全球化（globalization）一词，是一种概念，也是一种人类社会发展的现象过程。全球化目前有诸多定义，通常意义上的全球化是指全球联系不断增强，人类生活在全球规模的基础上发展及全球意识的崛起。国与国之间在政治、经济贸易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解释为世界的压缩和视全球为一个整体。二十世纪九十年代后，随着全球化势力对人类社会影响层面的扩张，已逐渐引起各国政治、教育、社会及文化等学科领域的重视，引发大规模的研究热潮。对于“全球化”的观感是好是坏，目前仍是见仁见智，例如全球化对于本土文化来说就是一把双刃剑，它也会使得本土文化的内涵与自我更新能力逐渐模糊与丧失。

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• 

  Laurence Brahm: Can Kung Fu Panda as ’Dragon warrior’ save the planet?

  By Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at CCG The cartoon movie Kung Fu Panda portrays a character who, from his outside appearance, seems uncoordinated because of his enormous size. However, when Kung Fu Panda focuses his determination, he can become agile and swift, surprising everyone by his speed of his action. Sound familiar? At each stage of China’s economic reforms, it had to step forward away from its sheer weight carried from the past, and its massive population. When its leaders determined to achieve something, somehow the central system of the nation fell in line, and change inevitably followed. Author calls for green energy as the next business and financial mega trend at a climate conference in 2015. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]   The draft policy document on ecological civilization drafted by myself and Zhu Yanlai was submitted to China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and also to Li Wei, former personal secretary to Zhu Rongji. Li was now the minister heading the State Council Economic Development Research Center, the foremost economic think tank of the premier. He endorsed the need to expand the still nascent concept of ecological civilization into an elaborated policy that could unlock the perceived contradiction between environmental protection and economic growth. With his support of this idea, the document and project was taken over by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, where I was soon appointed senior adviser.  Simultaneously to the European Union’s Environmental Director General on China’s green growth policies under a China-EU Dialogues framework agreement supported research teams involving both European and Chinese energy experts. Why EU’s involvement? Europe has some of the most advanced technology on renewable energy and green finance. However, the population of most European countries is smaller than many of China’s big cities. By combining European technology with China’s scale of production and infrastructural rollout, costs of renewable energy could come down drastically. Working with the ministry of Environmental Protection Strategic Policy Research Institute, we condensed the Ecological Civilization Sixteen Measures into a five-pillar framework. This framework was not based on any Western model, but rather, on a traditional Chinese matrix called the Five Elements consisting of Metal, Wood, Water, Fire, Earth (Jin Mu Shui Huo Tu). The five pillars include 1) “Earth” state infrastructure investment into renewables and smart transport (the “Great Green Grid”), 2) “Water” fiscal and credit policy to guide businesses in adopting renewable and efficient energy, 3) “Metal” replacing GDP with a broader, more inclusive, set of measures, 4) “Wood” a macro-coordinating policy body to provide a structural framework coordinating genuine green growth among ministries, 5) “Fire” education to transition values toward conservation. Core to the success of this policy transition would be creating a fresh awareness among Chinese people that all things are connected and that we need new measures of success and pride other than material ones. At the Ministry of Finance, one official commented quite frankly. “China should use economic crisis as opportunity and get rid of outdated enterprises and push green." He then added, "The current generation of government officials knows that this needs to be done. The Great Green Grid is a bigger challenge than the reforms of 1980s and 1990s.” With carefully guided state policy, things can happen in China quickly. This requires political willpower. As a managed market, ultimately a political decision is required to put in place the right policies that can guide market forces to make wind and solar power competitive with fossil fuels. By 2013, China’s new President, Xi Jinping, had officially pronounced the concept of "ecological civilization" and called for quality rather than quantity growth. They wanted to project a non-theory-based pragmatic set of alternatives. When Rob Parenteau, an independent financial adviser based in San Francisco, heard of the green growth policy proposals underway for China, he wrote the following: "Yes, and with the banking system essentially an extension of their fiscal policy, they [China] have the capacity to drive down the unit costs of production and push out the technological frontier on green tech. Done right, they could end up owning the 21st century industries while correcting their own growth path toward one more sustainable than the current suicidal one. Meanwhile, in the US, we will be debating whether we can afford to saddle future generations with the horrible curse of public debt…which is actually an asset held by households… that can help finance the construction and implementation of public assets... that improve the profitability and prospects for the business sector as well as lower future cost trajectories. Solarize all public buildings in the southern half of the US and insulate all government buildings in the northern half, as an opening Green New Deal. Create jobs, teach skills, and scale up demand to drive down unit costs. Or wait until the Chinese own the whole thing.” Whether in North America or Europe, Asia or Africa, a plethora of renewable energy and energy saving industries will need to replace our old existing systems. With the potential to roll out a spectrum of new employment opportunities for both white and blue collar, in sectors ranging from finance, engineering, environmental science, transportation, and infrastructure. Does Washington really want change? Does it want to evolve and lead renewable and efficient energy as a mega trend and the next driver of global growth? Or will Washington politicians sit back and let others take the lead as its economy declines further because it is fossilized in old ways and ideological debates? The problem is that America is locked in a political stalemate that defies rationality. The politics have become like the economics, ideological, not pragmatic, only black and white, without any room for grey. Regardless of which side you take, Democrat or Republican, the result is that views are stagnant and entrenched--one side votes opposite the other side just for the sake of it. It is no longer logical politics, but that kind of vindictiveness that comes about when nobody has an answer but everyone wants somebody to blame. So the strategy is to blame the other side. It has just become an knee-jerk reaction, which means that any form of logic-like, let’s try to avoid a crisis rather than just react to another one-is off the game board altogether. Even NiccolòMachiavelli, if he could see this mess, would throw up his hands and tell the Prince to call it a day. There is just nothing you can do with these guys. So maybe at the end of the day, through ecological civilization, Kung Fu Panda as Dragon Warrior will save the planet. With massive programs for renewable and efficient energy, together with smart transport on a scale never before seen, green energy investments will be the next economic mega trend for the world. In Kung Fu, there’s a concept called external power (Wai Gong) and internal energy (nei gong) involving qi, which is subtle ultimate energy. Transforming the energy systems, smart environmental technology and perspectives of our planet, maybe ecological civilization will be China’s greatest soft power. About Author  Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at Center for China and Globalization(CCG), founding director of the Himalayan Consensus.

  2018年12月28日
• 

  魏建国：进一步引导鼓励民营经济发展

  专家简介

  2018年12月27日
• 

  Laurence Brahm: The Belt and Road Initiative as a New Silk Road

  Author with Nobel Peace Laureate Mohammed Yunus "banker to the poor" at Rio+20. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn] By Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at CCG   May 14, 2017, it was a beautiful spring morning at Yanqi Lake beside the Great Wall of China. State leaders arriving in stretch limousines walked on the red carpet to convene the One Belt One Road Cooperation Summit Forum. Watching from the broadcasting studio at CGTN, I had been invited as a guest commentator to offer live analysis of the event. I realized that many foreign observers were not completely clear as to the meaning underlying the concept of One Belt One Road. So I tried to put it into a historical perspective. The Silk Road was once the global economic order for nearly 2,000 years. It was temporarily disrupted by colonialism and the post-colonial, post-World War II economic order. In the context of China’s historic view, these disruptions were short-term and temporary interruptions in the interactive trade and cultural matrix that existed throughout China’s long history. China is about to bring it all back. And on the back of the new Silk Road, a new era is about to begin. Following de-colonization after World War II China and a number of de-colonized newly established nations formed the non-aligned movement, core to which was the concept of the “Third World Revolution.” Threshold convening of non-aligned nations occurred in Bandung and Algiers. However, this Third World uprising against the West and the post-colonial economic order was still crusted in ideas of revolution and violent resistance. Today with the emerging South-South cooperation, it is more a question of capital investment, infrastructure and integration of experiences and coordination of policies on a host of international issues. Once again, China takes the lead. China’s economic miracle involved many decades combination of state fixed asset investment together with large inflows of foreign capital, for which China created a relatively open and attractive investment environment and market. With massive inbound investment, China became the factory of the world. China’s economic miracle was built on a formula that combined market with planning, managed marketization. It is not about communism versus capitalism as often portrayed in the West but rather merging those aspects of market with planning in a pragmatic and not ideological way. Without infrastructure and connectivity (roads, grids, and ports) nothing can develop. However, labor costs (due in large part to increased labor protections, benefits and laws) and higher costs of living due to overall social improvement and real estate costs connected to fossil fuel prices, have made China less price competitive. China is now becoming the investor of the world and about to become the central bank of the world, as it invests across South-South regions now integrated into the Belt and Road Initiative. The Belt and Road Initiative that China has announced is also about connectivity. China is taking this experience of its own, sharing and extending it globally through the BRI that will evolve an integrated network of communications and transportation that will facilitate investment and development across the South-South zone or belt. China is now investing in this infrastructure for other nations, exporting labor, materials and technology that in turn will benefit China’s economy, that of the host country, and build economic resilience for everyone involved. The BRI can be viewed as having multiple win-win value for China and the other countries participating. China’s own experience of economic development has been in large part dependent upon the construction of core infrastructure in its interior to offer compatible networks allowing for the flow of goods and services. Without connectivity, there could be no economic development. Many countries of the BRI are landlocked and do not have the connectivity that would allow them to develop. By investing in the road, rail, port and communication networks, China is extending its own development approach to other countries. In turn, with substantial infrastructure, China’s own outbound investments could enable globalization to reach a new level of both breadth and depth. Moreover, only if other countries can have stable and assured economic development, can global security be sustainable. Embedded in the BRI, is President Xi Jinping’s vision of a “community of common destiny for all mankind”. The countries of the BRI network account for some 30 percent of global GDP. Add China standing at 14.84 percent and we are talking about 44.84 percent or half of global GDP. So why should the developing world listen to standards fixed by the most developed nations of the world, when it can set new standards? That is exactly what is happening and why the “community of common destiny for all mankind” really represents an emerging set of standards, values, and solutions shared by the global south for their shared sustainable prosperity. About Author  Laurence Brahm, a senior research fellow at Center for China and Globalization(CCG), founding director of the Himalayan Consensus.

  2018年12月27日
• 

  Harvey Dzodin: Central Economic Work Conference: Steering the right course

  China holds a grand gathering to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the country’s reform and opening-up at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Dec 18, 2018. [Photo/Xinhua] By Harvey Dzodin，a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is an important annual event in December that includes top central government leaders and other leaders and experts who set economic policy for the coming year. Its conclusions are released in summary form following the meeting but the full details usually aren’t released until the premier gives the work report at the two sessions in March. This year’s three-day CEWC session concluded last week. Every economy is complex and its many components are interrelated. Tinker with one and all others are affected. It’s not unlike making a change in a spreadsheet, where a single change results in numerous others. There are so many variables that must be considered and each invariably affects others. Maybe a balloon is a better analogy? Squeeze it hard in one place and a bulge pops out somewhere else. Squeeze it softly and there will be no result. Squeeze it too hard and the balloon will pop. Because China is the world’s second largest economy, CEWC decisions don’t merely affect China, but have global consequences. In more normal times, the work of the CEWC is not easy. Even then, trying to anticipate where the economy, and indeed the nation and the world, generally will be a year hence can flummox the most capable economist or leader. Many factors, most in fact, are not under the control of any one nation; not even under the control of a nation as mighty as China is now. So CEWC 2018 has to be one of the most consequential. It is steering a course not only for the 70th anniversary year of New China next year but anticipating China’s goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. In attempting to hit the economic sweet spot, CEWC is steering a middle-of-the road-course. Recognizing that economic concerns are not as serious or consequential as those faced in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, but that the Chinese economy needs a boost, China will continue to proactively implement fiscal policy, as well as prudent monetary policy, pre-emptively fine-tuning them as appropriate to ensure stable aggregate demand. In addition, the levers of fiscal policy will be implemented more effectively with a combination of larger-scale tax and fee cuts and a relatively substantial increase in issuing special purpose local government bonds. China has done an excellent job of reaching its goal of stimulating and strengthening its domestic market, especially in the purchases of goods, but the CEWC rightly concluded that this process needs to be sped-up, so it will focus on developing its service industry, which has lagged behind. This includes improving consumption and increasing spending power for childcare, education, eldercare, healthcare and the domestic cultural and tourism sectors. While boosting the service sector CEWC concluded that China will continue to boost the high-quality manufacturing sector by strengthening technological innovation with the establishment of an open, coordinated and effective platform for the research and development of generic technology. To the extent that this will result in new collaborations with other countries and multinational enterprises, recent friction from a number of countries should be significantly reduced. In addition, CEWC announced a clean-up of zombie enterprises that are a drag on the Chinese economy, while at the same time accelerating new technologies, industrial clusters and nurturing synergistic industrial zones, such as the vast Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. CEWC announced that the government will engage in significant capital market reform and that market access for foreign companies in China, together with protection of their intellectual property rights, also will be significantly increased. These are prudent and necessary steps to attracting foreign capital and foreign companies into China. If the trade dispute is successfully settled early in 2019, perhaps last week’s announced CEWC changes will bring China and the US back to the negotiating table to conclude the highly consequential Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Many rounds of negotiations dating back to 2008 were making steady progress until President Trump put them on the back burner upon assuming office. A successful conclusion would open up each country’s financial sector to the other with a big win-win outcome for both! The CEWC called for greater efforts to increase imports and exports, stimulating a more diversified export market, and cutting institutional costs of importing procedures. I was privileged to attend the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai in November. This impressive effort, coupled with some of the other CEWC recommendations, will definitely help spur imports. Exports are doing well but in these uncertain economic times, it doesn’t hurt to make improvements that result in increased sales. The good thing is that China has institutionalized the CEWC process of convening the best and the brightest to set the economy’s course. Managing the economy is like shooting at an erratically moving target. As a result of CEWC decisions, hopefully the economy will pass the Goldilocks test: Not running too hot or too cold, but just right! From China Daily，2018-12-26

  2018年12月27日
• 

  He Weiwen: China-US trade growth over the past augurs Coop. to continue

  By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG).  The China-US two-way trade has witnessed the most gigantic growth in human history over the past 40 years since diplomatic relations was established in 1979, but also the largest trade friction in the history of world trade in 2018. The China-US two-way trade volume increased by 238-fold in the past 39 years, from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 583.70 billion U.S. dollars in 2017. The first 11 months of 2018 saw trade volume reach 582.87 billion U.S. dollars, with the whole year volume set to create a new historic high, despite the massive trade frictions imposed by the Trump Administration. Trade and investment relations between the two countries can be roughly divided into four periods over the past 40 years. A Chinese Ministry of Commerce regular press conference, December 13, 2018. /VCG Photo. Period One, 1979-1988. The first decade of diplomatic ties saw a sound business relationship with no major issues. Trade volume increased from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 12.3 billion U.S. dollars in 1989, representing a 5-fold increase in 10 years. Large numbers of U.S. multinational enterprises started making investments or having a presence in China, including Boeing, Coca-Cola, Weyerhaeuser, IBM, etc. Period Two, 1989-1999. It was a difficult decade. Bilateral trade relations deteriorated drastically after 1989. The U.S. intensified restrictions on high-tech exports to China, resulting in a fall of trade in 1990. During the 1990s, China and the U.S. have three rounds of negotiations: the U.S. 301, super 301 and 307 investigations. Both sides finally reached agreements in each of them. In 1999, the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy to Yugoslavia caused a crisis in bilateral diplomatic relations. Nonetheless, all the turbulence or difficulties did not stop the fast trade growth. China-U.S. trade reached 61.48 billion U.S. dollars in 1999. What is more important, both governments reached the historic agreement on China’s accession to WTO, a decisive step towards China’s WTO membership. Period Three, 2000-2016. Bilateral trade gained further momentum. Although bilateral diplomatic relations again fell into a new critical difficulty due to an incident involving a U.S. spy airplane that killed a Chinese pilot over the South China Sea in early 2001. The 9/11 incident in the U.S. brought bilateral relations back on track and China became a full member of WTO on December 11, 2001. China’s WTO accession was a strong force behind bilateral business relations. The two-way trade volume hit 519.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 597.7 percent over 2000, or 12 percent per annum. China’s direct investment in the U.S. started to soar in 2014 and culminated in 45.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2016. Period Four, 2017-2018. The Trump Administration set China as the largest target of the trade war and launched a 301 investigation which resulted in 10-25 percent additional tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S., never seen in the bilateral trade relations over the past 39 years, nor in the history of world trade. Despite that, the two-way trade has been growing astonishingly well. It reached 583.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2017, an all-time high, rising 12.3 percent over the previous year, and 582.8 billion U.S. dollars in the first 11 months of 2018, 12.9 percent up year-on-year. A new historic high is set to happen this year. Due to the Trump Administration’s strict restrictions, China’s investment in the U.S. saw a 40-percent decline in 2016 and a further 90-percent fall in the first half of 2018. On the other hand, the U.S. investment in China has kept a marginal rise. The fundamental reasons behind current China-U.S. trade frictions are: First, the U.S. does not tolerant China’s rise as a socialist power under the leadership of CPC. Second, the U.S. tries its best to stop China from threatening the U.S.’s world dominance in high tech and high-end manufacturing.  Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 7, 2018 in New York City. /VCG Photo. And thirdly, the U.S. does not accept China’s Belt and Road Initiative in reshaping the world order. As a result, bilateral trade tensions will continue, although it is almost certain that the current 90-day bilateral trade negotiation will reach an agreement. On the other hand, it is less likely that the relationship between the two countries will “derail” and enter a new cold war. The fundamentals lie in the fact that both economies have been intertwined into the global supply chain and thus could not be derailed by any policies.  In 2015 alone, bilateral trade and investment supported 2.6 million jobs and contributed 1.2 percentage points GDP growth in the U.S.. By the end of 2017, the total U.S. investment stock in China hit over 200 billion U.S. dollars with sales in China’s market exceeding 600 billion U.S. dollars and total profit exceeding 70 billion U.S. dollars.  GM had a global sale of 8.9 million units in 2017, with 4.04 million units, or 45.4 percent sold in China. China’s market shares in the top 10 U.S. semiconductor companies in 2017 ranged from 80 percent for Skyworks Solutions, 63 percent for Qualcomm, 52 percent for Broadcom, 50 percent for Micron, to 23 percent for Intel. As a result, no political force can change these economics.  Looking ahead, China and US trade relations, whatever the twists and turns, will ultimately return to the track of win-win cooperation and stable growth, benefiting the two nations and contributing to the world’s economic growth as well. From CNTN， December 18,  2017

  2018年12月25日