全球化（globalization）一词，是一种概念，也是一种人类社会发展的现象过程。全球化目前有诸多定义，通常意义上的全球化是指全球联系不断增强，人类生活在全球规模的基础上发展及全球意识的崛起。国与国之间在政治、经济贸易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解释为世界的压缩和视全球为一个整体。二十世纪九十年代后，随着全球化势力对人类社会影响层面的扩张，已逐渐引起各国政治、教育、社会及文化等学科领域的重视，引发大规模的研究热潮。对于“全球化”的观感是好是坏，目前仍是见仁见智，例如全球化对于本土文化来说就是一把双刃剑，它也会使得本土文化的内涵与自我更新能力逐渐模糊与丧失。
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Xu Fangqing: A decisive step to be nailed down in Korean Peninsula
By Xu Fangqing, a non-resident fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG) and a senior editor with China News Week. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo finally made his fourth "successful" Pyongyang visit on October 7, where he was warmly welcomed by top Democratic People’s Republic of Korea leader (DPRK) Kim Jong Un. The trip which was originally scheduled at the end of August was cancelled last minute by US President Donald Trump due to his "disappointment" over DPRK’s efforts to fulfill the promise of "complete and verifiable" denuclearization. The overall five-hour journey on Sunday including a lunch with DPRK leader was a high-standard reception compared to Pompeo’s last Pyongyang visit. In fact, US Vice President Mike Pence, during his last Pyongyang trip in February, didn’t even get to meet Kim. Both sides spoke highly of this meeting and Pompeo himself claimed a "victory" for his stop in Pyongyang. Pompeo hailed "significant progress" and said they were "pretty close" to agreeing details for a second summit between Kim and Trump "as soon as possible" depending on the political climate in the US. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Kim Yong Chol, DPRK ’s senior official at the Park Hwa Guest House in Pyongyang, July 7, 2018. /VCG Photo But the second Kim-Trump meet would be different from the landmark Singapore summit that was held in June this year. Reason? US midterm elections! It could be the perfect showtime for Trump administration and Republicans to flaunt their achievements and abilities to the US voters. Therefore, during the much-anticipated second Kim-Trump summit many substantial issues could be on the table with huge expectations on both sides. As an envoy of president Trump, Pompeo branded his visit as a "step forward" in further normalizing the situation in the Korean Peninsula. During the much-talked-about visit, both sides discussed the timing and logistics of the next Kim-Trump summit, and expressed their sincerity towards holding the top-level meeting. The DPRK has also agreed to allow US inspectors into its defunct Punggyeri atomic testing site. The key nuclear testing site was shut five months ago by the DPRK in order to live up to the US’ condition of verifiable denuclearization As part of his delegation to Pyongyang, Pompeo brought along Stephen Biegun, his special representative to DPRK and the diplomat who’s expected to take on more of the day-to-day negotiating with his counterpart and DPRK vice foreign minister Choe Son Hui. This mechanism would bring benefits to the process of negotiations and preserve the achievements made during the past several months. The two special representatives are also expected to deliberate on further details of the second Kim-Trump summit. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, Beijing, October 8, 2018. /VCG Photo The fulfillment of the second Kim-Trump summit would at least be a signal that the consensus on some of the key issues regarding the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has been reached. And as we have mentioned above, the next Kim-Trump summit may not be far away, as the US midterm election is scheduled for November and Pompeo also said it could be "pretty close". However, the historic peace process of the Korean Peninsula takes not only the courage of innovative leaders, but also practical tactics especially considering the complicated situation in the region. Therefore, US State Secretary’s Asian trip also covered Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing. Obviously, US doesn’t take the Korean issue as a simple bilateral business which could be tackled with several meetings between the leaders of two countries. During the joint press conference in Seoul, Republic of Korea (ROK) President Moon Jae-in said that he would like to see another summit between DPRK and Russia, another historical and realistic player in the region. And it won’t be a bold assumption that a DPRK-Japan summit is possible as well. Setbacks are not inevitable on the way to the final verified denuclearization in the region without the support of the key concerning sides like China. However, the meeting between Pompeo and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi demonstrated the tensions as the two largest economies are in fierce trade disputes. US Secretary of State expressed frankly that the two countries now had "fundamental disagreements". Without China’s support, we see little chances to make real and irreversible progress on the denuclearization no matter how many breakthroughs US and DPRK have made until now, and in the future, as both sides still lack strategic trust. As an irreplaceable country in the region, China could provide the guarantee for the trust and agreement between US and DPRK. It would take much more efforts to balance the relations of all sides in the region before reaching ideal results. An effective bilateral mechanism is badly needed and so is a multilateral communications mechanism. This is the only way we could witness a positive outcome of the second Kim-Trump summit and even a new history for the Korean Peninsula. From CGTN， 2018-10-10
2018年10月12日 -
徐洪才：美联储加息，中国没必要跟进！
专家简介
2018年10月10日 -
Martin Jacques: Message to Washington: US does not rule the world
By Martin Jacques, a senior fellow of CCG, and a British journalist, editor, academic, political commentator and author of When China Rules the World.
2018年10月10日 -
Gao Zhikai: Martyr’s Day, a day of gratitude and re-dedication
By Gao Zhikai, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG) and chairman of the China Energy Security Institute. Today, September 30 is Martyrs’ Day in China. Top leaders of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese government and the Chinese military as well as representatives from many walks of life in the country will gather at Tian’anmen Square in the heart of Beijing and participate in a solemn ceremony to renew respect and gratitude of the Chinese people to those who laid down their lives and made the utmost sacrifice for the just causes of China and for protecting peace and advancing the development and prosperity of the Chinese people. The Chinese nation as a whole will go through a solemn process of renewing our gratitude for the martyrs and rededicating ourselves to the just cause of peace and development and for the betterment of life of the nation. September 29, 2018, Tian’anmen Square, Beijing: The red carpet is laid on the steps of the Monument to the People’s Heroes. /VCG Photo In China today, the martyrs to whom we as a nation renew our gratitude and respect include all those who sacrificed their lives for China since the First Opium War in 1840, including those who died in China’s struggle for national independence, against foreign aggression, occupation and threats, as well as those who died in peacetime for a better China. In China, to be recognized as a martyr posthumously is the highest honor and recognition that the Chinese government and the Chinese nation as a whole can give to those great heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice. The peace and prosperity that we enjoy today could not have been possible without their sacrifices, in wartime as well as in peacetime. Martyrs’ Day is just one day before the National Day, October 1, which is also significant and profound for the Chinese Nation. Every year, the National Day is always a day of national happiness and rejuvenation. Singing, dancing, an outpouring of joy and happiness of all kinds will take place throughout China. April 5, 2018, Kunming, Yunnan Province: Soldiers present flowers in front of the wall of the martyr. /VCG Photo Martyrs’ Day is a day of solemnity and heavy and deep soul-searching and reflection. To observe this day just one day ahead of the National Day is to keep reminding the Chinese nation that, without the sacrifices by the martyrs, there would not have been the fruits of happiness and peace and stability today. It also keeps reminding the Chinese nation that, in order to give greater peace and stability and happiness to the future generations in China, we need to be committed to working hard and be prepared to make all kinds of sacrifices, including the ultimate one when needed, for a better tomorrow. We are also mindful that many Chinese martyrs did not die on Chinese soil, but on foreign soil when they sacrificed their lives performing various kinds of international duties, as UN peace-keeping soldiers and officers in many war-torn regions and countries around the world, as workers and engineers in many infrastructure projects in Africa and other developing countries, as doctors and nurses in many disaster-relief missions and epidemic-control missions in many parts of the world. September 29, 2018, Nanjing: Yuhuatai Revolutionary Martyrs Monument. /VCG Photo China recognizes the glorious sacrifices of these heroic martyrs who passed away far away from home and their families and friends. This reinforces our determination that in addition to whatever we need to do at home, we also need to care about and dedicate to building the community of shared future for mankind as a whole. The world today is going through profound and fast changes. There are threats to peace, stability, and development, not only from forces of evil in the form of terrorism, extremism, racism, and bigotry but also from dangerous forces bent on damaging the WTO rules and disrupting normal business and trade in the world. Not only growth and development in the world are at stake, but the possibility of greater confrontation and armed conflict may loom larger on the horizon. The world today is at a critical turning point, and mankind is faced with a choice for a better tomorrow, or a worse one that is more threatening. Rather than giving in to these evil forces or major threats to peace and development in the world, we need to re-dedicate ourselves to defending peace, maintaining stability and promoting development at home and abroad. We need to make the right decision, take the right action and do the right thing in protecting and promoting peace and development in China and in the world. We need to make sure that the martyrs whom we honor today will not have died in vain. About Author Victor Gao, vice president of Center for China and Globalization(CCG), the chairman of China Energy Security Institute.
2018年10月9日 -
徐洪才：美股不会随着加息出现崩盘
专家简介 徐洪才，CCG特邀高级研究员、中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师。 北京时间9月27日凌晨，美联储将公布9月利率决议，目前市场普遍预计将加息25个基点；然而自2015年12月17日美联储率首次加息以来，尽管加息7次，也仅加息了1.75%；同时，本次若如预期再次加息，加上每年12月份板上钉钉的加息，美联储今年或加息4次，这也创本次加息周期以来的单年最频繁加息记录。那么，美联储如此频繁且大幅的加息意味着什么？对美国而言此举是否正确？又会对全球资本市场造成哪些影响？ 美元若不继续加息面临风险更大 美联储加快加息步伐的主要原因是由于其宏观经济面的影响。核心通胀率是美联储评估通胀前景和决定利率政策时参考的重要经济指标，此前美联储将通胀目标设定在2%，而9月13日显示的美国核心通胀率为2.2%、通胀率为2.7%。加上今年第一季度数据显示，美国失业率接近18年来的最低水平，这些都在表明美国经济的运行状况良好。 未来随美国就业市场继续改善推动薪资水平上升，以及美国政府对许多进口产品加征关税导致原材料成本上升，美国通胀压力将继续上升，股市泡沫进一步加大，如果后续美国不继续渐进加息，其所面临的风险将更大。 中国央行不会跟进美联储的加息 总体来看，因为中国经济基本面总体平稳、有韧性、回旋余地大，可选择的政策工具多，加上此次美联储加息符合大众预期，市场对其加息的影响早已消化，因此风险可控，但也要做好市场预期管理，加大资本流出监管，注重提振内需，扩大消费和投资。 对中国股市来说，尽管美联储的加息将会是利空消息，但因为中国A股在底部徘徊时间较长，进一步下跌的空间非常小；另外，虽然美联储加息对中国楼市也将产生一些负面影响，但中国楼市问题的主要原因在其自身，房价过快上涨将进一步推动泡沫增加，这是潜在风险，目前各地也都纷纷采取了管控措施，维护市场的相对稳定，避免其大幅反弹。 未来中国央行不会跟进美联储的加息。就中国目前的经济形势来看，下行压力较大，只有减息可能，不会跟随加息。且中国政策具有独立性，因此央行后续会为保货币相对稳定，采取既不减息也不加息的态势，但是会加强资本流出的管控，引导市场预期，保持相对稳定。 美股暂时不会崩盘全球金融危机概率极低 美联储的加息，对全球资本市场的影响是分化的：对欧美、日本等发达经济体而言，因其整体经济运行良好，且抗冲击能力也非发展中国家所能比拟，因此不会造成太大的影响。但是对美国股市的进一步上扬、通胀有一定的抑制作用。美股正处在“史上最长牛市”，之所以能保持近10年的牛市，背后有一个重要的“大功臣”——美联储，目前美国经济正在高位运行，因此美股不会如现在很多人预料那样随着加息出现崩盘，但到2021年，可能会出现周期性回落。 而对于新兴市场、发展中国家来说，影响是偏负面的，随着美联储加息、美元的升值、资本回流美国，会进一步加剧新兴经济体货币贬值的压力。个别的、金融体系脆弱的国家已经出现或还将出现金融危机或货币危机，但这个危机是局部性的、非全局性的、在所难免的。大家一直担心的全球金融危机应该还不会爆发。 文章选自腾讯证券，2018年9月27日
2018年9月30日
