全球化（globalization）一词，是一种概念，也是一种人类社会发展的现象过程。全球化目前有诸多定义，通常意义上的全球化是指全球联系不断增强，人类生活在全球规模的基础上发展及全球意识的崛起。国与国之间在政治、经济贸易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解释为世界的压缩和视全球为一个整体。二十世纪九十年代后，随着全球化势力对人类社会影响层面的扩张，已逐渐引起各国政治、教育、社会及文化等学科领域的重视，引发大规模的研究热潮。对于“全球化”的观感是好是坏，目前仍是见仁见智，例如全球化对于本土文化来说就是一把双刃剑，它也会使得本土文化的内涵与自我更新能力逐渐模糊与丧失。
- CCG南方国际人才研究院
- CCG北方国际人才研究院
- CCG一带一路研究所
- CCG世界华商研究所
- CCG数字经济委员会
- CCG南方国际人才研究院图片
- CCG北方国际人才研究院图片
- CCG世界华商研究所图片
- CCG一带一路研究所图片
- CCG数字经济委员会图片
- 成为系列论坛会员
- 成为系列论坛会员联系
- 概况介绍
- 兼职研究员
- 未分类
- 概况
- 全球化
- 全球治理
- 美国
- 国际人才政策
- 中美贸易
- 国际教育理念与政策
- 中国开放指数
- 新闻动态
- CCG品牌论坛
- 中国与全球化论坛
- 学术委员会专家
- 主席/理事长
- 中文图书
- 品牌论坛
- 研究合作
- 重点支持智库研究与活动项目
- 概况视频
- 主任
- 香港委员会名誉主席
- 关于
- 团队
- 国际关系
- 国际组织
- 加拿大
- 华人华侨
- 国际贸易
- 来华留学
- 区域与城市
- 媒体报道
- 二轨外交
- 中国企业全球化论坛
- 高级研究员
- 资深副主席
- 英文图书
- 圆桌研讨
- 建言献策
- 概况手册
- 副主任
- 理事申请
- 香港委员会名誉副主席
- 顾问
- 研究
- 国际移民与人才流动
- 区域合作
- 欧洲
- 中国海归
- 来华投资
- 出国留学
- 大湾区
- 活动预告
- 名家演讲
- 中国全球智库创新年会
- 特邀高级研究员
- 副主席
- 杂志
- 名家演讲
- 媒体采访
- 年报
- 秘书长
- 企业理事
- 香港委员会主席
- 国际顾问
- 国际贸易与投资
- 一带一路
- 亚洲
- 留学生
- 对外投资
- 国际学校
- 动态
- 名家午餐会
- 中国人才50人论坛
- 特邀研究员
- 理事长
- 媒体采访
- 文章投稿
- 副秘书长
- 活动支持
- 香港委员会副主席
- 国际教育
- 非洲
- 数字贸易
- 活动
- 智库圆桌会
- 常务理事
- 智库访谈
- 国际合作
- 总监
- 中国留学人员创新创业论坛
- 研究员
- 研究支持
- 香港委员会常务理事
- 国内政策
- 拉美
- 专家
- 理事
- 直播
- 捐赠支持
- 主管
- 中国国际教育论坛
- 个人捐赠
- 前瞻研究
- 澳洲
- 咨询委员会
- 企业理事
- 其他
- 捐赠联系
- 中东
- 成为理事
- 研究报告
- 建言献策
- 出版物
- 理事申请联系
- 智库研究
- 音视频专区
- 联系我们
- 观点
- 捐赠
- 工作机会
- 香港委员会
-
陶短房：白宫否认伊万卡出任世行行长，那下一任究竟会是谁？
文 | 全球化智库（CCG）特邀研究员陶短房
2019年1月22日 -
Victor Gao: Here’s a win-win zero-tariffs trade deal
Here’s a win-win zero-tariffs trade deal that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping should shake on By Victor Gao, vice president of CCG How the United States and China deal with each other in 2019 is of vital importance, as it will have an impact not only on these two countries, but on the world as a whole. The US-China trade war, unprecedented in scale and severity, has further increased the risks to peace and development. Fortunately, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Argentina on December 1, and agreed to a three-month truce before more tariffs would be imposed on Chinese exports to the US. Towards the end of December, Trump and Xi had a pleasant phone call and exchanged New Year greetings. In early January, the Chinese and US teams met in Beijing for extensive dialogue to hash out the details and narrow the differences on trade. Although there was no joint communique after this round of working-level talks, it is expected that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will visit Washington before the end of January for higher-level dialogue, and that Xi and Trump will review the results of this dialogue and decide how China-US relations should proceed. The world is holding its breath for what may or may not happen. The general expectation is that, for their mutual benefit as well as global economic peace, it is better for the US and China to move on from the trade war to what matters the most: development. It is important to note that, although the trade war involves mostly tariffs and should be more accurately called the tariff war, the fundamental issue facing the US is equal, unhindered access to the Chinese market, which has become the world’s largest consumer market. To help China and the US strike a better deal, I propose a reciprocal zero-tariff agreement. Some background: In bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies, there is a huge imbalance against the US. While the exact statistics differ between China and the US (because of the different benchmarks used), for argument’s sake, let us consider the most recent Chinese customs data. In 2018, US imports to China rose to US$155.1 billion and Chinese exports to the US to US$478.4 billion, which means that the US is running a trade deficit of US$323.3 billion (and China, a surplus of US$323.3 billion). Such a large imbalance is obviously not conducive to the constructive development of China-US relations. Yet, while Trump has emphasised the importance of balanced trade, it may not be realistic to expect an instant rebalancing, given the strong interconnectedness between the two economies. Over the past year, the Chinese and US trade delegations have largely been involved in bean counting. As important as that may be, it is high time to get a macro and fundamental perspective of bilateral trade. This is the rationale behind the reciprocal zero-tariff arrangement between China and the US, which would include the following key points. 1. Reciprocity: China and the US would impose zero tariffs on imports or exports between each other, in the amount of US imports to China. The figure would be adjusted every year, according to changes in US imports to China. So, for the past year, for example, China and the US would qualify for zero tariffs on US$155.1 billion of Chinese goods exported to the US and US$155.1 billion of US goods imported to China. 2. Tariff exemption or otherwise: A sizeable amount of Chinese exports to the US (around US$150 billion) are manufactured by US companies operating in China. The US government could use its discretion in granting tariff exemptions to these US companies or levying certain tariffs on their goods. 3. Normal tariffs or otherwise: for the remainder of Chinese exports to the US, the US could levy normal tariffs, the lowest possible tariffs, or zero tariffs. 4. Annual readjustment: As the amount of US imports to China would be used as the benchmark for the reciprocal zero-tariff agreement, the agreement would be adjusted according to the amount every year. Under this arrangement, both the US and China would be winners and there would be more balanced and sustainable trade between them. For the US, one key advantage of this arrangement is guaranteed greater access to the increasingly important Chinese market. There is no doubt that this arrangement would result in more US goods being imported to China, which would help create more jobs in the US. Initially, China could be uneasy about granting zero tariffs to all imports from the US, especially agricultural goods, but let us hope that both China and the US recognise the greater good that could be brought about by this arrangement. If this becomes a reality, both Xi and Trump should get recognition for their wisdom, vision and courage. While former US President Richard Nixon has been hailed as the leader who opened the door to China, Trump could go down in history as the one who opened up a zero-tariffs Chinese market for US goods, thanks to his repeated emphasis on reciprocity and fairer access to the Chinese market. This could be a happy, win-win arrangement for the people of China and the US, who would be able to put the trade war behind them and rededicate themselves to expanding economic engagement between China and the US for mutual benefit. There is no doubt the world will be a better and safer place with more trade, and fairer and more sustainable trade, between the two largest economies. About Author Victor Gao, vice president of Center for China and Globalization(CCG), the chairman of China Energy Security Institute.
2019年1月22日 -
崔洪建：脱欧闹剧暴露欧美政治“黑洞”
专家简介
2019年1月21日 -
李卫锋：修墙与关门，到底是“千年大计”还是“当下买卖”？
李卫锋，全球化智库（CCG）执行秘书长，博士生导师 新年伊始，由于“美墨边境墙”的资金一直没谈拢，在经历了两周多的美国政府“关门”之后，美国总统特朗普威胁称美国政府在接下来的“几个月或者几年”还会继续关门，直到“修墙”的资金通过为止，现在看起来局面“僵”住了，除非有一方让步。 当地时间2019年1月6日，美国总统特朗普乘专机从戴维营，返回白宫后接受记者采访，坚持要求为修建美国和墨西哥边境隔离墙拨款。图片来源：东方IC 在这个问题上，盘点一下可以发现，特朗普作为他自称的“说话最算数”的美国总统，当时的诸多竞选承诺，包括一些当初大家都觉得是“嘴炮”的一些“大事”，比如扩军、贸易战、减税、推翻奥巴马医保法案等等，都在某种程度上“实现”了。而当初看起来最简单的，美墨边境建墙计划，虽然连续弄了3次“政府关门”，现在甚至做出“关门几年”的威胁，看起来还遥遥无期。 为了弄明白这个事情，首先得从非法移民这个历史老问题说起。据统计美国境内的非法移民约为1100-2000万人，其中超过一半来自墨西哥，而加利福尼亚州则有逾250万非法移民。据相关研究和媒体报道，以非法移民为主的家庭超过60%享受各种福利计划；非法移民共有100万左右，包括20万有犯罪前科者在判处驱逐出境后滞留美国。 美国国土安全部报告显示，每年有近200亿美金的毒品从墨西哥贩卖到美国。屡禁不止的毒品交易和武器走私，带来的社会治安问题也让美墨两国政府倍感头疼，数目巨大的“存量”非法移民，给美国带来了复杂的社会问题和高昂的经济成本。 但修墙这事不是特朗普首创。 “美墨边界围栏（Mexico–United States barrier）”于2006年小布什执政期间，在激烈辩论和示威声中通过并执行，然而进度不如人意。直到2016年，修建长度都未达到预期，更严重的是，“围栏”断断续续，有着非常容易穿过的缺口。 特朗普对 “漏洞百出”的“围栏”是不满意的，这离他希望的“高大”、“漂亮”的墙有着不小的差距。因此，在2016年美国大选的时候，特朗普的主要竞选承诺之一就是修完整的“墙”。特朗普是第一个打破政治禁忌，称之为“墙”的总统，因此也获得了粉丝的热烈拥护，当然这也成为了最具争议性的话题。 那到底是不是只有修“墙”才能解决美国的非法移民问题呢？美国不管是从道德层面出发，还是从实际利益出发，都不可能驱逐现有的数量庞大的非法移民，亦不可能将现有的非法移民团体全部合法化（大赦），以上两种做法都只会使得矛盾更加激化，最后不可收拾。 那么，作为政府，为了安抚民众，平息争议，只有唯一的选项：让大家相信，政府会严格控制边境，不会有更多的非法移民入境美国，解决民众的焦虑。 当地时间2018年11月14日，墨西哥蒂华纳，第一批批来自中美洲的大篷车移民抵达美墨边境，其中一些人还爬上了美国建造的边境墙，向特朗普示威的意味明显。图片来源：东方IC 严控非法移民入境，是美国政府、两院和社会都有的共识，但是否修“墙”，差异就相当大了。中期选举之前，共和党掌握参众两院，墙没有修起来。如今民主党2019年1月3日就当家众议院了，修墙计划更是遥遥无期。 根据中期选举的结果，民主党拥有的众议院233席中，有186位明确反对，45位没有表态，只有2位表示支持，其中一位是有条件支持。而且更重要的是，在加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州、新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州4个美墨边境州的67位民主党议员中，61位明确反对，5位没有表态，一位有条件支持（Jackie Speier，来自加州第14选区）。 情况很明了，在政治层面，反对建墙的力量占优势，尤其是联邦层面。根据美国两院的政治制度设计，在“把持”众议院的民主党的反对下，边境墙相关法案几乎不可能通过。 但特朗普的“墙”并不是无人支持，其在民众中有着相当的民意基础。一名伊拉克老兵，“紫心勋章”获得者Brian Kolfage先生，在众筹网站GoFundMe发起了为“特朗普墙”捐款的活动，三天时间就募集到超过700万美元。 那么特朗普怎么办？如今已经不是在竞选状态，部分支持民众的游行、带着工具和水泥去边境支援、抑或发起募捐等活动，都不是决定性因素，唯一可行的，就是想办法使得法案通过。为了达到这个目的，特朗普进行了一系列眼花缭乱的操作。 首先，我们来看看民主党人反对的原因。主要原因很简单，至少在纸面上很简单：没钱。到2018年11月底，美国国债总规模达到21.8万亿美元，相当于当年名义GDP总量（约20万亿美元）的109%。 加上特朗普的减税大招，财政收入增幅明显收窄，才0.4%。而军费等开支迅速增加，政府债台高筑，2018年财年财政赤字同比增幅高达17%，所谓地主家也没有余粮，难怪反对的声音很明确：“完全是浪费纳税人的时间和金钱”。 在这个问题上，商人出身的特朗普自然门清，他一开始就口号式、创造性的提出让墨西哥负担修墙的费用，所谓新时代的“主动画地为牢”。当然，墨西哥没有那么上道，总统培尼亚明确表示墨西哥不会出这个钱。 紧接着，特朗普提出第二个方式，也就是所谓“间接付款”，先从联邦政府资金支付“造墙”费用，但最终会通过一个“复杂的形式”的“付款机制”由墨西哥政府承担。在2018年12月13日，特朗普声称最近签署的《美国-墨西哥-加拿大贸易协定》对美国有利，美国因此“赚取了”修墙的费用，当然此言论遭受了政敌的无情嘲笑。 在无数次声明不管是直接还是间接由墨西哥出钱的同时，在具体操作上，特朗普的手法非常经典和娴熟，态度非常强硬自信。由于美国政府债台高筑，无法通过长期的拨款法案。 自美国国会预算程序于1976年正式执行以来，一直通过短期支出法案来维持政府运转。而如果因为两党斗争或者其他原因未能通过短期法案，联邦政府就会“停摆”，只保留核心部门继续工作，而且还可能没有工资。自1976年以来美国政府一共“关门”21次。 2017年1月25日，特朗普签署了修墙的行政命令，但命令归命令，钱还在两院手里。为了要到这一笔据估计最多将达到250亿美元的巨款，2018年一年之内，政府三次停摆，创造了40年以来的最高记录。 特朗普用的方法就是“捆绑交易”，简而言之，你不同意我修墙，我就不同意相关整体预算案，特朗普曾表示，不通过“修墙”经费的法案，其他法案也别想通过。政府没钱了，那就先关门，或者按照特朗普的说法“光荣地关门”。 第一次发生在2018年1月20日，特朗普希望用“修墙”来交易 “童年抵美者暂缓遣返”计划，没有达成，停摆3天；第二次发生在2018年2月9日，一位共和党议员反对其中涉及增加赤字的部分并拒绝投票，“技术性停摆”3小时；第三次，创造历史的“跨年了”。 特朗普声称：“这也不错啊，我无所谓，我就是要为了边境安全而让政府关门”。当然，这不是新鲜事，历史上美国政府会故意关闭某些公共服务，用以影响公众，也就是所谓的“华盛顿纪念碑综合症”。 现在元旦已过，新年伊始，相信特朗普的“修墙斗争”还会继续不停地斗下去。相对于扩军、贸易战等“大问题”，边境墙问题看起来要“具体而微”。而正是这样一共具体问题，是特朗普心目中的头等大事，因为这直接牵涉到他的竞选承诺，更直接表明了他的政治主张，以及“领导力”。 所以这堵墙是否能解决非法移民问题——事实上墙肯定解决不了，特朗普不会去关心，他所关心的是，如何迫使国会通过法案，拨款修墙，甚至于如何向美国民众秀出他对于修墙一事的努力，并通过法案的交易，达成其他政治主张。 这样，他才能在在选民心中修起“心墙”，确保即便他其他关于扩军、贸易战等夸下海口的战略，没有达到“使美国更伟大”的经济和社会效应的时候，他还有“政绩”来为连任打下“民意的基础”。正所谓，政客不管墙何为，为了政绩强说墙，说的是民意、打的满是主义，到头来还是生意。 文章选自观察者网，2019年1月12日
2019年1月16日 -
Laurence Brahm: We have a smaller planet
By Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at CCG What are the differences between Chinese and Westerners in terms of their life attitude? I think those differences are becoming less and less, as there are more and more similarities. Those similarities are a factor of communication, trade, globalizing ideas, and the fact that we are having more global integration among more countries and cultures. You find Chinese people here drinking red wine and eating Western food. You go to America, and you find people eating Chinese food, Japanese food, Thai food and so on. You see Westerners learning traditional Asian martial arts. Now in the gyms trending across China, you see Chinese learning mixed martial arts fighting and Western boxing. The truth is that we have a smaller planet. This is a whole different era today. Chinese are all over the world. They are buying the international brands and, in many ways, driving the consumption of those brands. They have no barriers and no surprises. It’s not about seeing the foreigners, as they’ve seen the world. And they are bringing a lot of those ideas back, just like during the Tang Dynasty (618-907), when Chang’an was the melting pot and everything was coming in. In many ways, China’s major cities today, and now the second-tier cities, are melting pots. All kinds of international influences are coming in and mixing with Chinese culture in this kind of fusion complex, which has always really been the foundation of China’s own unique culture. It takes, it absorbs, it brings things together and it makes them uniquely Chinese. What’s happening is that we see more communication. With that, we will have more understanding, and a breakdown of barriers and stereotypes. You can enjoy my world, yes, and I can enjoy your world. In that sense, our world is smaller. What’s very important is if we can work together to save that world against the costs and threats of climate change, of human-induced pollution. Remember, this planet is just a little spaceship orbiting in a huge universe. We all have to work together to steer it in the right direction. While China was struggling with complete scarcity in the past, it is now one of the biggest buyers of luxury goods. Has the accumulation of wealth brought changes to the Chinese people’s value system? There’s a concept in economics called conspicuous consumption. When people suddenly have money, they want to show it. I remember when I just came to China in 1981, this was an economy of scarcity. There was nothing. You had money, but there was nothing to buy. Slowly with investment, with trade, with integration with the rest of the world, they began to have things. In the 80s, they began to have electronics, and they filled their homes with refrigerators, washing machines and things that they never had before. Previously, people had to buy their food that day to cook for that day, because there were no refrigerators. At the end of the 80s, people’s homes were filled with electronics. It was not about being able to meet their needs; it was about wanting to show others that they had accumulated their wealth. Then they began the cycle of brand buying and showing off wealth -- who has the bigger house, or who has the bigger car. But that’s not the narrative of the young generation in China today. I’ve seen more young Chinese as hippies in Nepal and India. They see the world differently from their parents. Today’s youth in China are coming up with really creative ideas and having a whole different vision of values, and of presenting those values not through conspicuous consumption, but alternative styles. The whole vision of the Chinese future is changing very rapidly with the new generation. You can’t lock onto the old conspicuous consumption and say that is China. That was China. But now with the millennial generation, and younger, it’s changing really fast. One of the things that’s happening now is that, with more and more foreign students coming to China and more Chinese students going abroad, a lot of the barriers that existed in the old generations are coming down, and they are coming down quite quickly. It’s one thing to read about China in the newspaper, or to see it on the news. It’s another thing to have gone to China to study, to work, to live, to be with people and to make friends locally. It’s this type of people-to-people communication. If it can be brought to the level of politicians, there will be no trade wars, and there will be no conflicts. It’s not a question of integrating Chinese culture with the world’s culture, or vice versa. I think it’s a question of expanding the bandwidth of understanding. The more we understand something, the less we are afraid of it. Fear arises from lack of understanding. Fear arises from the unknown. If we know, then we are not afraid. One of the things that happens to somebody when they leave their culture and live in another culture is that they evolve into that culture. You have in many ways a whole generation now of hybrid cultures and fusion cultures. I’d like to think of us as global nomads. We are international citizens who don’t necessarily belong to one culture or another. Hopefully we can embrace many cultures, and in that respect, bring our planet a little closer together. About Author Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an author of Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern China.
2019年1月16日
