B&R reshaping economies, trade

Fundamentally different from previous Western model A freight train departs from Nanchang, East China’s Jiangxi Province to Hanoi, capital of Vietnam. Photo: VCG A freight train operated by China Railway Express, which links China and Eurasia, carries tons of daily necessities such as socks and handbags from Yiwu, East China’s Zhejiang Province to London. Those products are in strong demand in the UK. The new freight route, which is part of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, also brings authentic British products such as whisky and baby formula to the world’s second-largest economy. In Kenya, the 480-kilometer Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway, which was officially launched in May, is expected to reduce the time for a passenger traveling from Mombasa to Nairobi to merely four and a half hours compared with nearly 10 hours by bus. These are just two of many examples showcasing how the China-proposed B&R initiative is reshaping regional development, global trade and the world economy.China has made rapid inroads since the beginning of the year, and the initiative offers new global governance solutions to the world. The initiative also yielded some positive results in some countries during the year, remarked Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs of Renmin University of China. "In 2017, Sri Lanka handed over the operating rights of the port of Hambantota to China, and the China-Myanmar oil pipeline began operations," he said, noting that China Railway Express also gained momentum by operating more than 6,000 freight trains since 2011. Also, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor advanced. In general, the majority of related projects are going smoothly, and the B&R has become a familiar topic with many policymakers and investors around the world, the expert noted. Addressing concerns Not all countries applaud the initiative, and some Western media and think tanks have called it "neocolonialism" - a way of expanding Chinese power overseas. After Sri Lanka formally handed over the port to China Merchant Ports Holdings on a 99-year lease in early December, India had to showcase how the Chinese way of infrastructure construction was little more than a modern neocolonial enterprise, according to Indian media reports. Other B&R projects have also raised concerns in the West. With Germany and Belgium both seen growing wary of Chinese investment in Greece, its largest port - Piraeus - mainly owned by COSCO Shipping, serves as China’s new gateway to Europe, the New York Times reported in April."Chinese investment is fundamentally different from that coming from the West decades ago, as some Western projects were aimed at strengthening political allies," said Huang Rihan, an expert with the Beijing-based Center for China & Globalization(CCG). "Take the port of Hambantota as an example. The Sri Lanka Ports Authority still holds 30 percent ownership, which means that local business representatives can be involved in management, the decision-making process and operations," he said. The Chinese model, which prioritizes development, is not only about the participation of Chinese participants but also of local businesses in countries and regions along the B&R route. "As stakeholders, local business groups will enjoy profit-sharing plans after the project starts working. It will bring reciprocal benefits for both sides," Huang said. India had the chance to build the port of Hambantota years ago, but it rejected this option. "Unlike India, which holds an offensive view on regional cooperation, China wants to ’make the cake bigger’ and benefit more people, that’s the fundamental difference," the expert said. In Africa, China set up a base in Djibouti in July, which already has US and French military bases. But the Western countries frame it as just naval facilities, while China is experimenting with Djibouti as a logistics and supply center, which could accelerate local economic growth, Huang noted. Also, a railway that links Djibouti and its neighboring country Ethiopia is expected to upgrade transport in the region and propel intra-Africa trade. Looking forward Despite a growing consensus on the B&R, policymakers and investors need to tackle issues such as expanding financing channels, paving the way for more sustainable projects and tackling rising debts, experts noted. China has tightened control over capital outflows since the beginning of the year, and economic growth in the country has not performed in line with expectations, which posed concerns over outbound investment, Wang said. An increasing volume of debt in countries and regions along the route also raised concerns among investors. Of the 68 nations and regions that are partners engaged in the initiative, 27 have their sovereign debt rated as junk, Bloomberg reported in October.  Some projects are now operated under build-operate-transfer contracts, which have require a long period to generate returns for investors. "That has increased the risks," Huang said.Still, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has set some good examples of evaluating the feasibility and profitability of projects, which could be used as a reference by other Chinese companies that invest in overseas markets, he noted.  While building up industrial parks in countries along the route is helping accelerate local industrialization process, Chinese companies have to fully localize their business. "The industrial park in Pakistan, for example, will also help local manufacturing grow," Wang with Renmin University said.From January to November, China decreased investment in 59 countries and regions along the B&R route, according to the Ministry of Commerce.The total investment of Chinese companies in non-financial sectors in those economies reached $12.37 billion, down 7.3 percent year-on-year.The trend echoed the call from experts for more cautious outbound investment. "For 2018, it’s important to build up some sustainable projects to prove that the Chinese model is working," Wang said. From Global Times，2017-12-21

陶短房：欧洲“避税天堂黑名单”：局部地区“有雨”

文 | 全球化智库（CCG）特邀研究员陶短房   　　12月5日，欧洲经济财政理事会(Ecofin)姗姗来迟地发布了人们期待已久的“在税务问题上不合作司法管辖区名单”，即人们通常所言的“避税天堂黑名单”，最终上榜的“避税天堂”为17个，远远少于人们事先的预期。 　　所谓“避税天堂”，系指免收所得税的国家或地区，如列支敦士登、安道尔、摩纳哥及英属维尔京群岛、百慕大、美属萨摩亚、文莱、开曼、纽埃等等。2008年时IMF曾经列出总计43个“避税天堂”，这是指狭义的，广义的“避税天堂”则包括香港甚至美国等“低税区”，范围更广，争议自然也越大。 　　自2008年金融危机以来，欧美越来越多的国家对“避税天堂”成为各国巨大海外税收漏洞的现象忍无可忍。有统计称全盛期全球藏匿在“避税天堂”的资金至少有10万亿美元，相当法国年GDP总值的5倍，50%的国际贸易通过“避税天堂”逃税，更令各国对“避税天堂”对贪腐、洗黑钱的掩护感到越来越不耐烦。 　　2009年4月，G20伦敦峰会在“全球联手应对金融危机”的大背景下召开，金融监管合作问题首次被提上议事日程。在这届会议上，法、德等国联合提出“黑名单”制度，对不合作的“避税天堂”给予终止经济合作协定等惩罚，2011年底美国首先公布了《海外账户纳税法案》(FATCA)，加大了对国际“避税天堂”的打击力度。2014年5月6日，号称“最大避税天堂”的瑞士同意签署“信息透明协定”，从此改变了“银行为储户绝对保密”的、延续几百年的传统，这被公认为“避税天堂”黄金期的结束。 　　此后，“丰塞卡旋风”刮起，神秘的民间组织国际调查记者联盟(ICIJ)联合号称来自70多国、107家媒体的370多名调查记者先后“挖”出“马耳他丑闻”和“巴拿马丑闻”，锋芒直指“避税天堂”中最后、最顽固的四个钉子户(巴拿马、瑙鲁、巴林和瓦努阿图)。而与此同时，在欧洲税务专员莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)和法国经济部长勒迈耶(BrunoLe Maire)推动下，欧洲理事会的特别委员会花费了足足一年半(加上前期准备，时间长达3年)，先是在2016年下半年列出一份遍及全球、多达92个国家和地区的“疑似避税天堂名单”(比通常人们公认的43个避税天堂总数还多出一倍有余)，今年稍早则“缩编”至约55个，而在12月初的Ecofin布鲁塞尔财长会议上，28个欧盟成员国财长经过长达72小时的激烈辩论，最终拿出了一份包括“黑榜”和“灰榜”的名单。 　　“黑榜”即前面提到的17个国家、地区名单，这17个国家和地区分别是巴林、巴巴多斯、格林纳达、关岛、韩国、阿联酋、马绍尔群岛、蒙古、纳米比亚、帕劳、巴拿马、圣卢西亚、美属萨摩亚、突尼斯等17国系Ecofin特别委员会根据“是否通过加入自动信息交换体系实现税收透明度”“是否实行了有害的税收优惠政策”“是否实行了经合组织(OECD)所反对的税收优惠政策”这三项标准遴选出的，它们将很可能根据Ecofin的建议，受到欧盟的一系列财政和金融制裁。 　　“灰榜”包括英属维尔京群岛、巴哈马、土耳其、卡塔尔、瑞士、塞尔维亚、马其顿、卢森堡、百慕大群岛、摩洛哥、佛得角、英属泽西岛和马恩岛等47个国家和地区，他们被责令“加强与欧洲间的税务信息透明化交流”，否则将会在未来“灰转黑”。 　　正如一些分析家所评论的，此次欧盟终于采取措施，从总体上对“避税天堂”提出制裁框架，是全球“围剿避税天堂”、打击非法离岸金融、改善税务信息透明化努力的最新成果。 　　由于欧盟成员国众多，不同国家在财政、金融和税务方面传统、现实利益迥异，非但对“避税天堂”的态度参差不齐，甚至连“何为避税天堂”都各说各话。如法国、德国一直苦于富人逃税，主张“零所得税即避税天堂”“避税天堂即必须制裁”，而英国、爱尔兰、冰岛等则向有低税传统，并希望借助“税收低谷”吸引外国公司前来注册，英国在世界各地的离岛和部分前英国殖民地小岛则更是各种版本“避税天堂清单”上的“常客”。 　　一些税务专家指出，欧盟各国最终在一些关键性、敏感性的分歧点上选择了“模糊化处理”，然而“黑名单”的意义似乎暂时也就只能到此了：上了“黑名单”的“避税天堂”将要受到欧盟的制裁，这点没有问题，但，什么样的制裁？谁也没有说清楚。当然，勒迈勒提出“让IM F和世界银行削减对黑名单国家的资助”，可这是超越欧盟理事会权限范畴的事，即便实现，也是IM F/世行的惩罚，而非欧盟的惩罚———难道真的像卢森堡代表所言“把这些国家和地区列到黑名单上本身，就已经是最严厉的制裁”？当然，这种模糊处理减少了“黑名单”通过的难度，但如此“罚酒三杯”式的惩罚，真的就能起到惩戒和吓阻作用？ 　　不仅如此，被法国《回声报》戏称为“局部地区有雨”的“定向筛选”，极大削弱了“黑名单”的说服力。 　　什么是“定向筛选”？ 　　首先，“黑榜”小心翼翼地回避了在打击“避税天堂”大原则上和欧洲“志同道合”，但在何为“避税天堂”和“如何打击”方面差异甚大的美国。美国经常指责爱尔兰等欧盟成员国“用低税收帮美国公司避税”，而部分欧洲高税收国家则将实施零所得税的部分美国州也斥为“避税天堂”，双方在税务信息交换方面也存在诸多龃龉，可想而知，如果欧盟把美国列入“黑榜”甚至“灰榜”，将会是怎样的一幅画面。 　　其次，早在几个月前，Ecofin就明确了“不让一个欧洲国家上榜”的原则，事实也的确如此，甚至被“丰塞卡旋风”吹到狼狈不堪的马耳他也堂皇“逍遥法外”，慢说“黑榜”，就连“灰榜”上寥寥无几的欧洲国家，也都是些非欧盟成员国，有人戏称“英国脱欧帮了大忙”，否则“灰榜”上连泽西岛这样的英国离岛，甚至欧洲以外的部分欧盟成员国属地都未必会出现。很显然，这种“刑不上大夫”的区别对待，会严重影响这份“黑名单”的公信力。 　　据悉，摩洛哥、佛得角在最后一刻从“黑榜”上脱身，而突尼斯、阿联酋和巴拿马则“功亏一篑”。在这种“局部地区有雨”的筛选式框架下，一切似乎都变得充满“弹性”，可想而知，接下来的博弈焦点将围绕着两个最棘手的话题：对“黑榜”上榜者究竟将怎样惩罚；“黑”与“灰”间将如何切换。 文章选自《南方都市报》，2017年12月19日

刘燕华：数字化是”一带一路”建设的基础

专家简介

智库报告：中国国际学校蓝皮书2017

何伟文：世贸组织并不仰承美国鼻息

中国与全球化智库 专家简介 何伟文，全球化智库（CCG）高级研究员。 　　正在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的世贸组织(WTO)第十一届部长级会议，是维护多边贸易体制、反对贸易保护主义的一场十分重要的会议，又是努力推进世贸规则与时俱进、实现开放包容共赢的一个关键节点。就在大会第二天，《华尔街日报》中文网刊载题为“没有美国领导的WTO会是空架子吗？”的文章称，长期以来，美国领导了WTO规则的制定，现在美国立场转变了，怀疑WTO起来，从而出现了权力真空。白宫副新闻秘书拉吉则予以否认，称特朗普从未躲避美国作为全球贸易领导者的角色。美国贸易代表莱特希泽说得比较接地气，认为WTO的问题是转向了贸易诉讼，而不是贸易谈判。 　　我们需要观察的不仅是拉吉和莱特希泽的表态，而是近一年来特朗普政府做了什么。他们干扰和妨碍多边自由贸易的记录实在不少，很难查到特朗普何时表示过要维护WTO。相反，责备WTO并要代之以双边协定的言行比比皆是。特朗普竞选时清楚地说过，WTO是场“灾难”，并暗示了退出的可能性。就在不久前APEC岘港峰会上，他又再次重申要改多边、区域贸易协定为双边协定。今年以来，美国政府采取的贸易限制措施数量同比差不多翻了一番。截至2017年12月12日，在WTO争端解决机制立案的532起争端中，美国当被告的为132起，约占1/4。 　　尽管如此，多边贸易体制和区域贸易安排依然在继续向前推进。2017年，WTO贸易便利化协定开始生效，WTO知识产权协定增加了药品内容。本次部长级会议开始了WTO与电子世界贸易平台(eWTP)对接、更惠及广大中小企业的对话。中国“一带一路”倡议正顺利推进，欧盟同加拿大、日本、南共体和澳新达成或正推进自贸安排。没有了美国，CPTPP取代了TPP。在这种情况下，很难说美国还在领导全球贸易，也很难说WTO成了空架子。 　　WTO规则当然需要与时俱进，因为现行规则体系是1995年以前确定的。20多年来，互联网和大数据技术长足发展，现代服务业和制造业日益融合，再加上贫富差距的扩大，国际贸易不断出现新特点、新问题。原有规则体系显然不够，需要不断发展，适应形势需要。但WTO规则体系更新升级的总方向很清楚，即开放、包容、普惠、平衡和共赢。换言之，无论新技术、新经济如何发展，多边贸易规则体系必须包容，必须惠及不同特点和不同发展水平的所有经济体，必须有助于消灭贫困，并与联合国2030年可持续发展议程相融合。 　　世界当然欢迎美国参与领导WTO规则体系的更新。但问题恰恰在于，特朗普政府的“美国优先”总议程与上述方向是相反的。特朗普政府认为，凡是美国遭遇贸易逆差，都是因为贸易规则“不公平”。什么是“公平贸易规则”呢？就是美国不仅“不能吃亏”，而且要优先。至于其他国家是否吃亏，并不重要。世界上没有这样的多边规则。美国抱着这个自私的目标去领导多边贸易规则的更新，肯定没有结果。相反，无论美国能够领导，还是退居一边，以WTO为中心的多边贸易体制都会不断前进，不断完善，因为它不过是经济全球化客观规律的反映，而客观规律是不以人们主观意志为转移的。 　　在WTO第十一届部长级会议举行之际，特朗普政府最好重新审视一下自己的贸易议程是否出了问题，是否与多边贸易体制总原则相吻合，以及怎样才能迅速回归并共同引领多边贸易体制。果如此，则利于世界，也利于美国。 文章选自《环球时报》，2017年12月13日