全球化（globalization）一词，是一种概念，也是一种人类社会发展的现象过程。全球化目前有诸多定义，通常意义上的全球化是指全球联系不断增强，人类生活在全球规模的基础上发展及全球意识的崛起。国与国之间在政治、经济贸易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解释为世界的压缩和视全球为一个整体。二十世纪九十年代后，随着全球化势力对人类社会影响层面的扩张，已逐渐引起各国政治、教育、社会及文化等学科领域的重视，引发大规模的研究热潮。对于“全球化”的观感是好是坏，目前仍是见仁见智，例如全球化对于本土文化来说就是一把双刃剑，它也会使得本土文化的内涵与自我更新能力逐渐模糊与丧失。

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• 

  Xu Hongcai: Challenges and Changes to the Chinese Economy

  By Xu Hongcai, a Non-Resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).  In the past year, a drastic change has occurred. The growth momentum of the global economy was strong in the first half of 2018, but it slowed down in the second half of the year, and the slowdown will continue over the next two years. The IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5%, compared with 3.7% last year. The USA’s economy is expected to grow 2.5% this year, compared with 2.9% last year. At the same time, the IMF also lowered the expected growth in Europe, Japan, and developing countries. Looking back to 2018, “black swan” events took place frequently worldwide. The economic policies of the major economies changed a lot. The international oil price, the stock market, and foreign exchange market quaked dramatically. Global foreign direct investment was shrinking. Global trade growth is slowing down. China’s economy as a whole has remained stable. There are several economic indicators: first, the GDP exceeded ¥90 trillion for the first time; second, the per capita income reached $10,000 for the first time; third, the volume of foreign trade exceeded ¥30 trillion yuan for the first time; fourth, the foreign exchange reserves remained above $3 trillion. These achievements are indeed hard-won. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 6.6%, but it also showed a declining trend quarter by quarter. Even so, China has still contributed about 30% of the world’s new GDP growth and remained a veritable engine of world economic growth. China’s economy has made steady progress and shown signs of improvement in five aspects. First, the economic growth rate was within a reasonable range. It is expected that China’s GDP will grow by 6.3% this year and by more than 6.0% in 2020. China is likely to complete the building of a well-off society in all respects by 2020. Second, inflation was stable. The consumer price index (CPI) grew by an average of 2.1% in 2018, and urban and rural residents’ income growth was roughly in line with economic growth. Third, the employment situation was good, with 13 million urban jobs created for six consecutive years. Fourth, the international balance of payments has reached basic equilibrium. The trade surplus has narrowed, and there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Both FDI and outward direct investment have maintained steady growth, and the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Fifth, we made positive progress in supply-side structural reform, improved the economic structure and raised the quality and efficiency of development. The investment structure was optimized, with investment in environmental protection and agriculture increasing by 43.0% and 15.4% respectively in 2018. The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2% of GDP and contributed 59.7% to GDP growth. Consumption as the main driving force of economic growth was consolidated, and the final consumption expenditure contributed 76.2% to GDP, 18.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. China made solid progress in pursuing green development, and energy consumption per ¥10,000 of GDP decreased by 3.1% over the previous year. However, China’s economy also faces new challenges. World economic growth will slow down in the coming years, and the economic policies of the United States, Europe, and other major economies are full of uncertainties. With the prevalence of protectionism, populism, and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system with the WTO as the core and the global governance are facing unprecedented challenges. In recent years, China’s foreign trade surplus has narrowed year by year. In 2018, China’s foreign trade surplus hit a record low with only $350 billion and will keep declining in the future. Meanwhile, the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into one between the people’s ever-growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. In recent years, with the increase in labor costs and the improvement of environmental protection standards, some low-end manufacturing industries have begun to migrate to neighboring countries. Investment growth is also weak, and it is difficult to keep relying on expanding investment to drive economic growth. At the same time, the growth of household consumption is not strong. High housing prices in first-tier cities have squeezed consumer spending. The growth of traditional consumption, such as in housing and automobiles, was weak, while the growth of emerging consumption, such as tourism, culture, information, pensions, health, and sports consumption, accelerated, but their share on the whole was low. In recent years, enterprises have significantly increased their investment in research and development. However, it still takes time to cultivate new drivers of economic development. The manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and the overall level of science and technology is still low. In the past few years, although we have kept the bottom line of no systemic financial risks and generally maintained financial stability, some local financial risks have inevitably emerged, such as the collapse of P2P platforms, default of corporate bonds, and volatility of the stock market, which have had a negative impact on the development of the real economy. At the beginning of the new year, we feel the uncertainty from the outside world while starting a new round of reform and innovation. There are favorable conditions: first, China has maintained political stability, and policy continuity and flexibility. Second, domestic demand is relatively stable and the market is huge. With the growth of per capita income, people’s demand for diversified consumption increases. Third, the role of innovation in driving economic growth is rising, and technological progress and industrial restructuring are gaining momentum. Fourth, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth. Fifth, the dividends of a new round of deepening reform and opening up will be seen. China’s policymakers are making new adjustments. The first is a proactive fiscal policy. China will cut taxes and fees, including corporate income tax and value-added tax, especially reducing the operating costs of small businesses so that they can carry out their business more easily. At the same time, China will create a sound business environment and reduce institutional costs. By the end of 2018, China’s import tariffs had been cut from 9.8% to 7.5% and will be lowered in the future. China will increase investment in infrastructure to promote connectivity and the free flow of production factors. So, there is a need to expand the issuance of special local government bonds from ¥1.6 trillion to ¥2 trillion. The fiscal deficit is likely to rise to 3% from 2.6% last year. Second, China will adopt a prudent monetary policy with an appropriate level of money supply, preventing violent fluctuations in the financial market, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, dredging channels for conducting monetary policy, developing multi-tiered capital markets, and preventing and defusing major financial risks. Third, structural reform policies will focus on building and nurturing new system mechanisms. In June 2018, China revised the negative list of market access for foreign-invested enterprises. In December, it released the negative list of market access for domestic enterprises (2018 version). It plans to implement the “one list nationwide” management model in March 2019 and fully implement the management model of pre-establishment national treatment and negative list. Everything that the market can do should be left to the market, and the decisive role of the market in resource allocation should be brought into full play. Meanwhile, the role of the government should be managed well to make up for market failure. In 2019, China will accelerate reform in key areas, especially in the reform of state-owned assets management and state-owned enterprises. China will focus on maintaining and increasing the value of state-owned assets. It will expand the scope for mixed-ownership reform, break the monopoly and encourage competition. Private capital will gradually play a leading role. Meanwhile, China will establish a modern fiscal and tax system, straighten out the relationship between the government and the market, and reduce the cost of government operations. In financial reform, China will improve the efficiency of financial services for the real economy. Large financial institutions should realize strategic transformation, strengthen internal risk control and improve risk pricing ability, so as to adapt to the trend of comprehensive operation of financial institutions and expand financial openness. China will encourage the development of private banks and other small- and medium-sized financial institutions. In my opinion, the most promising place for China’s economic development in the next decade is the rural-urban area. China is gradually establishing a mechanism for the two-way and orderly flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, promoting integrated development between urban and rural areas, rural revitalization, and the construction of urban infrastructure. In particular, China should deepen the reform of the land system, increase the application of new technology and improve the rural market system, promote the transformation of agricultural development from a small-scale peasant economy based on families to a modernized agriculture, and promote the development of urbanization by fostering new industries and creating new employment opportunities. With a large number of farmers turned into citizens, the consumption growth of Chinese residents has great potential. Looking into 2019, the difficulties in the first quarter may be large, but China’s economy is projected to stabilize in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will remain between 6.0% and 6.5%, and the CPI rise will be around 2.2%. 13 million new urban jobs will be created. Investment in fixed assets is expected to grow by about 6.5%. The growth of imports and exports will slow down, and the trade surplus will narrow to about $300 billion. However, the trade structure tends to be optimized, and the competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises will be enhanced. China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, cutting taxes and fees by about ¥2 trillion and expanding infrastructure investment by the same amount. Monetary policy will be slightly loose at the margin. M2, the broad money, will grow by about 9.0%. RMB loans will grow by about 10%, and the nominal interest rate will remain unchanged. By the end of 2019, the dollar-RMB exchange rate will remain within 7.0. In general, China’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the future. From chinausfocus，2019-1-31

  2019年2月25日
• 

  Turning grey before getting rich: China’s ageing population

  At the age of 57, Mu Zhiming is coming to terms with the inevitable truth that he will take up residence at a nursing home in a few years’ time. With his son in the U.S. and a stroke paralyzing his wife, he has no one to turn to when in need of care. Though his monthly pension of 9,000 yuan (1,300 U.S. dollars) is already in the highest income bracket, he cannot afford the one-million-yuan membership fee of a private senior care center. To secure a spot at a rest home, he plans to sell his apartment. Mu is already one of the most fortunate among China’s elders. For the majority of the 249 million elders in the country, such an option is virtually unthinkable given that the average monthly pension is around 2,500 yuan (340 U.S. dollars). But with 17.9 percent of the country’s population now over the age of 60, and a generation of single children bearing the entire cost of supporting two senior parents - and perhaps grandparents too, elders in China are likely to face a tough reality as they grow older. National rush to old age China’s population is turning grey at an unprecedented speed. In 2030, the population is expected to start shrinking, according to a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published earlier this year. By 2050, the number of people aged 60 or older in China is forecast to reach 487 million, or 35 percent of the population. This figure is even higher than that in what are known as "super-ageing" societies, like Japan, where 33 percent of the population is over 60. An old man makes his way back to his apartment in an electric powered wheelchair at a senior care center. /VCG Photo "It took China less than 20 years to hit the scale of ageing that northern European countries achieved in 30 to 40 years," says Professor Huang Wenzheng, a research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), in an interview with CGTN Digital. The one-child policy, in place from 1979 to 2016, transformed the family structure in China to a reversed pyramid where a single child supports two parents and four grandparents. "When I turn 70, my son, who would turn 40, would be at the peak of his career. Can I count on him to rush to my house every time I slip and fall on the bathroom floor? Even if I can, should I?" Mu wonders. There are not many options lying ahead for him. He could stay at home and hire a live-in nurse who would charge him as much as 6,000 yuan per month. He could also move into a local community center that provides senior care, but where, other than a bed, not much else is available. Or, he could live at a high-end senior care center, though it comes with a hefty one-million-yuan price tag and a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan. Elders read books at the library of high-end senior care center Kangning Jin in Tianjin, north China. /CGTN Photo Expensive costs aside, a cultural prejudice against sending old people to senior care centers has also made it hard for Mu to accept his likely fate. The concept of filial piety translates into an entrenched belief that the purpose of raising a child is to secure a caregiver in the future. To send one’s parents to a senior care center is a breakaway from such a social ethos and a shameful act. "The Chinese population is turning grey before becoming rich," says Professor Huang. The rapid speed of ageing caught the entire country off guard, with the senior care infrastructure unprepared for the ageing crisis. Untapped potential in senior care industry Senior care centers hold a rather bad reputation for being crowded with residents looking like nothing but hospital patients. But high-end senior care centers challenge such a traditional belief. At the age of 87, Yan Meiyi is still rosy-cheeked and a good conversationalist. After moving to a high-end retirement compound in Tianjin, north China, she says she "never felt old for a single moment." "There are always classes to go to, activities to join-I don’t have time to think about my age," Yan says. The private complex Yan lives in houses 1,200 elders who are mostly former university professors, intellectuals, government cadres and employees of state-owned enterprises. A timetable detailing the activities at the institution shows more than 10 types of classes organized every day, ranging from English courses, calligraphy, painting, and Latin dance - almost all are organized and taught by elders. Yan Meiyi (L), 87, poses with a friend at the senior care center. /CGTN Photo   These self-organized activities in the senior care center are partly by design, says Xi Jun, the CEO of Kangning Jin senior care center. Encouraging residents to organize and participate in social events is to let them be aware of their value of existence, he notes, adding that seniors need much more than food and environment. "It is about cultivating a new lifestyle." In 2016, the State Council announced that the senior care market in China should be more accessible for private capital. In two years, the government removed the requirement that senior care centers must obtain a license in an attempt to lower down entry barriers to the senior care market. "The state has decided to let free market play its role in revitalizing the market," Xi Jun says. "Corporations can cater to the diverse needs of elderly people while the government can provide the basic minimum care for all elders through social security networks." Senior care at your doorstep In Japan, where the senior care industry is developed, a three-tiered system of integrated medical and elderly care services is in place. The first tier comprises elderly health and welfare centers in communities that provide regular services such as health checks and basic health care. The second tier is day care centers which cater to seniors living independently as well as semi-disabled elderly who need nursing services. The third is specialized institutional senior care centers where elders with disabilities are guaranteed full-time care. Elders wait in line to get lunch at a community senior care center in Fengtai District, Beijing, May 24, 2018. /VCG Photo Since 2011, China has been following a similar three-tiered senior care management model, whereby 90 percent of elders are expected to stay at home, seven percent at community centers and three percent at institutional senior care centers. In 2016, Beijing launched a pilot project that established 150 community elder care centers in six of the capital’s districts. Wang Xiuqin, a retired community worker, used to go to her community daycare center regularly. The center is funded privately with subsidies from the government. Most elders visit the center to have three meals. It costs them 3,000 yuan per month. Those who cannot live independently and are in need of special care pay a monthly fee of 5,000 yuan for extra services. "Regular health check-ups, such as checking blood pressure, and giving prescription drugs for minor ailments are not a problem," Wang says. But the amenities are in no way comparable to high-end senior care centers where medical rooms with full-time licensed doctors and registered nurses are set up within the premises. Kangning Jin high-end senior care center even deploys helicopters in times of medical emergency. "I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a decent senior care center," says Mu. But for millions of elders, the wheels of time cannot be reversed, and solutions need to come fast before it’s too late. From CGTN，2019-2-20

  2019年2月22日
• 

  Andy Mok: Why the 5G future belongs to Huawei

  By Andy Mok, a non-resident fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).  While the White House may think it is thwarting the 5G ambitions of Huawei by brandishing a big stick of dynamite, a closer look reveals that it is holding just a limp and soggy firecracker. For starters, the cost of building out a national level 5G network will be very high but the gains from being an early adopter will be broad-based, outsized and will accelerate rapidly over time. Meanwhile, as an industry, the telcos responsible for making these investments already struggle with profitability issues. In markets such as Europe, it’s not unusual for a telco’s return on investment to be below its cost of capital. Under this type of scenario, it will be foolhardy for policymakers to shun the most competitively priced equipment suppliers like Huawei even if it does not offer the most advanced technology. As such, it’s not surprising then that despite the torrent of threats from the U.S., Huawei has already signed more than 30 5G rollout agreements that include American allies like the Philippines and Thailand. And even the staunchest of American allies, the UK, may not be far behind.

  2019年2月20日
• 

  徐洪才：2019年中国经济形势与政策展望

  专家简介

  2019年2月18日
• 

  《流浪地球》是否可以不放弃全球一半人口？

  黄文政 黄文政，全球化智库（CCG）特邀高级研究员，“人口与未来”网站联合创始人，约翰霍普金斯大学生物统计学博士。 何亚福 何亚福，人口与生育问题学者。 　　《流浪地球》的热映点燃了中国人对国产科幻电影的激情。在太阳面临氦闪之际，人类齐心协力给地球装上万台核聚变发动机，开启地球流浪之旅，但在利用木星引力的弹弓效应进行加速时，地球陷入可能与木星相撞的绝境。历经惊心动魄的搏击，电影中的人物成功引爆木星，用爆炸冲击波推开地球，拯救了人类文明。这样恢弘的奇思构想不逊于任何一部好莱坞科幻电影，而精巧的视觉特效更是将中国电影工业技术推向了世界一流水平。《流浪地球》是中国科幻电影史上的一座里程碑。 　　不同于好莱坞科幻电影中人类离开地球去太空建立家园，《流浪地球》的故事是人类把地球改造成星际飞行器来逃离灾难。这种带着地球去流浪的设定更加贴合中国人对家乡和故土的眷恋，而建设无数地下城和发动机的宏大工程与引爆木星的壮举，也折射着中国神话中精卫填海、女娲补天和后羿射日的传说。电影主角刘培强最后驾驶空间站撞击木星更表现了中国古典文化中舍生取义的精神。 　　一、放弃地球一半人口是否必要？ 　　尽管对《流浪地球》赞誉有加，我们还是觉得电影中采用抽签方式放弃全球大约一半人口的情节并无必要。电影并未交待有多少人被拒绝进入地下城避难，但从故事定格在2075年来推算，在人类认识到太阳面临氦闪之时，全球人口大约在90亿左右。再假设海平面上升等灾难导致20亿人死亡，剩下约70亿人。电影中提到的35亿人居住在全球各个地下城，所以剩下的一半，即35亿人口应该是被联合政府利用抽签方式放弃的。 　　也许有人会说，危难之时，放弃部分人口是迫不得已，至少抽签是一种公平的方式。这种辩解似乎有道理，但从电影描述的场景来看却不太成立。如果说因为技术条件所限，在地球表面变得无法生存之前，人类仅有能力建造容纳几百万、几千万、甚至几亿人口的地下城，那通过抽签或其他方式遴选所能容纳的人口进入地下城来保持人类文明的延续，那或许还有一定合理性。但如果说有能力建造容纳35亿人的地下城，却要残忍地放弃另外35亿人则不合情理。 　　这是因为几百万、几千万、甚至几亿与70亿之间存在着数量级的差异，弥合这种差异需要的是变革性的技术手段，而这恐怕超出人类可控范围。但35亿与70亿的差距并不是数量级上的。从常识来看，这种差距可以通过社会妥协来弥补。换言之，如果地下城能够容纳35亿人，为何就不能够再挤一挤而容纳另外一半人口？从电影中地下城的生活场景来看，这是可以做到的。比如，电影中教室课桌排列就与目前日常所见没有区别，让教室中的学生数量增加一倍并非就无法承受。 　　如果说因为供氧量等物理限制，地下城超过35亿人意味着大家都会死亡，那放弃其余35亿人可以说是迫不得已。但如果说放弃35亿人，只是为了地下城里的35亿人生活得不那么拥挤，这种残酷就令人难以接受。 　　这点从家庭视角来看会更加清晰。假设一个四口之家在地下城能获得20平米的居住空间。现在有两个选择：一是不放弃任何家人，这样四个人每人只能获得5平米的居住空间；二是放弃两人，让剩下的两人每人可获得10平米的居住空间。我相信绝大部分家庭，都会选择不放弃任何一位家人。此外，也可以从个体的视角来思考这个难题。一是你有100%的概率进入地下城避难，但居住空间只有5平米；二是你只有50%的概率被放弃，但一旦有幸进入地下城存活，你能获得10平米的居住空间。如果你愿选择第一种方案来避免死亡风险，那就没有理由认为联合政府应该放弃全球一半的人口。 　　从现实来看，用抽签来决定生死可能会触发人类内部冲突。抽签后失去资格的人，会甘愿接受命运等待死亡到来，还是选择抗争？即便那些有幸抽到生存资格的人，心头也会被阴影笼罩，因为再遇上灾难自己也随时可能被放弃。一旦人心离散垮塌，人类即使不自相残杀，也无法共度时艰。 　　二、“适度人口”的影子 　　这背后的核心问题是，人类是否应该牺牲一半的同类，来让另一半人过上“想象中”略为宽松的生活？这种牺牲部分人的生存机会，让剩下人获取“想象中”好处的观念并不鲜见。所谓“最优人口”（Optimum Population）论就是其中之一。但这一概念自1980年后就几乎从国际学术界销声匿迹，原因除了倡导者有关“人口爆炸”的各种预测全部破产，国际市场上自然资源相对价格整体上持续下探之外，就是“最优人口”论本身在理论上根本无法验证，在现实中更是违反伦理。 　　选取何种指标来表达人口数量是否最优？这些指标又如何随环境、技术、经济、社会条件改变？这些条件的改变反过来又如何受人口数量的影响？这每一步都高度依赖于背后的假设，而每一个假设都存在巨大的随意性。这些假设相对于结论则是谬之毫厘，失之千里；即假设的一个微小变更，都可能导致“适度人口”的估算相差几倍甚至几十倍，远大于由这些结论所催生的政策对人口规模所能影响的幅度。这也是为何针对地球承载人口的估算从几亿到一万亿不等。 　　遗憾的是，“最优人口”论在国际上淡出的同时，却被翻译成“适度人口”在中国广为流行。实际上，当年中国人口学界将其翻译成“适度人口”就有刻意误导之嫌，因为“适度”暗示着超过了就不合适，需要减少。可以说，将人口数量控制在人为设定的目标以内的严厉生育限制政策正是“适度人口”论的实践，是电影中用抽签方式放弃一半人口的弱化现实版。 　　但自然和技术因素对人类生存条件有几倍甚至几十倍的影响，而政策在可预见尺度上的影响则要低至少一个数量级。由于人口惯性的影响，从1980年到2010年，即使按最夸张的估算，严厉的生育限制政策让中国少生不到2亿人，仅有中国2015年人口基数的15%。相比之下，中国年能源消耗在这期间却增长了400%。如果为了经济增长可以接受能源消耗增长400%，那少生不到15%的人口又有什么意义呢？即便不考虑被阻止出生的一两亿婴儿如果降临人世可能创造何种奇迹，这种严厉限制带来的人伦代价，又怎能为政策在资源消耗上非常有限的节省所弥补？ 　　三、人口规模为何如此重要？ 　　在提及牺牲一半同胞可能换来存活者略为宽松的生活时，我们特意加上“想象中”这个限定词。这是因为姑且不算这种牺牲带来的道德拷问和良性谴责，减少一半人口会让剩下的人生活略为宽松只是一种静态思维，在现实中的效果可能适得其反。这点在回溯中国计划生育政策及其影响的反思中可以得到印证。虽然该政策的初衷是促进经济和社会的发展，但现在看来却是加剧了中国的低生育率危机，对中国未来的发展釜底抽薪。实际上，聪明、勤劳、上进而且数量庞大的人口是中国的核心优势，但在过去几十年却被当成劣势用最严厉的手段消减。 　　科幻电影的制作也印证了人口规模是基础性意义。目前能拍出《流浪地球》这样大制作科幻电影的只有美国和中国。俄罗斯拍摄的《莫斯科陷落》虽然也是不错的科幻片，但其视觉特效难以比拟《流浪地球》。究其根源，俄罗斯电影在财力和人力以及市场规模上都难以望中美两国的项背。 　　参与过《流浪星球》制作的人员就累计达7000，而3.2亿人民币的成本也是《莫斯科陷落》的8倍。虽然《莫斯科陷落》曾居俄罗斯票房榜首达数星期之久，是其历史上票房收入最高的科幻电影，但最终收入也只有1.2亿人民币，不到《流浪地球》成本的一半。与之相比，《流浪地球》票房到本文起草时就超过12亿，至少10倍于《莫斯科陷落》。这种差距背后是中国有接近俄罗斯10倍的人口。 　　虽然《流浪地球》3.2亿人民币的成本，比起好莱坞动辄数亿美元的投入依然微不足道，但考虑到中国电影总票房近年会超过美国，而《流浪地球》的成功所激发的信心和热情可能催生资本的大规模投入，中国科幻电影的制作接近甚至超越好莱坞并非只是梦想。实际上，中国电影明星的片酬已经超过好莱坞影星，这背后正是中国巨量的人口规模和不断上升的收入水平。 　　当然，美国科幻电影能承担巨额成本的原因，除了美国是发达国家中人口最多的国家外，还有美国文化的全球影响力，包括英语地位让好莱坞在全球电影市场上占有优势。但归根结底，还是美国庞大的本土市场培育了好莱坞的强大竞争力，让其在全球市场上所向披靡，成为美国文化输出和软实力的代表。 　　同样地，中国电影的根基也在中国本土。伴随着经济水平的上升，巨大的人口和市场规模正是中国电影工业的底气之源。《流浪地球》的80后导演郭帆在接受采访中表示： “我管他外国观众能不能接受，我先服务中国观众“。尽管如郭帆坦言，这种态度恐怕还是因为现在还没有能力做全球视角的电影。但《流浪地球》的成功也说明，得益于庞大的国内市场，中国电影人只要服务好国内观众，就能厚积薄发，而不需要在剧情和观念上迁就国外观众，而这正是文化软实力的意义所在。 　　四、规模优势难以保持 　　然而，超低生育率正在动摇中国人口的根基。在育龄女性剧减和生育意愿持续低迷等因素下，中国出生人口在十年内有可能降到1000万以下，即跌回到鸦片战争时的水平。尽管届时中国占世界人口的比例依然还有17%左右，但出生人口将不到世界7%。如果无法大幅提升生育率，这种快速萎缩将一直持续下去。相比之下，印度每年出生人口保持在2500多万，是中国目前的1.67倍，十年后的2.5倍，而且这种差距会不断扩大。 　　尽管印度的经济发展水平还远不如中国，但在巨量而且年轻的人口支撑下，以宝莱坞为代表的印度电影业成就斐然，每年制作超过1600部电影，数量是美国的两倍。按观影人次计算，印度早已是世界最大的电影市场，在2016年就达22亿人次，远超中国的13.7亿人次。而印度经济增长率自2015年就超过中国，并在可预见的将来维持这一优势。从各种因素来看，印度电影业的后劲比中国更足。 　　美国电影业增速虽然比不上印度，但远高于中国的生育率及持续进入的移民，可能让美国年轻人口数量在本世纪末超过中国，再加上美国在文化软实力及英语方面的优势，美国电影业即使在规模上暂时被中国超越，也会在本世纪下半叶反超中国。 　　回到《流浪地球》中是否有必要放弃全球一半人口的问题，我们其实还只是指出，这种牺牲带来的有限好处不足以弥补其伦理代价。如果考虑到进入地下城避难的人们，不只是消极被动的难民，而是积极主动的创造者和建设者，可以用自己的才智和努力去改善地下城生活，那么放弃一半人口的做法就更不合理了。建设无数地下城和行星发动机本来就需要大量的参与者。谁知道因抽签被放弃的35亿人中有多少科学天才、杰出工程师或勤奋的工作者。70亿人有70亿个想法，其中只要有一个想法行得通，那就可能拯救全人类。放弃35亿人有可能就放弃了最好的出路。 　　两百年前，全球只有10亿人，马尔萨斯就认为粮食生产能力再也无法支撑人口继续增长，这种担忧与放弃一半人口的理由相似。现在全球人口已增至76亿，但比起马尔萨斯时代，人们不仅吃得更饱，更好，也活得更久，更精彩。不妨设想一下，如果从马尔萨斯时代就采用抽签或其他方式来限制生育，把全球人口控制在10亿以内，甚至放弃其中一半减到5亿，并保持各国人口占比不变，那么我们习以为常的计算机、手机、互联网、越洋航班、3D电影是否能够出现？即使能够出现，这些技术能以现在这种速度不断迭代进步吗？ 　　可以说，现代技术和生活方式高度依赖于全球巨量的人口规模。人类文明史是一部人口增长与技术进步相伴而行的历史。人类的技术进步受益于人口增长，因为人口众多是需求多元化和细分以及供给专业化和规模化的基础。然而，随着避孕方式的普及以及工业化和信息化时代的来临，世界生育率大幅下降。虽然全球人口还会增长几十年，人口总量见顶已经遥遥在望。即便按照宽松的估计，全球人口也不可能超过150亿。而一旦进入负增长，随之而来的将是无止境的人口萎缩。 　　《流浪地球》原著小说作者刘慈欣在2014年接受腾讯文化采访时曾表示，技术发展会扩大人类的生存空间，让人类面对灾难有更大的生存机会，所以最大的危险就是技术发展的停滞。在我们看来，世界人口从持续的增长进入持续的衰减可能就是技术发展停滞，乃至人类文明由盛转衰的先兆，在这个衰减过程，生育意愿全球最低的中华文明将可能是第一个倒下的主要文明。 　　可以想见，如果人类自然增长到一万亿，在让地球不堪重负之前，人类就有足够的动力将家园扩展到太空。这种未来的发展可能远远超出我们今天的想象，就是一千年前的人无法想象76亿人口的地球今天的生活方式。但如果按目前的趋势，人类在达到150亿之前就会开始持续萎缩，那么人类将没有动力离开地球，我们的后代将永远屈居在茫茫宇宙中这颗小小的星球。 　　五、价值观决定文明的归宿 　　回到电影《流浪地球》，我们相信对生命的尊重是贯穿这部电影的基本价值取向。比如，情绪失控的救援队女队员高喊“不能再死人了”而击碎火石来阻止无谓的牺牲；流浪地球计划本身要延续100代人的构想就将人类繁衍置于文明延续的核心环节；刘培强对俄罗斯宇航员说：“我们还有孩子，孩子还有孩子，总有一天贝加尔湖会解冻的”；在最后说服人工智能MOSS时，他直言：“没有人类的文明，不叫人类文明”。 　　特别是，带上地球而非逃离地球的计划本身，就能够最大程度地保存人类的生命。根据原著小说，针对拯救方案的意见分为两派。一派提议建造飞船运载少量人逃离，但这派最后输给了流浪地球派，后者坚信只有像地球这样规模的生态系统，才能维持生命万代不息和人类文明的延续。 　　因此，电影中放弃全球一半人口的情节，或许只是为了表现灾变对人类挑战的残酷，而不是对这种残酷的认可。正如刘慈欣曾坦言，我们对那种灭顶之灾下的道德体系、价值体系没有任何思想上的准备。但不管如何，这个情节很容易让观众联想到严厉的生育限制和户籍控制、以及用抽签决定购车资格这样“北京折叠”似的政策背景。 　　但如果把情节改为竭尽全力来拯救每个生命，不仅可以避免这种尴尬的联想，更可倡导更健康，更感人的价值观。设想一下，尽管地下城起初设计容纳70亿人，但因为外部干扰，只按时完成了一半的容量。面对这种困境，联合政府鼓励人们相互包容，尽最大可能不放弃每个生命，最终把所有活着的人都接入地下城避难。而进入地下城的人们，发挥非凡的创造力在原有基础上扩容，显著改善了地下生活环境。 　　这种看起来情感超越理性的构想，正是一些经典电影一再推崇并广受赞誉的情节。比如，好莱坞科幻片《火星拯救》就是讲述火星探险队在遭遇风暴而撤离火星之后，有人发现原来被认为已经殉职的宇航员可能还存留在火星上，从而启动营救计划。这类情节的感人之处是体现了永不放弃的坚持和乐观向上的精神，以及对每个个体生命的尊重，而这正是人类文明能延续至今并兴旺发达的内在动力。 　　如果把人类文明想象成在所有可能性的状态空间中旅行的飞船，那么决定这个飞船空间轨迹的是自然定律和人文情感。对文明演化来说，自然定律确定外在限制，而人文情感引导内在方向。科幻艺术打破了人类对现实世界中的有限认知，让想象力把故事的演绎推到自然和人文互动关系的极限。因此，集表演艺术精华于一身的科幻电影是一个社会对自身文明探索和思考的完美载体。 　　也正是在这种意义下，我们希望中国科幻电影倡导那种更具感染力，更激励人心的价值观，让中国的人文内核能够成为托起人类文明的重要底色。毫无疑问，《流浪地球》在这个方向上迈出了坚实的一步，我们就此向原著作者刘慈欣、导演郭帆和带资加入的主演吴京以及无数参与制作的电影人深表敬意。最后，我们强调，体现人文情感倾向的价值观决定着文明的归宿；我们做出何种选择决定我们成就什么样的文明。正如电影中刘培强在说服MOSS接受他的撞击木星计划时所强调，“无论最终结果将人类历史导向何处，我们决定，选择希望。”在我们看来，最能体现这种价值观和乐观精神的就是，竭尽所能，不放弃每一个生命。 文章选自新浪财经，2019年2月10日

  2019年2月15日