全球化(globalization)一词,是一种概念,也是一种人类社会发展的现象过程。全球化目前有诸多定义,通常意义上的全球化是指全球联系不断增强,人类生活在全球规模的基础上发展及全球意识的崛起。国与国之间在政治、经济贸易上互相依存。全球化亦可以解释为世界的压缩和视全球为一个整体。二十世纪九十年代后,随着全球化势力对人类社会影响层面的扩张,已逐渐引起各国政治、教育、社会及文化等学科领域的重视,引发大规模的研究热潮。对于“全球化”的观感是好是坏,目前仍是见仁见智,例如全球化对于本土文化来说就是一把双刃剑,它也会使得本土文化的内涵与自我更新能力逐渐模糊与丧失。
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CCG研究 | 德意志:“回到德国!”到“欢迎来德国!”
《人才战争 2.0》 | 王辉耀、苗绿 著 全球对技术人才的争夺将越来越激烈,因此德国必须修改移民法规,使得德国对海外人才更具吸引力。 ——德国联邦内政部(Bundesministerium des Innern, BMI) “回到德国”!2001年8月27日,写着这样一句标语的横幅被飞机拉开,在纽约和加州海岸两地上空不停地盘旋展示。美国是流失在海外的德国人才的主要集中地。二战时期,纳粹主义兴起使许多人才流失,在德国失去的13名“未来诺贝尔物理学家”中,11名就去了美国;二战后也有3名物理学家去了美国。 这仅仅是人才流失的冰山一角。对此,德国政府发出了强力的召唤——“回到德国!”从德国的国际电台“德国之声”开始大力宣传,再到美国媒体上打广告,最后还在新兴的互联网进行宣传。两年后,“德国学者协会”在美国正式成立,为优秀的德国人才回国牵线搭桥。 吸引人才回流只是德国参与人才战争的一个侧面。 早在二战结束后的20世纪50年代,德国便开始放松移民政策 。当时因经济腾飞,德国面临人才与劳动力短缺问题,启动了著名的“客籍工人计划”,1960~1966年共招募360万外籍工人到西德工作。从2000年始,德国从长期制度建设上应对人才战争。德国IT业出现人才紧缺,时任总理施罗德(Gerhard Schroeder)推动实施“绿卡工程”,对外国人才实行优惠移民政策,要求是信息、通讯等行业高级技术人才,拥有大学本科及以上文凭,已达成年薪不低于10万马克的工作协议,最长期限为5年。2005年1月1日,德国《移民法》正式生效,这在德国历史上是首次,表明德国承认自身是一个移民国家,此后调整移民政策专门为人才战争服务,为刺激经济、引进外资开放了投资移民政策,在移民立法中增加了面向高技术人才的积分制度,外国人才可以凭借投资和技能成为永久居民和入籍。 德国的选择,是对劳动力短缺现实的回应。2004~2015年十多年来,德国经济蓬勃发展的同时,人口发展和劳动力市场处于萎缩状态。2012年开始,德国的移民人数激增,至2014年在德生活的外国移民数量达到1090万,创下历史纪录,相当于每五个人中就有一人有移民背景,然而2015年德国国内仍有568743个岗位空缺找不到人来填补。 德国的经济发展既需要低技能劳动力,也需要高技能劳动力来满足IT等行业的需求。2013年4月,德国政府在汉诺威工业博览会上正式推出“工业4.0”战略目标,随之成为国家标签。想象一下,你要买一辆汽车,只要拿出手机,点击应用软件,输入你的定制要求,然后坐等工厂生产、组装和配送就行了。这就是“工业4.0”时代,它的到来亟需高水平人才,尤其是在计算机、电子工程、电气化、机械工程、人工智能等领域。Make it in Germany 是德国联邦劳工及社会事务部(BMAS) 和德国联邦经济事务与能源部(BMWi) 建立和管理移民工人务工的网站,特别强调德国非常需要数学、科学、信息技术和科技领域(德语缩写MINT)的精英移民人才。 事实上,德国“工业4.0”的兴起和实现都离不开外来移民中的高精尖人才。德国首位机器人专业的汉堡科学院院士就是华人张建伟,他1989年获得清华大学计算机系人工智能专业硕士,2004年获得德国卡尔斯鲁厄大学计算机系机器人专业博士。随后,他在德国从事及领导“工业4.0”中的感知学习和规划、多传感信息处理与融合、智能机器人技术、多模式人机交互的研究与开发,发表三百余篇论文及专著,并多次获得国际会议最佳论文奖,指导德国硕士百余名、德国博士三十余名、洪堡学者多人,本人还拥有四十余项机器人和人工智能方面的发明专利,任数个国际重要机器人及人工智能会议的主席、多份国际专业杂志编辑,并担任德国数家企业的技术顾问,可谓国际顶级机器人专家。 作为欧盟创始成员国之一,德国的移民政策深受欧盟相关政策和劳动力市场状况的影响,尤其是欧盟2009年出台的蓝卡计划(Blue Card) 。蓝卡出台的背景是欧盟的高素质劳动力中非欧盟人口占比例太低,仅0.9%;相比之下,澳大利亚为9.9%,加拿大为7.3%,美国为3.5%。2007年,时任欧盟委员会主席的巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)认为,欧盟成员国需要对非欧盟高技能人才的录用及长期居留做出统一规定。2009年蓝卡正式出台,允许非欧盟高技术移民申请在全欧洲境内的工作许可。 德国2012年才全面实施欧盟“蓝卡计划”,此后迅速成为欧盟蓝卡的最大发行国,2013年发放的“蓝卡”有90%来自德国,彰显出德国在全球范围内争夺高水平专业人才的攻势。欧盟委员会对此颇有微词,认为一个国家“蓝卡”签署数量太多,正显示出该计划的失败,因为没能够在欧洲平均分布这些高素质的非欧盟移民人才。德国联邦统计局2016年7月发布的数据显示,2015年德国移民数量及净增移民数量均为史上最高。 与美国、加拿大相比,德国对留学人才的运用相对欠佳。德国的公立大学教育实力很强,而且不收学费,接收的外国留学生主要来自中国、印度以及东欧地区,整体上因科研支持不足、就业市场压力大、高收入者个人所得税较高等原因,较难挽留优秀的外国留学生。不过这并不绝对,一些博士毕业的精英还是被德国成功挽留,如上述张建伟博士。还有一些优秀留学生被德国机构或企业聘用,如上海市知联会外企分会副会长刘斌博士,他获得德国乌尔姆大学胰腺外科专业博士学位,决定“弃医从商”,进入德国具有160余年历史的“隐形冠军”老牌医疗设备公司爱尔博(ERBE),在总部工作和培训一年以后,2000年回到上海开设代表处,至2015年业务量增长33倍,销售业绩从全球32位跃升为前3名,受到德国总部的专门表彰。 2015年以后,德国专业人才会出现青黄不接,并将严重影响德国经济的持续增长——德国出生率低,德国人口正快速萎缩,而德国机器需要更多工人!当年德国宣布接收80万难民,是2014年接收人数的4倍!这背后的考量之一是德国技术人才供求不平衡,难民潮恰可为德国提供许多高素质人才,如工程师、学者、专业技术人员等;而且德国不仅需要工程师,还需要普通劳动力,如医疗护理人员,人手更短缺,非常适合难民。 然而,随着成千上万的难民从战乱的中东地区涌入德国,恐怖分子也混杂其中,德国有些“消化不良”,涉难民的非法和暴力事件频发,新闻爆出在德中国女留学生也遭受难民的侵害。“大救星”默尔克陷入悲悯与两难的境地,总理之位遭受来自全德的挑战。面对既成事实,无论默克尔政府或新一届德国政府,接下来的挑战是如何安置难民,让其中的人才有用武之地,把年轻的劳动力培训成德国需要的人才,以及克服难民潮带给德国乃至欧洲社会的冲击。 引用相关内容请注明出处:《人才战争 2.0》, 王辉耀、苗绿著,东方出版社。
2019年2月26日 -
Zamir Ahmed Awan: New era in Sino-Saudi relations
President Xi Jinping meets with Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Feb 22, 2019. [Photo/Xinhua]
2019年2月26日 -
何伟文:美国贫富鸿沟加深说明了什么
专家简介 何伟文,全球化智库(CCG)高级研究员。 当美国参议员沃伦不久前正式宣布参加2020年总统大选时,她还言称要向富人“发起阶级斗争”。2月19日,被称为“民主社会主义者”的民主党参议员桑德斯在经历2016年大选失败后,再次宣布将参加新一轮大选。而民主党的一些参议员还提出应该对美国富人征收70%的重税。这些声音背后,其实是越来越多的美国民众对当前贫富差距鸿沟进一步加深表达出的不满。而这个问题,在美国和欧洲都有着相当程度的代表性。 资本带来的两极分化 据媒体报道,美国加州大学伯克利分校祖克曼教授新近发表的研究报告表明,美国已经成为世界上贫富差距最悬殊的国家之一。占美国全部家庭0.1%的最富家庭,差不多拥有全国20%的财富,这已接近上世纪“咆哮的20年代”。这一比重,曾因大萧条后罗斯福新政而不断下降,上世纪70年代降到大约6%的谷底。但自80年代起又开始急剧恶化。 报告发现,2016年,占全美总数1%的126万个家庭户均拥有财富2680万美元,合计占全美家庭财富的40.8%,超过全美平均水平40倍,其平均收入相当于其余99%的家庭平均水平26.3倍。如此贫富悬殊的发展,日益形成巨大的社会问题。 必须看到,资本主导的经济增长必然带来两极分化,即靠资本收入和靠劳动收入差距的不断扩大。马克思和列宁早就揭示了资本运动过程中无产者的相对贫困化。因为资本所有者占据支配地位,其所得源于利润;劳动者则处于被支配地位,其所得仅是前者的成本。随着产业资本的主导地位逐渐让位于金融资本,资本市场的获利更多虚拟化,与劳动成本直接关联减弱。从而依靠资本增值积累财富的速度,更加快于依靠劳动收入积累财富的速度。 根据美国商务部经济分析局公布的数字,2000年至2016年美国人均个人可支配收入按2009年不变美元计算,增加了23.8%。但在2008-2009年金融危机爆发后的5年内,85.1%的增长额落到了1%的家庭手里。 在资本运动下贫富差距悬殊不是天然合理的,或应该被保护的。恰恰相反,资本运动虽然客观上带来收入差距巨大,但最后贫富差距的水平,在很大程度上取决于政府社会政策,即二次分配的结果。丹麦、荷兰、瑞典、德国等欧洲国家及亚洲的日本也是资本主导的经济,但贫富差距却比美国小得多。有英国学者认为,造成美国贫富差距急剧扩大的根源是美国政府实行的新自由主义政策体系,即以私有化、市场化、自由化为核心,维护富人利益。 减税加剧了贫富差距 2017年美国通过的《减税与就业法案》,初看起来给人以积极印象,即通过降低公司税提高企业投资活力,通过降低个人所得税提高居民收入和购买力。但进一步分析表明,这一法律主要是为富人服务的。美国联邦财政收入中,公司所得税所占比重不足5%。原因是利润的大头都给了企业,企业财产特别是金融资产越来越大,首先受益的是企业主。 至于个税的减少,据美国无党派机构税务政策中心2017年9月29日发布的一份初步研究显示,它的主要好处将落到富人手里。通过减税,年收入73万美元以上的富人税后收入可增加8.5%,即每年13万美元。而收入排在后95%的家庭,税后收入平均只能增加1.2%。随着时间的推移,到2027年全美80%家庭的税后收入将减少0.5%。而最富的1%家庭将平均少缴税约20万美元,税后收入将增加8.7%。更重要的一点,是该法取消了遗产税,致使富人财产不致减少。 在这种贫富差距日益加剧的背景下,自然引发了“社会主义”主张在美国的回归。比如,2016年桑德斯就提出了国家调节贫富差距的主张,并得到美国年轻人的广泛支持。与两年前相比,贫富差距进一步扩大,所以就有了沃伦以发动“阶级斗争”的高调口号宣布竞选2020年总统,民主党众议员科特尔兹则提出应对富人征收70%的重税。 公平与共同富裕是关键 美国及欧洲一些国家当前发生的事实表明,在社会经济发展中,同样以市场为基础配置资源,以市场为基础实行公平竞争,却依然存在资本主导和社会主导两种不同机制。一个为全体国民服务的政府,必须通过税收和其他杠杆,实现社会二次分配,节制资本、扶助弱势群体,把贫富差距控制在一定范围内。 实现这个目标,一个重要途径是提高最高个税率。有人说这不公平,富人之所以富是因为成功,“富人税”高了他们就会跑。前几年法国奥朗德政府打算对最富者征税70%,造成一些富人恐慌和外迁而最终放弃。今年达沃斯论坛上也有此惶惶议论。当然,具体提高到多少需要论证,很可能远不及70%,但提高富人税乃属必须。这并无不公平,因为富人财富的积累离不开经济活动,经济活动离不开劳动者的付出。富人的财富实际上是企业主和劳动者共同创造的。 另一个重要杠杆是遗产税,高额遗产税有助于富人减少财产传承欲望,而部分地以捐赠避税,从而惠及整个社会。当然,除了税收政策外,政府还有多种工具可以使用。 也有人会问,对全体人民的高福利会不会养懒人,致使社会发展进入疲态?这也是不少欧洲国家当前面临的问题,是政府社会政策的另一个难题。这种政策体系,必须建立在与劳动付出和经济增长相挂钩的基础上。坐享其成,同样不符合公平原则。 美国的贫富差距问题是一面镜子。它告诉我们,全体人民的共同富裕,是社会经济能否持续发展和稳定的基础,也是政府工作的中心目标。这正是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的一个重要精神实质。从实现全面小康,到基本实现现代化,直至全面建成社会主义现代化强国,我们都必须高度重视并认真缩小居民收入差距,彻底消灭贫困,不断提高中等收入群体的比重和收入水平,不断扩大社会福利,使所有发展成果为全体人民所共享。 文章选自《环球时报》,2019年2月25日
2019年2月26日 -
徐立凡:GDP总量超澳大利亚,粤港澳大湾区还有哪些底气?
文章选自新京报网,2019年2月21日
2019年2月25日 -
Xu Hongcai: Challenges and Changes to the Chinese Economy
By Xu Hongcai, a Non-Resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). In the past year, a drastic change has occurred. The growth momentum of the global economy was strong in the first half of 2018, but it slowed down in the second half of the year, and the slowdown will continue over the next two years. The IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5%, compared with 3.7% last year. The USA’s economy is expected to grow 2.5% this year, compared with 2.9% last year. At the same time, the IMF also lowered the expected growth in Europe, Japan, and developing countries. Looking back to 2018, “black swan” events took place frequently worldwide. The economic policies of the major economies changed a lot. The international oil price, the stock market, and foreign exchange market quaked dramatically. Global foreign direct investment was shrinking. Global trade growth is slowing down. China’s economy as a whole has remained stable. There are several economic indicators: first, the GDP exceeded ¥90 trillion for the first time; second, the per capita income reached $10,000 for the first time; third, the volume of foreign trade exceeded ¥30 trillion yuan for the first time; fourth, the foreign exchange reserves remained above $3 trillion. These achievements are indeed hard-won. Last year, China’s GDP grew by 6.6%, but it also showed a declining trend quarter by quarter. Even so, China has still contributed about 30% of the world’s new GDP growth and remained a veritable engine of world economic growth. China’s economy has made steady progress and shown signs of improvement in five aspects. First, the economic growth rate was within a reasonable range. It is expected that China’s GDP will grow by 6.3% this year and by more than 6.0% in 2020. China is likely to complete the building of a well-off society in all respects by 2020. Second, inflation was stable. The consumer price index (CPI) grew by an average of 2.1% in 2018, and urban and rural residents’ income growth was roughly in line with economic growth. Third, the employment situation was good, with 13 million urban jobs created for six consecutive years. Fourth, the international balance of payments has reached basic equilibrium. The trade surplus has narrowed, and there has been no large-scale capital outflow. Both FDI and outward direct investment have maintained steady growth, and the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Fifth, we made positive progress in supply-side structural reform, improved the economic structure and raised the quality and efficiency of development. The investment structure was optimized, with investment in environmental protection and agriculture increasing by 43.0% and 15.4% respectively in 2018. The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2% of GDP and contributed 59.7% to GDP growth. Consumption as the main driving force of economic growth was consolidated, and the final consumption expenditure contributed 76.2% to GDP, 18.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. China made solid progress in pursuing green development, and energy consumption per ¥10,000 of GDP decreased by 3.1% over the previous year. However, China’s economy also faces new challenges. World economic growth will slow down in the coming years, and the economic policies of the United States, Europe, and other major economies are full of uncertainties. With the prevalence of protectionism, populism, and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system with the WTO as the core and the global governance are facing unprecedented challenges. In recent years, China’s foreign trade surplus has narrowed year by year. In 2018, China’s foreign trade surplus hit a record low with only $350 billion and will keep declining in the future. Meanwhile, the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into one between the people’s ever-growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. In recent years, with the increase in labor costs and the improvement of environmental protection standards, some low-end manufacturing industries have begun to migrate to neighboring countries. Investment growth is also weak, and it is difficult to keep relying on expanding investment to drive economic growth. At the same time, the growth of household consumption is not strong. High housing prices in first-tier cities have squeezed consumer spending. The growth of traditional consumption, such as in housing and automobiles, was weak, while the growth of emerging consumption, such as tourism, culture, information, pensions, health, and sports consumption, accelerated, but their share on the whole was low. In recent years, enterprises have significantly increased their investment in research and development. However, it still takes time to cultivate new drivers of economic development. The manufacturing industry is large but not strong, and the overall level of science and technology is still low. In the past few years, although we have kept the bottom line of no systemic financial risks and generally maintained financial stability, some local financial risks have inevitably emerged, such as the collapse of P2P platforms, default of corporate bonds, and volatility of the stock market, which have had a negative impact on the development of the real economy. At the beginning of the new year, we feel the uncertainty from the outside world while starting a new round of reform and innovation. There are favorable conditions: first, China has maintained political stability, and policy continuity and flexibility. Second, domestic demand is relatively stable and the market is huge. With the growth of per capita income, people’s demand for diversified consumption increases. Third, the role of innovation in driving economic growth is rising, and technological progress and industrial restructuring are gaining momentum. Fourth, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth. Fifth, the dividends of a new round of deepening reform and opening up will be seen. China’s policymakers are making new adjustments. The first is a proactive fiscal policy. China will cut taxes and fees, including corporate income tax and value-added tax, especially reducing the operating costs of small businesses so that they can carry out their business more easily. At the same time, China will create a sound business environment and reduce institutional costs. By the end of 2018, China’s import tariffs had been cut from 9.8% to 7.5% and will be lowered in the future. China will increase investment in infrastructure to promote connectivity and the free flow of production factors. So, there is a need to expand the issuance of special local government bonds from ¥1.6 trillion to ¥2 trillion. The fiscal deficit is likely to rise to 3% from 2.6% last year. Second, China will adopt a prudent monetary policy with an appropriate level of money supply, preventing violent fluctuations in the financial market, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, dredging channels for conducting monetary policy, developing multi-tiered capital markets, and preventing and defusing major financial risks. Third, structural reform policies will focus on building and nurturing new system mechanisms. In June 2018, China revised the negative list of market access for foreign-invested enterprises. In December, it released the negative list of market access for domestic enterprises (2018 version). It plans to implement the “one list nationwide” management model in March 2019 and fully implement the management model of pre-establishment national treatment and negative list. Everything that the market can do should be left to the market, and the decisive role of the market in resource allocation should be brought into full play. Meanwhile, the role of the government should be managed well to make up for market failure. In 2019, China will accelerate reform in key areas, especially in the reform of state-owned assets management and state-owned enterprises. China will focus on maintaining and increasing the value of state-owned assets. It will expand the scope for mixed-ownership reform, break the monopoly and encourage competition. Private capital will gradually play a leading role. Meanwhile, China will establish a modern fiscal and tax system, straighten out the relationship between the government and the market, and reduce the cost of government operations. In financial reform, China will improve the efficiency of financial services for the real economy. Large financial institutions should realize strategic transformation, strengthen internal risk control and improve risk pricing ability, so as to adapt to the trend of comprehensive operation of financial institutions and expand financial openness. China will encourage the development of private banks and other small- and medium-sized financial institutions. In my opinion, the most promising place for China’s economic development in the next decade is the rural-urban area. China is gradually establishing a mechanism for the two-way and orderly flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, promoting integrated development between urban and rural areas, rural revitalization, and the construction of urban infrastructure. In particular, China should deepen the reform of the land system, increase the application of new technology and improve the rural market system, promote the transformation of agricultural development from a small-scale peasant economy based on families to a modernized agriculture, and promote the development of urbanization by fostering new industries and creating new employment opportunities. With a large number of farmers turned into citizens, the consumption growth of Chinese residents has great potential. Looking into 2019, the difficulties in the first quarter may be large, but China’s economy is projected to stabilize in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will remain between 6.0% and 6.5%, and the CPI rise will be around 2.2%. 13 million new urban jobs will be created. Investment in fixed assets is expected to grow by about 6.5%. The growth of imports and exports will slow down, and the trade surplus will narrow to about $300 billion. However, the trade structure tends to be optimized, and the competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises will be enhanced. China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, cutting taxes and fees by about ¥2 trillion and expanding infrastructure investment by the same amount. Monetary policy will be slightly loose at the margin. M2, the broad money, will grow by about 9.0%. RMB loans will grow by about 10%, and the nominal interest rate will remain unchanged. By the end of 2019, the dollar-RMB exchange rate will remain within 7.0. In general, China’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the future. From chinausfocus,2019-1-31
2019年2月25日