resident researcher of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), former legal advisor in Carter administration.
2018年3月14日 -
黄日涵：特朗普金正恩会面，先别急着乐观
【日前，美朝关系有了“重磅消息”：据CNN8日报道，韩国总统府国家安保室室长郑义溶在记者会上表示，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩邀请特朗普会面，而特朗普已经表示同意会面。如能成行，这将是美朝两国领导人首次会面。
2018年3月12日 -
Harvey Dzodin: DPRK has won the Olympics, but not in terms of sports
Psst! Psst! Want a hot tip on who’s going to win the 2018 Winter Olympic games in PyeongChang? I already know.
2018年2月26日
