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Li Weifeng: The future has come-AI in education and poverty alleviation2019年1月10日
Visitors watch a robot dance at the World Robot Conference 2017 in Beijing, capital of China, Aug. 25, 2017. [Photo / Xinhua]
理事观点 专家观点 -
He Weiwen: Historic Value of the Past 40 Years2019年1月10日
On January 1, 1979, the People’s Republic of China and the United States issued a joint statement announcing the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries. From January 28 to February 5, Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping and his wife Zhuo Lin made an eight-day official visit to United States, at the invitation of U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife. (file photo) By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). December 2018 marks two simultaneous 40 years anniversaries of historic significance: China and the US established diplomatic relation on December 16, 1978, and China launched reform and opening-up on December 18, 1978. They are by no means coincidence, but closely related both in logic and reality. Deng Xiaoping, the master designer of China’s reform and opening-up, held that China must normalize its relations with the United States to make the reform and opening-up a success. Two days before the opening of the historical 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee, China and the United States singed the joint communique on establishing diplomatic relations as from January 1, 1979. A month later, Deng Xiaoping visited the United States where he had long discussions with President Jimmy Carter. Forty years of the normalization of relations between China and the US has played a vital role in supporting China’s reform and opening-up. It has not only provided a stable international environment for China, but also resulted in numerous concrete tools securing the mutual benefitial cooperation. The two countries have signed hundreds of agreements covering trade, science and technology, education, intellectual property, agriculture, energy, education, tourism, medical service, culture and more. The massive investment of the US multinational companies, which boasts over 68,000 US-invested businesses in China today, has brought tremendous new products, new technologies, new visions and world market opportunities to China. They also supported 1.74 million jobs directly. The two-way trade volume increased 233-fold from 1979 to 2017, unprecedented in human history, contributed energetically to the economic growth in China. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, over five million Chinese students studied abroad, with over one third of the total studying in the US, acquiring the latest knowledge and expertise in various sectors in the world. China has also benefited from cooperation with the US in the contemporary law making, and in learning and following international trade rules. With hard, protracted talks, China and the US reached the agreement on China’s accession to WTO on November 15, 1999, which was the key for China’s WTO membership two years later. The latter in turn helped turn China into a leading trading power 15 years later. All the above developments provided a strong push in China’s reform and opening-up and in her integration into the world. On the other hand, the continuous reform and opening-up in China has also provided vast opportunities for the American businesses and the America people. According to a joint study by US-China Business Council (USCBC) and the Oxford Research Institute, the two-way trade and investment in 2015 alone contributed 1.2 % to the US GDP, and supported 2.6 million jobs. In recent years, Chinese exports to the US lowered the US CPI by 1.5 percentage points and saved roughly 850 dollars per family each year. The US has also benefited tremendously from China’s accession to WTO. According to the USDOC data, from 2002 to 2017, the US exports to China increased by 487.0%, four times as fast as its export to the world (including China) which increased by 123.1%. Its imports from China rose by 303.8% during the same period, while its imports from the world was up only 101.7%. The US trade with China increased much faster than the rest of the world, and its exports to China grew faster than imports from the latter. During the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, China’s average tariff levels were brought down from over 30% to 7.5% by November 2018, and most of the non-tariff barriers have been removed, offering ever expanding market for the US exporters. China now accounts for 57% of the US soybean export sales, 25% for Boeing’s global sales, 20% of the US automotive exports. China’s continuous opening-up in market access has provided promising opportunities for the US multinational enterprises. According to the latest data by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, USDOC), by the end of 2016, China accounted for only 1.6% of total US multinational enterprises overseas investment assets, but for 6.0% of total overseas sales, 2.6% of total overseas net revenue, and 5.0% of total overseas added value. It shows that China is a market with higher than average returns for the US multinationals. The AmCham 2018 White Paper also found that close to 60% of its members had put China among top three of their global investment destinations, and one third of them had planned a 10% or more investment increase in 2018. A recent Rhodium Group report showed that, by the end of 2017, total US investment stock in China reached $ 200 billion, making profit of $ 70 billion out of the local sales over $ 600 billion, larger than the Chinese exports to the US at $ 505.6 billion in 2017, according to USDOC data. The past 40 years have proved that, a sound relationship between China and the US is considerably constructive to China’s reform and opening-up; and a constantly opening China is also essential for the US in its global environment and ever-expanding business interests. The current sharp downturn in the bilateral relations since President Donald Trump took office, especially the ongoing trade war, is good for nobody. A fundamental concern behind the latest Trump Administration’s China policy is the mentality of “China threat”. They assume that China will threaten the US global dominance in both geopolitics and high-tech industries. The past 40 years of both the bilateral diplomatic relations and China’s reform and opening-up have provided a shared cognition that China has no interest in challenging the US in either field. Although China’s total GDP is already two thirds that of the US, its per capita GDP, estimated at around $9,700 in 2018, is still below the world average of $ 11,000. The repeated downward pressure in China’s economy justifies the urgency of upgrading the manufacturing to the higher end to keep economy growing. If China wants to avoid the “middle income trap” and move into a high- income society, its per capita GDP will have to attain at least $ 14,000, or a total GDP at $ 19.6 trillion, very close to the current size of the US economy. Will that be a threat to the US? Absolutely no. At that level, China’s per capita GDP will be less than a quarter of the current US level ($ 60,000), or less than half that of the average OECD countries. China will still have a long way to go to bring happy lives to its people. It will cause no threat to the US dominance. The two 40-years anniversaries are treasured memories for both countries, reminding us what is good for both and what might hurt the interests of each. A stable relationship and prosperous future depend on the strategic vision and practical efforts by both governments, businesses, academics and the peoples. Regardless of twists and turns ahead, China-US relations will ultimately return to the track of win-win collaboration. From chinausfocus,2019-1-3
理事观点 专家观点 -
Wang Huiyao: Growth in Parallel with Reform and Opening-up2019年1月7日
FORTY years ago, China launched the reform and opening-up policy; but the earth-shaking transformation actually materialized in 1977 when the Gaokao System – the annual college entrance examination – was restored, since it ushered in a new era in which both knowledge and talents would be respected. I was fortunate enough to be among the first batch of college graduates after the restoration, and thus my life underwent great changes in parallel with the historic 40 years of reform and opening-up.Restoring the Gaokao SystemI will never forget that day, October 12, 1977, when I was working in the countryside at Dragon King Commune of Jintang County in Sichuan Province, as most educated urban youth did in the 1960s and 1970s. After a full day of hard work in the fields, I stayed at home reading by a dim kerosene lamp. Then I heard from the commune’s loudspeaker announcing the stirring news that the Gaokao system, suspended for about a decade, would be restored in December. I felt elated with excitement and hope as I saw a glimpse of my future and the hopes of the country.1977, Wang Huiyao works on a production team in the countryside of Sichuan Province. Two months later, 5.7 million examinees with different family backgrounds, ages, and social status; from farmlands, factories, and barracks participated in the fierce competition. In the next spring, I was among the 270,000 winners whose dream of being admitted to a university came true.On a spring day of 1978, I hopped onto the train southward from Chengdu to Guangzhou, where my destination, Guangzhou Institute of Foreign Languages was located. It took me three days and two nights to travel across half of China to reach Guangzhou, the forefront of the reform and opening-up. On campus, I avidly absorbed knowledge from textbooks and never stopped thinking about the meaning of my life in keeping up with the debates on the society and about the future of the country. Four years later, I graduated with a brand-new attitude towards life and a new worldview, which made me ready for entering the world outside China, which was a bigger arena for competition.Scanning Widely to See the WorldMy first job after graduation was working for China’s Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade (now China’s Ministry of Commerce) in charge of promoting Chinese enterprises going global. During that time, I participated in drafting the report on China’s foreign contracted projects and labor cooperation, which was approved by the then General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Hu Yaobang and implemented throughout the country. Feeling the importance of the great responsibility upon us, I was encouraged to work harder. But soon I realized that my knowledge on international business was limited, so I quit my job and shifted my focus on the academic study with an MBA degree abroad.1980,Wang with his college classmates in Humen, Guangzhou during his BA years. I then dedicated myself to foreign universities and international communities for 10 years, with a focus on gaining deep understanding of the essence of cultures and institutions. From my perspective, the fundamental need of China’s reform and opening-up policy is emancipating the mind and providing talents with more opportunities. Two great measures that Deng Xiaoping decided to implement: the restoration of the Gaokao system and the encouragement for students to study abroad, have undoubtedly nurtured professionals and experts in various fields for the successful undertakings of the nation.In 1984, during Deng’s southern inspection tour, he wrote at Shenzhen Special Economic Zone that “the development and experience in Shenzhen indicates that the policy to establish special economic zones is right.” Two months after Deng’s tour, the CPC Central Committee made a crucial decision, announcing “to open 14 coastal cities and Hainan Island for foreign investors.” Since then, the reform and opening-up policy has eventually expanded to all of China’s coastal areas.1984, Wang is in Canada pursuing his MBA and DBA degrees. He is one of the first Chinese students to get their MBA degrees in Canada. Meanwhile, I was an intern at the Consider Canada City Alliance (CCCA) and was honored to escort a delegation with members from the above chosen 14 coastal cities headed by then Tianjin’s Deputy Mayor Li Lanqing to tour around a dozen of Canadian cities. The delegation visited the stock market in Toronto and Vancouver, and investigated the developed transportation and communication systems. The journey lasted for one month, stretching across Canada from one place to another. The surveys included every facet of the modern Western society, learning from their experiences, and summarizing and theorizing new ideas for China’s market economic reform.In 1990, I stood out among hundreds of candidates in the public competition, and was nominated as the chief economic representative of Canada’s Quebec province accredited in Hong Kong and Greater China. During my tenure in the early 1990s, I did a lot of research projects on China-Canada economic and trade cooperation, made proposals, and facilitated multiple high-level visits.Returning from OverseasIn the late 1980s and early 1990s, various vicissitudes had taken place at home and abroad – the demise of the Soviet Union, the upheaval of East Europe, the receding of socialist movements around the world, all casting a shadow on the prospect of socialism. The road to reform and opening-up was stymied and there were hurdles in the way forward.1993, Wang (center, standing) at the signing of a contract for international cooperation in the Three Gorges Project in China. In January 1992, 87-year-old Deng Xiaoping again traveled southward, speaking with regional leaders regarding the destiny of socialism in China. He emphasized that the basic line of the CPC must be unrelentingly pursued for a hundred years, and that officials should be bolder and dare to lead people across the river by feeling the stones. The speeches Deng made during this tour revitalized the nation and its people to devote themselves once again to the practice of reform and opening-up.“If you wish to make greater contributions to the nation, you’d better come back from overseas.” Deng’s sincere words touched my heart and soul. I knew that China’s development could be hardly pushed forward without cooperation with the outside world and therefore, a large batch of overseas talents were badly needed to bridge China and the world. I hoped that I could be a pioneer among them.In the mid-1990s, I returned to China, and became one of the few private Chinese entrepreneurs. Deep in my heart, I believe that everyone should at least start an undertaking during his or her lifetime. Regardless of the success or failure of the endeavor, the entrepreneurial experience will open up a brand new world, in which one has the freedom and power to maximize his or her potential, showcase abilities, and master life. In 1999, my image was put on the cover of Canadian Business, introduced as a Chinese businessman, and I was nominated as one of the first “10 Great Entrepreneurs among Oversees Returnees” by the China Investment of the National Development and Reform Commission.To know more people with common interests, I joined the Western Returned Scholars Association (WRSA), which was the largest platform established by Chinese overseas returnees. In 2002, I proposed to set up the WRSA Chamber of Commerce and was nominated as the founding president. In my opinion, a sound society should be jointly supported by the government, enterprises, and organizations, which are interconnected. Entrepreneurs are not just the heads of their companies but also a driving force of societal reform.Ushering in a New JourneyI had been a part-time professor at the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University for three years, teaching international business management. During that period, I felt that China’s market system had already formed and private enterprises sprang up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. However, there were few think tanks focusing on policy studies, especially private think tanks without a governmental background. Therefore, I had an idea to start and run a social think tank with an international impact.2015 Wang (4th from left) attends the ribbon cutting ceremony for CCG’s new office in Beijing’s CBD. In 2008 when I was 50 years old, with my wife Dr. Miao Lü, I set up the Center for China & Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, focusing on studies about China and globalization, global governance, international relations, and the internationalization of talents and enterprises. Globalization was then in vogue in China. Over the last decade, CCG never stopped researching and promoting the significance of globalization’s impact on China, and convened forums and seminars on globalization. In addition, CCG published various blue books on the topic of internationalization of talents and enterprises, monographs and English versions of research works.Under the complex situation of the China-U.S. trade dispute, CCG has organized experts and scholars to have track II diplomacy or “backchannel diplomacy” themed talks with bilateral economy and trade in focus in both Washington D.C. and New York, and has joined hands with the Hudson Institute, think tank of the White House, to hold the seminar “40-Year Retrospect and Prospect on China-U.S. Economy and Trade Relations and Policy Recommendation.” CCG also published a series of research reports titled “China-U.S. Trade Relations and Challenges: Past, Present, Future and Policy Choice.” Our efforts have promoted communication and exchanges between professionals from various spheres, playing an active role in eliminating economic and political barriers through dialogues.In today’s world, globalization has become a mainstay of China’s development. In early 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech on China’s support for globalization at the World Economic Forum gained wide appraisal from all over the world. China has already become the major driving force of the new type of globalization the world is witnessing. In the report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, it has been clearly proposed that “China will actively participate in and promote economic globalization and develop an open economy at a higher level.”Forty years ago, I was fortunate enough to get a ride on the fast train of reform and opening-up which has connected my life with the nation. I was among the first session of college graduates after the restoration of the Gaokao system, the first batch of officials responsible for promoting Chinese enterprises going global, the first corporate executives of multinationals, the first overseas returnees who entered the international community, and the first MBA who received education overseas. Moreover, I was the entrepreneur who set up the WRSA Chamber of Commerce and 2005 Committee, as well as the CCG.Nowadays, China is still on the track of reform and opening-up, and will persevere onward with opening on a higher level to the outside world in the future. As the generation who witnessed these monumental changes in the past 40 years, we should never forget our original intention when we started our work, and work hard with the younger generation to forge ahead, advancing China’s reform and opening-up over the next 40 years.From China Today,2018-12-10
理事观点 -
Harvey Dzodin: Will China’s steps for the economy pay2019年1月2日
By Harvey Dzodin,a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). Just as the year 2018 is fast winding down, significant policy decisions proposing economic reforms affecting the economy in China, and therefore the global economy, have considerably been ramped up. While most consequences won’t be felt for some time, there is a strong sense of positive movement on the Chinese side as we head into 2019, the 70th anniversary year of New China, and into 2020 when China’s goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is expected to be achieved. Taken as a whole, these decisions should not only stabilize and energize China’s economy but also further open China’s vast market to foreign and multinational companies. The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) that included top central government leaders, and other leaders and experts met in Beijing from December 19 to 21 to set economic policy for the coming year. The CEWC report made specific recommendations for both stabilizing the Chinese economy and further developing its domestic market as the top priorities. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will announce detailed recommendations and implementation strategies at the two sessions in March. A man walks through an Apple Store in Beijing, China, November 30, 2018. /VCG Photo A few days after the CEWC adjourned, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s economic planning agency, in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce, released a draft Foreign Investment Law (FIL) that has the potential to significantly open up much of China’s domestic markets to foreign investment and at the same time promises intellectual property protection and bans forced technology transfers from foreign companies to domestic Chinese entities. The CEWC recommendations were made in light of the current ongoing trade dispute between China and the U.S. The draft FIL, although part of a longer-term process begun before U.S. President Donald Trump took office, are also made in light of the trade dispute. Even though it’s the Christmas-New Year holiday season in Washington, D.C., and parts of the U.S. federal government are currently shut down and will remain so for some time due to a domestic political matter, active and robust bilateral negotiations are being held with progress being reported. Several steps could influence a more positive outcome of these negotiations in the bilateral trade dispute before the truce expires on March 2, 2019. Draft laws deliberated upon by the National People’s Congress (NPC) often take three or more readings, so normally the proposed FIL might not be passed until 2020 at the earliest. Some legislators, however, are calling for speedy consideration no later than the next NPC plenary session in March. This is possible although enactment is complicated by the unusually long comment period for this legislation runs until February 24. Of course, it will take months or years to see if the law’s promises are fulfilled, but this legislation is a potential giant step in the right direction. Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China /VCG Photo Intellectual property disputes are complex and often not easy to resolve. The U.S. side will be looking to see if enforcement provisions can be expeditious, fairly and expertly handled by the Chinese judicial system. In a lucky coincidence effective this Tuesday, a new branch of the Chinese Supreme People’s Court (SPC) dedicated to resolving IP disputes will open under the leadership of a respected SPC IP judge, Luo Dongchuan and is best suited to professionally resolve these complicated disputes. I believe these steps represent a good-faith effort by China to address U.S. concerns. It will be up to the U.S. side to also show good faith, something that often has been in short supply for the past 23 months. From CGTN, 2018-12-29
理事观点 专家观点 -
智联招聘CEO郭盛:2018年中国的劳动人力市场发生了这三个变化2018年12月29日
近日,智联招聘主办的“智场.未来”2018中国年度最佳雇主颁奖盛典暨中国人力资本国际管理论坛在成都举行。智联招聘CEO郭盛出席活动并做了主题演讲。郭盛表示,2018年是动荡的一年,中国的劳动人力市场发生了巨大的变化,主要在于三方面:一是,中国的经济动能从依赖人力到智力。郭盛举了这样几个数据:在2006年,15到24岁的青年劳动力是1.2亿,到2020年将会下降到6000万。另据国家统计局数据显示,15到64岁的人口,从2010年开始是大幅下降,预测至2025年,我国60岁以上人口将达到3亿,占总人口的1/5。“因此,中国的经济必然会转型,中国人力资源会越来越少。中国的GDP会继续发展,而驱动力一定是更多来源于更多的智力而不是人力。”二是,上班工作已经不再是必需品。郭盛举例道:在2013年,职场上的灵活用工只占到2.7%,但是在2017年,已经占到了9.1%。中国的灵活用工市场在以接近4倍的速度向前发展。现在在打工的人当中,有78%的人愿意加入灵活用工的行业,且大多数人愿意牺牲近1300元的工资拥抱弹性工作。“这些数据告诉我们,传统雇佣关系可能不再适用了,越来越多的人愿意参与灵活用工。”三是,经济周期在发生变化。根据CIER指数,今年的三季度相比二季度景气度略有回升。此外,根据智联招聘调查显示,整体的薪酬也还是平稳的。此外,在现场郭盛也发布了智联招聘联合北京大学社会调查研究中心共同评选的《中国年度最佳雇主30强》。郭盛认为,是向心力、组织力和平台化,让这些企业脱颖而出。附:中国年度最佳雇主30强榜单文章选自i 黑马,2018年12月27日
理事观点 郭盛 -
Jorge Heine: A Chinese garden in America’s backyard?2018年12月29日
By Jorge Heine,a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG) in Beijing and a former ambassador of Chile to China
理事观点 专家观点 -
Laurence Brahm: Can Kung Fu Panda as ’Dragon warrior’ save the planet?2018年12月28日
By Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at CCG The cartoon movie Kung Fu Panda portrays a character who, from his outside appearance, seems uncoordinated because of his enormous size. However, when Kung Fu Panda focuses his determination, he can become agile and swift, surprising everyone by his speed of his action. Sound familiar? At each stage of China’s economic reforms, it had to step forward away from its sheer weight carried from the past, and its massive population. When its leaders determined to achieve something, somehow the central system of the nation fell in line, and change inevitably followed. Author calls for green energy as the next business and financial mega trend at a climate conference in 2015. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn] The draft policy document on ecological civilization drafted by myself and Zhu Yanlai was submitted to China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and also to Li Wei, former personal secretary to Zhu Rongji. Li was now the minister heading the State Council Economic Development Research Center, the foremost economic think tank of the premier. He endorsed the need to expand the still nascent concept of ecological civilization into an elaborated policy that could unlock the perceived contradiction between environmental protection and economic growth. With his support of this idea, the document and project was taken over by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, where I was soon appointed senior adviser. Simultaneously to the European Union’s Environmental Director General on China’s green growth policies under a China-EU Dialogues framework agreement supported research teams involving both European and Chinese energy experts. Why EU’s involvement? Europe has some of the most advanced technology on renewable energy and green finance. However, the population of most European countries is smaller than many of China’s big cities. By combining European technology with China’s scale of production and infrastructural rollout, costs of renewable energy could come down drastically. Working with the ministry of Environmental Protection Strategic Policy Research Institute, we condensed the Ecological Civilization Sixteen Measures into a five-pillar framework. This framework was not based on any Western model, but rather, on a traditional Chinese matrix called the Five Elements consisting of Metal, Wood, Water, Fire, Earth (Jin Mu Shui Huo Tu). The five pillars include 1) “Earth” state infrastructure investment into renewables and smart transport (the “Great Green Grid”), 2) “Water” fiscal and credit policy to guide businesses in adopting renewable and efficient energy, 3) “Metal” replacing GDP with a broader, more inclusive, set of measures, 4) “Wood” a macro-coordinating policy body to provide a structural framework coordinating genuine green growth among ministries, 5) “Fire” education to transition values toward conservation. Core to the success of this policy transition would be creating a fresh awareness among Chinese people that all things are connected and that we need new measures of success and pride other than material ones. At the Ministry of Finance, one official commented quite frankly. “China should use economic crisis as opportunity and get rid of outdated enterprises and push green." He then added, "The current generation of government officials knows that this needs to be done. The Great Green Grid is a bigger challenge than the reforms of 1980s and 1990s.” With carefully guided state policy, things can happen in China quickly. This requires political willpower. As a managed market, ultimately a political decision is required to put in place the right policies that can guide market forces to make wind and solar power competitive with fossil fuels. By 2013, China’s new President, Xi Jinping, had officially pronounced the concept of "ecological civilization" and called for quality rather than quantity growth. They wanted to project a non-theory-based pragmatic set of alternatives. When Rob Parenteau, an independent financial adviser based in San Francisco, heard of the green growth policy proposals underway for China, he wrote the following: "Yes, and with the banking system essentially an extension of their fiscal policy, they [China] have the capacity to drive down the unit costs of production and push out the technological frontier on green tech. Done right, they could end up owning the 21st century industries while correcting their own growth path toward one more sustainable than the current suicidal one. Meanwhile, in the US, we will be debating whether we can afford to saddle future generations with the horrible curse of public debt…which is actually an asset held by households… that can help finance the construction and implementation of public assets... that improve the profitability and prospects for the business sector as well as lower future cost trajectories. Solarize all public buildings in the southern half of the US and insulate all government buildings in the northern half, as an opening Green New Deal. Create jobs, teach skills, and scale up demand to drive down unit costs. Or wait until the Chinese own the whole thing.” Whether in North America or Europe, Asia or Africa, a plethora of renewable energy and energy saving industries will need to replace our old existing systems. With the potential to roll out a spectrum of new employment opportunities for both white and blue collar, in sectors ranging from finance, engineering, environmental science, transportation, and infrastructure. Does Washington really want change? Does it want to evolve and lead renewable and efficient energy as a mega trend and the next driver of global growth? Or will Washington politicians sit back and let others take the lead as its economy declines further because it is fossilized in old ways and ideological debates? The problem is that America is locked in a political stalemate that defies rationality. The politics have become like the economics, ideological, not pragmatic, only black and white, without any room for grey. Regardless of which side you take, Democrat or Republican, the result is that views are stagnant and entrenched--one side votes opposite the other side just for the sake of it. It is no longer logical politics, but that kind of vindictiveness that comes about when nobody has an answer but everyone wants somebody to blame. So the strategy is to blame the other side. It has just become an knee-jerk reaction, which means that any form of logic-like, let’s try to avoid a crisis rather than just react to another one-is off the game board altogether. Even NiccolòMachiavelli, if he could see this mess, would throw up his hands and tell the Prince to call it a day. There is just nothing you can do with these guys. So maybe at the end of the day, through ecological civilization, Kung Fu Panda as Dragon Warrior will save the planet. With massive programs for renewable and efficient energy, together with smart transport on a scale never before seen, green energy investments will be the next economic mega trend for the world. In Kung Fu, there’s a concept called external power (Wai Gong) and internal energy (nei gong) involving qi, which is subtle ultimate energy. Transforming the energy systems, smart environmental technology and perspectives of our planet, maybe ecological civilization will be China’s greatest soft power. About Author Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at Center for China and Globalization(CCG), founding director of the Himalayan Consensus.
理事观点 专家观点 -
Harvey Dzodin: Central Economic Work Conference: Steering the right course2018年12月27日
China holds a grand gathering to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the country’s reform and opening-up at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Dec 18, 2018. [Photo/Xinhua] By Harvey Dzodin,a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is an important annual event in December that includes top central government leaders and other leaders and experts who set economic policy for the coming year. Its conclusions are released in summary form following the meeting but the full details usually aren’t released until the premier gives the work report at the two sessions in March. This year’s three-day CEWC session concluded last week. Every economy is complex and its many components are interrelated. Tinker with one and all others are affected. It’s not unlike making a change in a spreadsheet, where a single change results in numerous others. There are so many variables that must be considered and each invariably affects others. Maybe a balloon is a better analogy? Squeeze it hard in one place and a bulge pops out somewhere else. Squeeze it softly and there will be no result. Squeeze it too hard and the balloon will pop. Because China is the world’s second largest economy, CEWC decisions don’t merely affect China, but have global consequences. In more normal times, the work of the CEWC is not easy. Even then, trying to anticipate where the economy, and indeed the nation and the world, generally will be a year hence can flummox the most capable economist or leader. Many factors, most in fact, are not under the control of any one nation; not even under the control of a nation as mighty as China is now. So CEWC 2018 has to be one of the most consequential. It is steering a course not only for the 70th anniversary year of New China next year but anticipating China’s goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. In attempting to hit the economic sweet spot, CEWC is steering a middle-of-the road-course. Recognizing that economic concerns are not as serious or consequential as those faced in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, but that the Chinese economy needs a boost, China will continue to proactively implement fiscal policy, as well as prudent monetary policy, pre-emptively fine-tuning them as appropriate to ensure stable aggregate demand. In addition, the levers of fiscal policy will be implemented more effectively with a combination of larger-scale tax and fee cuts and a relatively substantial increase in issuing special purpose local government bonds. China has done an excellent job of reaching its goal of stimulating and strengthening its domestic market, especially in the purchases of goods, but the CEWC rightly concluded that this process needs to be sped-up, so it will focus on developing its service industry, which has lagged behind. This includes improving consumption and increasing spending power for childcare, education, eldercare, healthcare and the domestic cultural and tourism sectors. While boosting the service sector CEWC concluded that China will continue to boost the high-quality manufacturing sector by strengthening technological innovation with the establishment of an open, coordinated and effective platform for the research and development of generic technology. To the extent that this will result in new collaborations with other countries and multinational enterprises, recent friction from a number of countries should be significantly reduced. In addition, CEWC announced a clean-up of zombie enterprises that are a drag on the Chinese economy, while at the same time accelerating new technologies, industrial clusters and nurturing synergistic industrial zones, such as the vast Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. CEWC announced that the government will engage in significant capital market reform and that market access for foreign companies in China, together with protection of their intellectual property rights, also will be significantly increased. These are prudent and necessary steps to attracting foreign capital and foreign companies into China. If the trade dispute is successfully settled early in 2019, perhaps last week’s announced CEWC changes will bring China and the US back to the negotiating table to conclude the highly consequential Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Many rounds of negotiations dating back to 2008 were making steady progress until President Trump put them on the back burner upon assuming office. A successful conclusion would open up each country’s financial sector to the other with a big win-win outcome for both! The CEWC called for greater efforts to increase imports and exports, stimulating a more diversified export market, and cutting institutional costs of importing procedures. I was privileged to attend the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai in November. This impressive effort, coupled with some of the other CEWC recommendations, will definitely help spur imports. Exports are doing well but in these uncertain economic times, it doesn’t hurt to make improvements that result in increased sales. The good thing is that China has institutionalized the CEWC process of convening the best and the brightest to set the economy’s course. Managing the economy is like shooting at an erratically moving target. As a result of CEWC decisions, hopefully the economy will pass the Goldilocks test: Not running too hot or too cold, but just right! From China Daily,2018-12-26
理事观点 专家观点 哈维.佐丁(Harvey Dzodin) -
He Weiwen: China-US trade growth over the past augurs Coop. to continue2018年12月25日
By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). The China-US two-way trade has witnessed the most gigantic growth in human history over the past 40 years since diplomatic relations was established in 1979, but also the largest trade friction in the history of world trade in 2018. The China-US two-way trade volume increased by 238-fold in the past 39 years, from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 583.70 billion U.S. dollars in 2017. The first 11 months of 2018 saw trade volume reach 582.87 billion U.S. dollars, with the whole year volume set to create a new historic high, despite the massive trade frictions imposed by the Trump Administration. Trade and investment relations between the two countries can be roughly divided into four periods over the past 40 years. A Chinese Ministry of Commerce regular press conference, December 13, 2018. /VCG Photo. Period One, 1979-1988. The first decade of diplomatic ties saw a sound business relationship with no major issues. Trade volume increased from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 12.3 billion U.S. dollars in 1989, representing a 5-fold increase in 10 years. Large numbers of U.S. multinational enterprises started making investments or having a presence in China, including Boeing, Coca-Cola, Weyerhaeuser, IBM, etc. Period Two, 1989-1999. It was a difficult decade. Bilateral trade relations deteriorated drastically after 1989. The U.S. intensified restrictions on high-tech exports to China, resulting in a fall of trade in 1990. During the 1990s, China and the U.S. have three rounds of negotiations: the U.S. 301, super 301 and 307 investigations. Both sides finally reached agreements in each of them. In 1999, the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy to Yugoslavia caused a crisis in bilateral diplomatic relations. Nonetheless, all the turbulence or difficulties did not stop the fast trade growth. China-U.S. trade reached 61.48 billion U.S. dollars in 1999. What is more important, both governments reached the historic agreement on China’s accession to WTO, a decisive step towards China’s WTO membership. Period Three, 2000-2016. Bilateral trade gained further momentum. Although bilateral diplomatic relations again fell into a new critical difficulty due to an incident involving a U.S. spy airplane that killed a Chinese pilot over the South China Sea in early 2001. The 9/11 incident in the U.S. brought bilateral relations back on track and China became a full member of WTO on December 11, 2001. China’s WTO accession was a strong force behind bilateral business relations. The two-way trade volume hit 519.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 597.7 percent over 2000, or 12 percent per annum. China’s direct investment in the U.S. started to soar in 2014 and culminated in 45.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2016. Period Four, 2017-2018. The Trump Administration set China as the largest target of the trade war and launched a 301 investigation which resulted in 10-25 percent additional tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S., never seen in the bilateral trade relations over the past 39 years, nor in the history of world trade. Despite that, the two-way trade has been growing astonishingly well. It reached 583.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2017, an all-time high, rising 12.3 percent over the previous year, and 582.8 billion U.S. dollars in the first 11 months of 2018, 12.9 percent up year-on-year. A new historic high is set to happen this year. Due to the Trump Administration’s strict restrictions, China’s investment in the U.S. saw a 40-percent decline in 2016 and a further 90-percent fall in the first half of 2018. On the other hand, the U.S. investment in China has kept a marginal rise. The fundamental reasons behind current China-U.S. trade frictions are: First, the U.S. does not tolerant China’s rise as a socialist power under the leadership of CPC. Second, the U.S. tries its best to stop China from threatening the U.S.’s world dominance in high tech and high-end manufacturing. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 7, 2018 in New York City. /VCG Photo. And thirdly, the U.S. does not accept China’s Belt and Road Initiative in reshaping the world order. As a result, bilateral trade tensions will continue, although it is almost certain that the current 90-day bilateral trade negotiation will reach an agreement. On the other hand, it is less likely that the relationship between the two countries will “derail” and enter a new cold war. The fundamentals lie in the fact that both economies have been intertwined into the global supply chain and thus could not be derailed by any policies. In 2015 alone, bilateral trade and investment supported 2.6 million jobs and contributed 1.2 percentage points GDP growth in the U.S.. By the end of 2017, the total U.S. investment stock in China hit over 200 billion U.S. dollars with sales in China’s market exceeding 600 billion U.S. dollars and total profit exceeding 70 billion U.S. dollars. GM had a global sale of 8.9 million units in 2017, with 4.04 million units, or 45.4 percent sold in China. China’s market shares in the top 10 U.S. semiconductor companies in 2017 ranged from 80 percent for Skyworks Solutions, 63 percent for Qualcomm, 52 percent for Broadcom, 50 percent for Micron, to 23 percent for Intel. As a result, no political force can change these economics. Looking ahead, China and US trade relations, whatever the twists and turns, will ultimately return to the track of win-win cooperation and stable growth, benefiting the two nations and contributing to the world’s economic growth as well. From CNTN, December 18, 2017
理事观点 专家观点 -
Jorge Heine | China’s opening at 402018年12月24日
Photo: China’s high-speed railway trains. (VCG)
理事观点 专家观点