【Global Times】Experts claim new US president won’t shift Sino-US ties
2016年8月4日"The most important thing about Sino-US relations is both sides don’t make trouble. We both need to cool down, which is very necessary in short term, especially on South China Sea issue," Robert Daly, the second director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said in perfect Chinese at a seminar held at Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing on July 25.
His opinion was echoed by many experts on international relations from China. They believe that the stability of Sino-US relations and cooperation between the two sides are the foundation to solve many problems currently in the world.
However, with the presidential election gaining heat, the election of the next president, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, will determine the new course of relations.
Seeking changes
"No matter who takes office, there won’t be too much difference (in Sino-US relations)," said Huo Jianguo, a special research fellow at CCG. He believes the democratic system and power of the Congress of the US remains influential. No matter what bold plans they declare during the election, they will sacrifice their personal interest to comply with the interests of Congress and the country.
Even though Donald Trump has set a lot of goals in toughening trade relations with China, and keeps trashing China in his speeches, recently saying "we are being ripped so badly by China," he still gained some support from Chinese attendants at the seminar.
"But his prominent characteristic is pragmatism. So it’s possible that we will be very pragmatic during discussion," said Wang Xin, the former president of SinoMedia. He believes although Trump might be aggressive at first, negotiations with the "businessman," now mostly known to Americans as a reality TV star and anti-Muslim demagogue, are possible.
He said if he were an American, he would vote for Trump since he might bring some surprises, rather than the same old ways of Clinton.
Zou Dehao, a former reporter of People’s Daily stationed in the UN, also believes the relations won’t be changed too much, but there might be more frictions in terms of trade relations if Trump is elected.
"The American people would show tremendous creative spirit and courage in seeking changes and innovation." He believes Trump will reduce the diplomatic conflicts between the two countries.
Most of the experts believe Trump will raise the unpredictability of US actions, and his stance on anti-globalization remains a concern for them.
Polarization problem
However, many believe it’s easier to predict the US strategy if Clinton takes office. Clinton is unpopular among Chinese because when secretary of state, she criticized Internet freedom in China, and because of her comments on the disputed waters in the South China Sea.
Zou said Clinton would immediately focus her strategy on rebalancing the Asia-Pacific region and take a hardline agenda toward China. "She would bring more confrontations on human rights, South China Sea issue, which won’t be good for any of us," Zou said.
Daly agreed with this opinion, saying Clinton probably would be tougher on dealing with such issues, especially the South Chine Sea issue which is a key to affect the Sino-US relations.
But he also pointed out the e-mail leak that shows the Democratic National Committee was biased against Bernie Sanders’ campaign won’t affect people’s votes. Big news is quickly forgotten just as people soon forgot Melania Trump plagiarized Michelle Obama’s speech.
Despite Trump and Clinton’s strategy, experts at the seminar pointed out that their cabinet staff will be a crucial factor affecting their policies toward China.
Daly pointed out the difference of this year’s election compared to previous years; the majority of Americans have a negative impression of both candidates, which is unprecedented.
Over 50 percent of Democrats vote for Clinton not because they sincerely support Clinton but hate Trump, and vice-versa for Republicans for Trump.
But the problem he personally worries about the most is no matter who is elected, at least 50 percent of Americans will hate their new president.
"Neither Hillary nor Trump would be able to solve the polarization problem," Daly said.
From Global Times, 2016-8-1
