CCG联合凤凰卫视特别节目| 全球战“疫”观察13 | 疫情将中美关系引向何方？
2020年5月9日
新冠疫情蔓延全球，给近年来一直摩擦不断的中美经贸关系又添变数，此次疫情将为中美合作提供新契机？还是会加速两国之间的经济脱钩？全球化智库(CCG)联合凤凰卫视推出抗疫特别系列节目，多维度视角解读疫情下的政治经济文化。
文字实录 | 疫情将中美关系引向何方？
凤凰卫视主持人朱梓橦：新冠疫情蔓延全球，给近年来一直摩擦不断的中美经贸关系又添变数，此次疫情将为中美合作提供新契机？还是会加速两国之间的经济脱钩？今天我们请到了中美关系专家杜大伟，分享他的洞见。
主持人: So david, you’ve been committed to advancing global economic integration. Do you think this particular pandemic will cause a president trump and the US government to reconsider its trade policies with China?
（大卫，你一直致力于推动全球经济一体化。你认为这一特殊的疫情会导致特朗普总统和美国政府重新考虑对华贸易政策吗?）
全球化智库特邀嘉宾、布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心资深研究员杜大伟（David Dollar）：
Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening so far. Some of the business community in the US have lobbied the white house saying we should reduce the tariffs against China. It would help American businesses and be a goodwill gesture. But up till now, the white house is definitely not been interested in that. I worry that this may all lead to more protectionism. You may get the US increasing its import restrictions, particularly in connection with this large stimulus bill, we may get some protectionist measures. I think that would be quite unfortunate. So it would be nice if the US responded by opening up the economy, more getting rid of the protection. But we don’t see that happening so far. So I’m not too optimistic about that. Mhm.
（不幸的是，到目前为止我还没有看到这种情况发生。美国一些商界团体游说白宫，称我们应该降低对中国的关税。这将有助于美国企业，也是一种善意的姿态。但到目前为止，白宫肯定对这个问题不感兴趣。我担心这可能会导致更多的保护主义。美国可能增加进口限制，特别是在这个庞大的刺激法案下，我们可能会采取一些保护主义措施。我认为那将是非常不幸的。因此，如果美国的回应是开放经济，更多地摆脱这种保护，那将是一件好事。但到目前为止，我们还没有看到这种情况发生。所以我对此并不是特别乐观。）
主持人: So is it your view that this could perhaps cause more disengagement between the two nations?
（所以你是否认为这可能会导致两国之间产生更多的疏离呢?）
杜大伟：That seems the most likely outcome in what we call the medium term, meaning the next three to five years, particularly a president trump is reelected. I would expect US China relations to continue to get worse and worse. On the other hand, if president former vice president joe biden is elected, but that’s not gonna change everything. the US and China still have a lot of complicated issues, but under a 5-year administration, the US would rejoin the Paris climate accord, probably rejoined some kind of Iran agreement, be more willing to work multilateral, e WTO and other organizations.
（这似乎是所谓的中期阶段最有可能的结果，中期阶段意味着未来三到五年，尤其是特朗普总统连任。我预计美中关系会越来越糟。另一方面，如果前副总统拜登当选，这不会改变一切，美国和中国仍然有许多复杂的问题，但如果是拜登政府执政，美国将重新加入巴黎气候协议，可能重新加入某种伊朗协议，更愿意工作的更加多边化，和世贸组织等其他组织合作。）
So I think that creates a better foundation for relations. And even if they don’t miraculously change overnight, I think relations would tend to get better if the US were engaged with the international community and institutions. But I worry that with a second trump administration, probably the US will just keep isolating itself in different dimensions.
（所以我认为这为两国关系奠定了更好的基础。即使它不会在一夜之间奇迹般地改变，我认为，如果美国与国际社会和机构进行接触，两国关系也会趋于改善。但我担心，有了第二个特朗普政府，美国可能只会继续在不同层面孤立自己。）
【疫情对美国大选的影响】
主持人：How do you think this pandemic would affect the elections? How do you think this pandemic would affect the elections? Do you think president trump will get re elected? What’s your prediction?
（你认为疫情会如何影响选举?你认为特朗普总统会再次当选吗?你的预测是什么?）
杜大伟：So that’s a very hard question answer. It’s gonna be a close selection, and it’s gonna come down to two or three states. So you may find that in some of the states that have been hard hit by the virus, that there’s very negative view about the president.
（这是一个很难回答的问题。这将是一场势均力敌的选举，最终会归结到两三个州。所以你可能会发现，在一些遭受病毒重创的州，人们对总统的看法非常负面。）
But in the US system, it’s really only a handful of states that matter. So what happens in michigan, pennsylvania, ohio, couple of other states in other parts of the country, like arizona, perhaps florida will be competitive this time. So it’s what happens to the virus in a few key states could very well have a big effect on the outcome of the election.
（但在美国的体制里面，其实要紧的只有少数几个州。所以在密歇根州，宾夕法尼亚州，俄亥俄州，还有美国其他一些州，比如亚利桑那州，也许这次佛罗里达州会更有竞争力。所以，几个关键州的疫情状况很可能对选举结果产生重大影响。）
【中美关系未来】
主持人: I think it’s fair to say US and China relation has gone through so much in the last 40 years. There are UPS and downs, and this pandemic is also a test. David, what is your view on the prospects of sino US relations going forward?
（我认为，公平地说，中美关系在过去40年里经历了许多，有起有落，这次疫情也是一次考验。大卫，你对中美关系的前景有什么看法?）
杜大伟：I think China and US relations are at the lowest point of the last 40 years. That’s how we were going into the pandemic. I think the trade war, there seemed to be a temporary truce, but I wasn’t very confident about that temporary truce.
（我认为中美关系正处于40年来的最低点。我们就是在这样的背景下面临疫情的。贸易战争似乎暂时休战了，但我对暂时休战不是很有信心。）
I’m optimistic about US China relations as we go further out in time, because I think it’s not gonna be possible to protect against future pandemic or to deal with climate change, which is gonna be really quite critical or to deal with nuclear non proliferation.
随着时间的推移，我对美中关系持乐观态度，因为我认为（不合作）无法防范未来的流行病或应对气候变化，这将是非常关键的，或应对核不扩散。
So I’m of the view that China and the US have to work together on global issues. If we have any hope of solving global issues. And as the two biggest economies in the world, we each have a big stake in dealing with these global problems. So I think eventually logic will win out. But it may not happen in the next two or three years. It may take a little longer.
（所以我认为中美两国应该在全球问题上合作，如果我们希望解决全球问题。作为世界上最大的两个经济体，在处理这些全球性问题上我们都利害攸关。所以我认为理智最终会胜出。）
Hopefully, the two sides will eventually come back and realize they have to work together on these global issues. I guess I would also I see the Free trade system as a global public good and it’s in the US and china’s interest to reform the WTO and strengthen the open global trading system. These things are the foundation of our prosperity, and we have a mutual interest in supporting these things.
（希望双方最终能够重新认识到，他们必须在这些全球性问题上共同努力。我把自由贸易体系看作是一种全球公共产品，改革世贸组织和加强开放的全球贸易体系符合美国和中国的利益。这些都是我们繁荣的基础，支持这些事情符合我们的共同利益。）
播出日期：
3月23日-4月17日
播出时间：
首播：周一至周五：19:15 – 19:20
重播 (1)：周二至周六：09:40 – 09:45
重播 (2)：周二至周六：13:55 – 14:00
【节目背景】
在新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延背景下，全球化智库（CCG）与凤凰卫视携手策划针对疫情的国际观察节目。节目着眼于人类命运共同体及全球化高度，以真实、理性、务实为基点，通过与国内外知名专家学者面对面访谈或视频连线，深度解读全球新冠肺炎疫情期及恢复期的疫情控制、中外关系、全球合作、贸易政策、公共卫生、全球治理体系改革、应急管理体系完善、污名化等话题，从多维视角探讨疫情对全球发展的影响。
【往期回看】
全球战“疫”观察1 | 我们不是孤岛，全球危机如何“破题”？
全球战“疫”观察 6 | 疫情下的线上G20
【视频地址】：http://t.cn/A6ZJMDoq
文章选自凤凰卫视《寰宇同舟—全球战“疫”观察》栏目，2020年4月8日
