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郑永年：现代社会为何生育意愿低？
郑永年，CCG学术专家委员会主任、新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长进入新世纪以来，人类低生育问题越来越成为各国关切的课题，尤其是东亚社会。日本是东亚最先现代化的国家，也是最发达的经济体，但过低的生育率日益难以支撑这个庞大的经济体。从长远来看，低生育甚至会威胁到日本民族的生存。根据日本医疗、卫生和社会保障部所属“国立社会保障与人口问题研究所”的估算，日本人口将在2053年跌破1亿，到2065年，日本人口将比2015年的1.27亿减少三成，减至8808万。日本的少子化、老龄化现象异常严重。根据2016年的数据，65岁以上人口占总人口的比率为26.7%；2015年，平均每名女性生育1.45，而如果要维持目前人口规模，则每名女性一生需要生育2.07个孩子。低生育率与婚姻和性有关。根据日本2017年4月公布的调查结果显示，在到50岁都从未结过婚的人口比率即“终身未婚者”中，在2015年男性为23.7%，女性为14.6%。这个数据比上次2010年调查时上升超过了三个百分点。也就是说，男性约每四人中就有一人，女性约每七人中就有一人终身未婚。更早的一份调查（2011年）则显示，在18岁至34岁的女性中，有38.7%还是处女，而同一年龄段中，男人还是童子身的比率也达到36.2%。报告还显示，18岁至34岁的女性中，没有男朋友的占到49.5%，没有过性经验的达到38.7%。而在35岁至39岁的年龄段中，有25.5%的女性和27.7%的男性从未有过性经验。日本当然不是特例，东亚各个经济体都是如此。韩国、新加坡也都出现了同样的趋势；即使曾经是人口大国的中国（包括台湾和香港）也紧随其后。没有多长时间之前（或者在改革开放之前），中国一直为人口众多而烦恼。为了控制人口增长，中国在1980年代开始了“独生子女”（即一对夫妻只生育一个）的计划生育政策。但在短短的30来年之后，中国开始出现劳动力紧张问题。低生育率也已经俨然成为一大趋势，在大城市情况更为严重。因此，中国政府不得不改变计划生育政策。影响低生育率的不仅仅是政府的计划生育政策，更是一些“自然”因素所致。根据一项研究，中国男性的精子数（即每毫升精液中的精子数目）从1970年代初的1亿个，大幅度下降到2012年的2000万个。伴随经济发展而来的生活压力、污染、结婚及生育年龄的推迟、抽烟及喝酒等都可能导致这一现象的产生。中国华中地区的一项调查显示，2015年在接受检查的男子中，大约18%的人具有足够数量的精液，可以符合捐献精子的标准，而这一比率在2001年的时候要高得多，是56%。无论精子数量的减少还是质量的下降，都影响生育。也很显然，这种现象也发生在东亚其他经济体中。东亚社会的低生育危机几乎和18世纪末马尔萨斯的“人口论”所预测的截然相反。马尔萨斯“人口论”的核心就是人口的过度增长会导致人类生存危机。这一理论有两个前提：第一，食物是人类生存所必需的；第二，两性间的情欲是必然的，而且几乎会是永恒状态。从这两个前提出发可以得出一个基本的经济学比例，即食物或者生产资料的增长与人口的增值之间的关系：人口的增值比生活资料增长要快，人口是按照几何级数增长的，而生活资料则只按算术级数增长。保持两个级数平衡的唯一出路就是抑制人口增长。马尔萨斯认为，抑制人口增长分为预防抑制和积极抑制两种。预防抑制主要是道德的抑制，即考虑到无力负担家庭而不结婚或者推迟结婚；而起决定性作用的主要是积极抑制，即战争、瘟疫、繁重劳动、贫困、饥荒等等，灾难会缩短生命，恢复被破坏的平衡。把马尔萨斯的“人口理论”放置于今天上述东亚的人口现实中，没有多少人可以理解。马尔萨斯人口理论曾红极一时，并对很多国家的人口政策产生过重大影响。那么为什么这个被视为科学的理论和今天的现实之间会产生那么巨大的差异呢？产生这种差异的因素可能很多，但资本主义则是关键要素。在马尔萨斯创造“人口理论”时期，世界还处于原始资本主义阶段，他所理解的世界也是他所目睹的世界，即一个充满饥饿、病痛、贫困、瘟疫和战争的世界。马尔萨斯大概没有想象到，他所经验到的经济制度在他死后不仅彻底改变了人类的经济生态，而且改变了人类的生育环境。或者说，资本主义不仅为人类创造了巨大的财富，把人们从瘟疫、繁重劳动、贫困和饥荒中解救出来，而且有效地制约了人们的生育动机。无论从哪个角度来看，生育并不是资本主义的一部分；相反，资本主义对生育产生着负面的影响，制造着人类的生育危机。资本主义如何影响人类生育 那么，资本主义如何影响人类生育呢？至少可以从如下几个方面来讨论。第一，资本主义创造了劳动力市场。诚如马克思所说，资本主义的本质就是把世界上所有的东西转化成为“商品”，自由地在市场上进行交易和买卖。资本主义很轻易地把男人和女人转化成为商品，投入到劳动力市场。较之其他市场，劳动力市场是资本主义的核心。根据马克思的说法，劳动力的自由买卖是资本主义制度的前提。这和传统社会构成了鲜明的对比。在传统社会，女性并不是劳动力市场的一部分，她们在一定程度上是“生育工具”，而这种“工具”也是被女性所接受的，不管是被动的还是自愿的。第二，资本主义导致家庭的解体。资本主义不仅导致了社会共同体的解体，而且更导致了家庭的解体。男女劳动力的自由流动是家庭解体的第一步。在传统家庭体制下，男女两性都面临巨大的生育压力。一旦家庭解体，那么生育就不会面临像传统社会那样大的家庭压力。这尤其表现在东亚社会。传统东亚社会对家庭极为重视，来自家庭的生育压力巨大。例如中国传统有“不孝有三，无后为大”的说法。不过，资本主义为个人主义的崛起，提供了经济和制度的条件。个人主义对人们的生育观念产生了巨大的负面影响。第三，资本主义导致了巨大的生活压力，也使得人们不敢生育过多，或者干脆不生育。资本主义的特征就是方方面面的竞争，不仅在工作场所有竞争，而且在家庭生活各方面都有竞争，例如小孩教育、社交生活等。竞争消耗了男女两性的精力，使得人们没有多大的精力来生育；而过高的生活成本更使得人们不敢生育。第四，资本主义导致了女性认同的急剧变化。资本主义有效改善着男女两性的社会经济状况。随着女性教育程度的提高，女性的自我生存和发展能力也迅速提高。在现代社会，女性的生存和发展能力甚至超越男性。在传统社会，女性要依靠男性而生存；今天，女性完全可以独立地生存和发展。这种独立性使得女性可以决定生育或不生育。不管怎样，追求自由独立也是女性的天性。较之传统社会的自然生育，现代避孕技术的发展有助于女性追求这种自由。第五，性的市场化导致的生育问题。随着男女两性性观念的变化，性市场以不同形式得以发展和发达起来。性观念变化促使男女两性视身体部位的商业化为正常。例如，传统带有歧视性的“妓女”概念，现在被视为是中性的“性工作者”概念，性市场的发达对生育有负面影响。在传统社会，性主要通过家庭而获得，通过家庭而获得的性往往导致生育。但现在则不是，男女都可以通过不同形式的性市场获得性，而通过性市场而得到的性没有再生产（生育）功能。（尽管这种形式的性也会产生类似“私生子”的现象，但“私生子”这个群体的数量可以忽略不计。）今天，互联网的迅猛发展更是加快了性市场发达，使得性交易更加简单。道德因素和生育率的关系 从经验现象看，生育可能和马尔萨斯所说的“道德因素”有关。不过，这种关联并不是马尔萨斯所说的“抑制”生育，而是鼓励因素。在今天的世界，很容易观察得到道德因素，尤其是宗教因素和生育率高低至少在现象上的关联。在当代欧洲社会，尽管也经历了严重的生育率下降问题，但宗教的复苏仍然为人们的生育提供着动机，再加上福利社会等因素，生育率有所改善。宗教和生育率的关系在伊斯兰世界表现最为明显。在伊斯兰社会，无论是发达社会还是比较落后的社会，生育率都没有受到太大的影响。实际上，随着社会经济发展水平的提高，生育率也在提高。再者，社会经济的发展也有效降低了伊斯兰社会的婴儿死亡率，提高人们的人均寿命。因此，这些年来，在世界各文明中，穆斯林的人口增加迅速。比较而言，东亚社会遇到的麻烦就很大。正如本文前面所讨论的，这个地区的各经济体都面临着生育危机。尽管东亚一些发达社会也希望仿照欧洲的福利社会，通过改善家庭的福利来“刺激”生育，但至少到现在为止，并没有找到任何有效的手段来改善生育。一种解释是，通过诸如福利而得到的“刺激”机制，远不能抵消资本主义所产生的巨大压力。另一种解释是，低生育率是一种文化，一旦这种文化形成，转化成为人们的观念，那么无论怎样的政府政策都难以改变这种文化。不过，如果回到马尔萨斯，那么人们可以认为，影响东亚社会低生育率的主要是道德因素。东亚社会并非欧洲或者穆斯林那样的宗教社会，而是世俗化社会。传统道德是通过社会共同体和家庭制度而形成的。今天，随着家庭和社会共同体的解体，东亚社会已经没有任何能够产生促成人口增长的道德因素，包括宗教因素。任何社会，人口是最基本的社会要素，所有其他的一切包括经济和政治，都是建立在人口这个基本要素之上的。资本主义的发展“俘虏”了社会和政治，使得社会和政治都从属于自己，因此社会的重心从人类本身的再生产，转移到了经济要素的再生产。这就表明，只要资本主义仍然是东亚社会的组织原则和意识形态，那么东亚社会的生育危机就很难得到缓解。今天人们的思考仅仅停留在表面，极其肤浅，例如如何用机器人来替代人工等。如果不能超越资本主义，那么人口危机也即最深刻的社会危机，只是一个时间问题，而不是可能性问题。即使就时间来说，任何一位人口学家也都可以精确地预测，每一个经济体的危机什么时候到来。文章选自 IPP评论，2018年11月2日
2018年11月7日 -
郑永年：度量中国40年变化的坐标
郑永年，CCG学术专家委员会主任、新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长今年是中国改革开放40周年。从1978年到2018年，中国各方面都发生了巨变，令人眼花缭乱。如何度量和评价所发生的变化，是一个可讨论的问题。在一些人看来是积极的变化，但在另一些人看来则是消极的；在一些人看来是正面的变化，但在另一些人看来则是负面的；在一些人看来是进步的变化，在另一些人看来是退步的。这并不难理解，对所有这些变化，每个人、每一个社会群体心目中的答案都是不同的，每个人、每一个社会群体大凡都会根据自身的生活经验来做判断。那为什么会出现这种矛盾的局面呢？这里头的因素很复杂，有三个方面的因素是可以加以考虑的。第一，人们的主观目标、道德因素、价值观认同等不同，导致评价的不同，即平常所说的“人心坐标”。这些个体层面的因素很复杂，影响着人们对变化的评价。第二，客观世界尤其是物质世界的发展，往往是不以人们的意志为转移的，或者说是客观规律，人们可以称之为“物质坐标”。在这个层面，很多发展即使人们不喜欢，甚至反对，也很难不发生。例如，尽管经济发展必然对环境造成影响，也会导致社会贫富差异扩大，但除了绝少数能够不去追求，多数人还是会去追求的。人们如果认同这个客观规律，评价会倾向于肯定；如果人们不能认同这个客观规律，评价就会倾向于否定。第三，更重要的是，在“人心坐标”和“物质坐标”之间还有一个“制度坐标”。这是为了调节“人心坐标”和“物质坐标”。没有制度，人难以和物质世界共存。因此，不管任何社会，人们把制度看得很重。从学术上看，“制度坐标”涉及两个层面的问题。第一个层面的问题是应然的，即，中国的制度应当通过怎样的变化而成为怎样的制度？第二个层面的问题是实然的，即，中国的制度实际上在发生怎样的变化、会变成什么样的制度？用第一种方式回答问题的，可以称之为理想主义者，而用第二种方法回答问题的，可以称之为现实主义者。但实际变化的结果往往是既不像理想主义者那样理想，也不像现实主义者那样现实，而是两者的混合。理想主义者对改变现实有影响，主观意图对改变客观环境的影响不可忽视，否则很难解释历史的进步。同时，理想主义又受制于现实环境，使得理想不会像原先所设想的那样实现。这样的结果肯定不是皆大欢喜，既不符合理想主义，也不符合现实主义。中国过去40年的改革历程就是如此。改革开放40年的混合体制上世纪80年代初，改革刚刚开始不久，中国的理想主义者设定了两个改革开放的目标，即经济自由化和政治民主化。简单地说，当时的理想主义者的参照系就是发达西方国家，即市场经济加民主政治。40年过去了，中国既没有维持现状，也没有变成西方。无论是经济还是政治，中国成了混合体制。在经济上，官方也将此定义为混合经济，或者社会主义市场经济；在政治上，也是一种混合体制，既非西方所说的专制，也非西方所说的民主。就经济制度来说，正在形成中的混合经济，不仅仅是多种所有制的混合体，更是传统与现代的混合体。西方把中国看成国家资本主义，实际上国家资本只是这种混合经济体的一部分，在很多方面甚至是不那么重要的一部分。中国从汉朝到今天几千年，可以说是“吾道一以贯之”，一直存在着这样一个混合经济体。人们叫它为“资本主义”也好，或者叫它“市场”也好，至少有三个层面的市场，或者有三层资本。顶层的永远是国家资本，底层的是自由民间资本，还有中间层面，就是国家和民间互动的部分。从汉朝开始就是这样，有些领域国家一定要垄断，占主导地位，但大量的空间要放给民间；中间的经济空间，像盐、铁那样的产业，对国家很重要，但即使对国家很重要的空间，也可以叫私人去做。到了近代，就产生官办、官督商办、商办等经济形态。由此可见，混合经济体其实是中国非常古老的一个经济实践，并不是现代的创造。在中国那么长的历史中，只有四个时期走了极端，变成经济国家主义化，国家完全占了主导地位，市场几乎被管控甚至消灭，包括王莽改革、王安石改革、朱元璋时期、当代的毛泽东时期。在这四个时期，国家跟市场完全失衡。除了这四个时期，中国的国家和市场基本上都是相对平衡的。从历史经验看，中国今后还会是这三种资本、三层市场，往前发展。这种制度有它的劣势，与西方市场经济比较，效率差一点，相比西方制度的优势是其能够预防大的经济危机。西方资本主义，正如马克思所分析的，会爆发周期性的经济危机，比如1930年代的大萧条、1997/98年亚洲金融危机、2007/08年全球金融危机等。中国过去40年基本上没有经济危机，这跟政府的调控能力有关系，跟这个制度机制有关系。中国国有企业具调节力近代以来，西方经济主要有两个调整手段，一个是货币政策，另一个是财政政策。可是当利率趋于零的时候，货币政策就很难能发生作用。现在西方频繁搞量化宽松（QE），但这并非解决问题的有效方法。就西方的财政政策而言，当政府的财政赤字过大以后，财政政策就不管用了。中国除了财政和货币政策以外，还有国有企业这个经济部门可以调节。随着全球化的持续，未来经济会越来越波动。可以预见，中国无论如何都不会放弃国有部门。不过，这三层资本之间，边界在哪里，每一个时代都在调整，每一个时代都在变化，以取得政府跟市场之间的平衡。政治制度也是一种混合制度，这个制度的特点是：开放的一党制、以党领政、内部三权分工合作。一说政治制度，很多人心目中的标杆就是西方的三权分立，即立法、行政、司法三权之间的互相制衡，但很多人可能没有意识到，中国几千年的政治制度也有“内部三权的分工合作”——决策、执行、监察。这个制度在汉朝建立，一直到晚清都没有变化。人们不能说这个制度没有生命力。当人们说中国文明几千年不中断时，就必须思考，哪些东西没有中断？王朝是中断的，皇帝来来去去，甚至中国的人种都有变化，中国的“汉”不是一个种族概念，而是一个文化概念。那中国哪些东西没有变化呢？就是这里所说的经济制度和政治体制从来没有变化，只发生了一些小的变动。1980年代中国开始政治体制改革，当时还有点想往西方的方向发展，提倡党政分开。这也正常，因为近代以来很多人都希望往这个方向发展。孙中山搞了一个“五权宪法”，即在西方三权基础之上，加上中国传统的考试权和监察权。不过，孙中山基本上是个理论家，没有机会实践。从台湾的实践看，中西方两个体制背后有不同的逻辑，要么西方的三权为主，要么中国的三权为主，两个体制加起来很难有效运作。台湾现在基本上是西方的三权机制，考试权基本上已经无用了，监察院还在，但基本上不起什么作用。政治重走“党政分工”今天的中国再次走上内部“三权分工合作”的道路。1980年代提倡“党政分开”，现在则提倡“党政分工”。“党政分开”的道路走到1980年代后期已经走不下去。党政分开，党的主管和政府的主管两个人之间如果有矛盾，就变成了党政两个机构之间的矛盾，会产生党和政府的分裂。因此，1992年中共十四大开启了“三合一制度”，即党的总书记、国家主席、军委主席由一个人担任。这一制度其实是对“党政分开”的直接否定。江泽民和胡锦涛时期都是这个思路。西方建立在多党制基础之上的政治制度，可以称为“外部多元主义”。在西方历史发展过程中，先有市民社会后有国家，存在不同的政治力量，一个国家可以有几个政治过程，最终的制度表述是多党制和“三权分立”。但中国不是。中国几千年来就是皇权，秦始皇以后一直是先有国家后有社会。因为皇帝只能有一个，所以只能有一个政治过程。但怎么做才能让统治比较有效呢？那就是把一个政治过程分成三段，第一段是决策，第二段是执行，第三段是监察。现在的“三权分工合作体制”有点类似传统体制。必须解释的就是传统皇权怎么演变成为现在的党权？怎么看这个“党”？中国共产党其实不是西方理解意义上的政党。从结构上说，党权就是组织化的皇权。以前的皇帝是个人，是家庭，现在的党是一个组织。在这个转型中，西方有些概念提供了有效的工具，比如“民族主义”“主权”和“列宁主义的政党”。马克思主义的中国化，在制度层面正是表现在这个地方。一个基于个体家庭之上的皇权，已经转成基于一个组织之上的党权。以前的皇权分成三个阶段，现在的“党权”也分成三个阶段——决策权、执行权和监察权。但人们不能说这是简单地对传统的回归，因为现在党是个集体，而以前皇帝是个人家庭。这个制度一旦确立，不能低估其生命力。不过，中共十九大尽管正式确立了“内部三权体制”，但这个体制的有效运作还需要进一步的改革。比如决策权，以前主要掌握在皇帝和他的大臣、皇兄皇弟少数人手里，现在则不一样了。执政党中央委员会、全国人大、政协、重要的社会团体（共青妇）、各类智库等，都可以成为决策权的一部分。现在的问题就是，决策权怎么更民主化一点呢？以前不需要民主，但现在有了民主的观念，民主就必须体现在制度层面。监察权对反腐败很重要，但监察权也不能滥用。汉朝规定，不可以事无巨细地什么都监察，规定只有六个领域可以监察，否则执行权就没有办法行使了。现阶段的监察权就面临这个问题。这种制度和西方的民主制度是矛盾的，但是和民主本身并不矛盾。不难观察到，中国的内部三权分工合作制度可以吸纳西方很多民主的要素，但不会成为西方的制度。从历史经验看，“人心坐标”和“物质坐标”随着时代的变化而变化，但制度坐标的变化似乎更为恒定。不难理解，“制度”与“人心”和“物质”之间永远存在着张力和矛盾，人们对制度的评价和认同永远不会完全一致。不过，正是这些张力和矛盾，构成了制度进步的动力。对执政者来说，所需要的就是维持制度与其他两者之间的平衡。文章选自狮说新语，2018年11月6日
2018年11月7日 -
黄亚生：美国早晚要出事
黄亚生，全球化智库（CCG）学术委员会专家，美国麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院副院长、政治经济和国际管理教授。编者按在上一周，美国发生了两起令人瞩目的暴力事件。一件是连环“炸弹邮包”事件，一件是周六发生在匹茨堡的严重枪击事件。MIT斯隆管理学院教授黄亚生指出，一系列暴力事件的发生显示了目前美国社会和政治已经完全撕裂了。暴力远没有结束，只要特朗普还在执政， 美国早晚会出大事。全文共3652字，阅读时长约7分钟。2016年大选后有一位朋友问我美国将来会发生什么事。我回答她，“暴力会增加。” 上周，美国特勤局和联邦调查局先后发现了十多件寄给名人政客的“炸弹邮包”。在这些邮包中，调查人员均发现了炸弹引爆装置。所有“炸弹邮包”的收件人均为民主党领导人或与民主党密切相关的名人，包括美国前任总统奥巴马、美国前国务卿希拉里和民主党资助人、金融大亨索罗斯等。10月26日，美国执法机构逮捕了名叫塞萨尔·萨罗克（Cesar Sayoc Jr）的犯罪嫌疑人，他是一名极右翼分子，联邦调查局的调查人员发现他的汽车上贴满了极端右翼宣传标语和海报。被捕的嫌疑人塞萨尔·萨罗克是一名极端右翼分子图片来源：CNN就在连环“炸弹邮包”事件发生的几天后，星期六（10月27日），宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市一间名为“生命之树”的犹太教堂发生了严重枪击事件，造成11人死亡。据美国哥伦比亚广播公司报道，枪手是46岁的罗伯特·鲍尔斯（Robert Bowers）。案发时，他手持一支步枪（有可能是AK47）和两把手枪冲进犹太教堂，开枪时高喊着“所有犹太人必须死！”从鲍尔斯的社交媒体可以看出，他也是一名白人至上的极右翼分子。他在社交媒体上经常发布反难民、反犹太的言论。他甚至抨击特朗普还不够激进，认为特朗普依然支持全球化，不是一个民族主义者。 连环“炸弹邮包”事件和匹茨堡枪击案不禁让人想起了去年8月发生在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔市的暴乱事件。去年8月11-12日， 多个白人至上主义团体成员出现在夏洛茨维尔市的弗吉尼亚大学校园内，手持火炬集会示威。这场集会名为“团结右翼”，是为了抗议夏洛茨维尔市政府移除南北战争期间南方邦联军队主将罗伯特·李塑像的计划，同时呼吁白人团结起来对抗少数族裔，维护自身利益。12日下午，白人至上主义团体成员、来自俄亥俄州的20岁男子詹姆斯·菲尔茨（James Fields）驾车撞向反对者人群，造成一名32岁女子死亡，19人受伤，另有十余人因集会中的其他冲突而受伤。 夏洛茨维尔暴力事件、连环“炸弹邮包”事件以及和匹茨堡枪击案这一系列暴力事件的发生显示了目前美国社会和政治已经完全撕裂了。暴力远没有结束，只要特朗普还在执政， 美国早晚会出大事，原因有三：特朗普时代暴力文化上行下效首先，美国的现任总统公开宣扬和鼓励暴力。自特朗普竞选以来，他不断地通过激进的言语，甚至是诉诸语言暴力和人身攻击来煽动他的支持者。在竞选总统期间，特朗普曾直接把墨西哥非法移民描述成“他们是毒贩，他们是罪犯，他们是强奸犯”。在面对竞选对手时，特朗普更是以给对方起绰号的的方式，对对手进行人身攻击。在共和党党内初选时，特朗普将共和党参议员马克·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）称作“小马克”（little Marco），以讽刺其身高偏矮，男子气概不够。而在与民主党总统候选人希拉里角逐总统席位时，特朗普更是直接公开叫对方为“骗子希拉里”（crooked Hillary）。当了总统之后，特朗普依然维持这种语言暴力的风格。根据《纽约时报》统计，从竞选期间算起截止到今年7月，特朗普在社交媒体上骂了至少487次，有的针对个人，有时候骂地方，还有让他不满的事情。在这次的连环“炸弹邮包”事件中，有一些邮包发给了媒体相关人员。一直以来，特朗普都毫不不掩饰对美国主流媒体的厌恶。他曾把CNN电视台叫做“假新闻”，把《纽约时报》称为“失败且腐朽的《纽约时报》”。特朗普曾公开把媒体称为“人民的公敌”。而在最近的一次集会演讲中，特朗普甚至当众赞扬了一名共和党众议员去年对一名记者的施暴行为。共和党蒙大拿州众议员格雷格·吉安福特（Greg Gianforte）曾在去年众议院特别选举竞选期间，把一名记者过肩摔倒在地。吉安福特因此被判罚参加愤怒管理课程和社区服务。特朗普在蒙大拿州的竞选集会上，号召民众在11月的中期选举中支持吉安福特连任。 特朗普表示说，当他去年刚刚听说吉安福特过肩摔了一名记者时，他担心吉安福特会在特别选举中失利。但是特朗普紧接着表示，“但我转念一想， 我很熟悉蒙大拿，我认为这样的举动对他的竞选会有帮助。而且选举结果证明了我的想法。任何人都可以进行过肩摔，这不要紧。 我就喜欢这类（喜欢暴力）的人。” 特朗普公开称赞了蒙大拿州共和党众议员格雷格·吉安福特（图左）过肩摔了一名记者的行为图片来源：POLITICO特朗普的政治语言暴力化使得他的支持者越来越偏激，认为语言暴力，甚至更进一步的实际暴力行为，是可以帮助他们达成政治目的的正当手段。 因此，暴力事件的发生是早晚的事情。美国的枪支泛滥是滋养暴力事件的温床其次，美国国内的枪支泛滥为极端分子提供了实施更多极端暴力行为的客观条件。我在去年的文章《黄亚生：枪击血案再起，共和党反控枪原罪难赎》中谈到，因为共和党和其背后利益集团的阻挠，美国在控枪问题上一直没有进展。根据研究机构“小型枪支研究”2017年的研究报告显示，美国每100名居民就平均拥有枪支120.5把，人均枪支持有量高居世界榜首。也就是说，美国的民用枪支数量比美国人口还要多。根据研究机构“枪支政策”的统计，枪支数量与枪支造成的死亡数量有着明显的正相关性。枪支越多的国家，因枪支死亡的人数也越多。美国每100名居民就平均拥有枪支120.5把，人均枪支持有量居世界榜首图片来源：VOX枪支数量与枪支造成的死亡数量有着明显的正相关性图片来源：VOX右翼是美国的政治暴力行为的主要来源美国右翼的愚昧和无知使得他们极易相信一些虚假消息，并且很容易被极端言论煽动做出极端行为。这次连环“炸弹邮包”事件的嫌疑犯就是一个很说明问题的案例。 连环“炸弹邮包”犯罪嫌疑人萨罗克的律师在接受电视采访时表示萨罗克是一个悲惨的小人物，智商低下，五十岁多没有任何收入，原本一直借住在母亲家里，直到被母亲赶出。据《纽约时报》报道，萨罗克曾于2017年在一家披萨店工作期间，接受了种族主义反同性恋的偏激言论。他告诉他的同性恋经理，同性恋和民主党人都应该被放逐到一个小岛上，然后被核弹炸死。当萨罗克的母亲和姐妹们担心其思想过激会走偏，强烈建议他去进行心理健康治疗，他愤怒地回绝了她们，并和自己的母亲说他恨她。萨罗克是一个典型的右翼极端分子的写照：思想激进，情绪激动，智商一般。俗话说愚人更容易办蠢事。萨罗克寄给美国CNN电视台总部的炸弹邮件的收信人写的是前美国中央情报局（CIA）局长约翰·布伦南（John Brennan）的名字。虽然布伦南曾以嘉宾的身份出现在CNN的节目中，但他实际上他根本不是CNN的员工。布伦南现在是 MSNBC新闻台的国家安全分析师。萨罗克似乎对自己攻击对象，CNN和MSNBC，的区别都分不清楚。寄给布伦南的“炸弹邮包”的信封上，短短几行字出现了多个拼写错误，甚至还拼错了布伦南的名字。寄给前美国中央情报局局长布伦南的信封上拼错了布伦南的名字，少写了一个n图片来源：CNN我在之前文章《黄亚生：为什么美国共和党人容易上当受骗？》中谈到，包括加州大学洛杉矶分校人类学教授丹尼尔·费斯勒（Daniel Fessler）在内的多个美国心理学和人类学教授已经研究证明，由于心理特征的不同，相比左翼自由派，右翼保守派更容易轻信虚假信息。根据 2015年的一项民意调查显示，54%的共和党选民认为当时的总统奥巴马是穆斯林。他们不仅容易相信假的政治信息，对于普通科学常识，他们也同样缺乏理解力。根据美国著名统计机构皮尤研究中心2014年的统计，只有43%的共和党人相信人类进化论。美国右翼民众同时还很容易被极端言论蛊惑。特朗普最常用的心理手段就是激发支持者的恐惧心理，让他们觉得自己受到威胁，这在心理学上被称为诉诸恐惧（fear appeals）。更为重要的是，通过激发公众的恐惧心理来获取民众支持对于保守派尤其有效。 2008年几名内布拉斯加大学学者发表在《科学》（Science）杂志上的一项研究显示，与自由派相比，保守派对恼人的噪音和图片有着更强的生理反应。2011年几名英国伦敦大学学院的科学家在《当代生物学》(Current Biology）杂志上发表了一项脑成像研究显示，那些在政治上倾向于右翼的人往往拥有更大的杏仁核——在恐惧和焦虑状态下，杏仁核是一种非常活跃的结构。以上两篇论文都表明，当面对具有威胁性的刺激时，右翼保守派的大脑有一种夸大的恐惧性反应。这些大脑反应是自动的，不受逻辑或推理的影响。只要特朗普继续散布恐惧信息，许多右翼保守派的大脑就会不由自主地活跃起来，就像被开关控制的灯泡一样。恐惧让特朗普的追随者总是热情高涨并且容易做出过激行为。特朗普的一个效应就是把恐惧和焦虑的心理问题高度政治化了。 根据《纽约时报》的报道，这次的连环“炸弹邮包”犯罪嫌疑人萨罗克的社交媒体账号直到2016年都显得比较正常，发布的内容晒自己的午餐健身房锻炼，性感美女和体育运动的照片。但自2016年开始，萨罗克的社交媒体账户呈现出黑暗的、更多政治相关的内容。他开设了一个新的社交帐户，开始发布耸人听闻的右翼新闻故事，加上诸如“希拉里破坏操纵整个选举”这类具有煽动性的标题，并转发一些反伊斯兰的标语和照片。当他上周五在佛罗里达州被捕时，萨罗克的社交账户完全符合大家对于极端分子的印象，最近几周，他甚至发布了他希望用炸弹炸死民主党政客的推文。 哥伦比亚大学数字新闻中心的研究主任乔纳森·奥尔布赖特（Jonathan Albright）说：“他从发布女性，房地产，餐饮和汽车的照片，到发布ISIS，枪支和暴力的照片。这是一个值得注意的变化。”结语我以后的一篇文章将提出共和党人和民主党人之间可以说已经没有任何共识，文明冲突在美国已经发生，而且在不断加剧。 美国其实就应该一分为二，变成两个国家。在这之前，美国早晚要出事。参考文献：[1] Karp, A. 2017. “Estimating Global Civilian-held Firearms number. ”Small Arms Survey.[2] Fessler, D., Pisor, A C., and Holbrook, C. 2017. “Political Orientation Predicts Credulity Regarding Putative Hazards.” Psychological Science, 28(5), 651–660.[3] Oxley, D R., Smith, K B., Alford, J R., Hibbing, M V. , Miller, J L. , Scalora, M., Hatemi, P K., and Hibbing, J R. 2008. “Political Attitudes Vary with Physiological Traits.” Science, 321 (19 September) 5896: 1667-1670.[4] Kanai, R., Feilden, T., Firth, C., and Rees, G. 2011. “Political Orientations Are Correlated with Brain Structure in Young Adults”. Current Biology, Apr 26; 21(8): 677–680. 文章选自亚生看G2，2018年10月31日
2018年11月6日 -
【中国留学生的四十年】之王俊峰：为中国律师赢得国际尊重
理事简介王俊峰，全球化智库（CCG）副主席、金杜律师事务所全球主席、中华全国律师协会会长。适逢中国改革开放40周年，美国格律文化传媒集团全媒体平台携手上海东方网，联合全球多家机构、留学组织和华文媒体，跨越十余个国家和地区，隆重推出“中国留学生的四十年”大型专题报道，记录40年留学潮中40位中国留学生的命运与故事、奋斗与荣光。以海外学人的心路，见证中国崛起；以中国留学生的视角，回望改革开放。今日刊发第十三期，王俊峰：为中国律师赢得国际尊重。1987年，北京，中国航天技术公司大楼，略显稚嫩的王俊峰坐在老同事身边，代表中国航空技术进出口公司（简称“中航技”），与德国公司就引进一项高新技术展开谈判。尽管只是做辅助性工作，王俊峰仍有些紧张。这是他第一次参与法律谈判。看着外国律师充满优越感的样子，从那时起，王俊峰就暗暗发誓，希望有一天能与外国的一流律师平起平坐。王俊峰的座右铭:人生更多的时候是一个人的精神上的旅行如今，作为金杜律师事务所的创始人，王俊峰打破了国际法律服务领域由外国律师垄断的局面，金杜也成为中国律师走向世界的一面旗帜；作为中华全国律师协会“掌门人”，在他的引领下，中国律师积极参与“走出去”战略，向国际化迈出了坚实的步伐。王俊峰肖像照01从未想过要成为律师1980年，王俊峰这个来自于吉林省长白山脚下一个小城的18岁小伙，考入吉林大学法学院， 那个时候，法律还属于冷门专业，王俊峰懵懵懂懂选择了法律，原因只是觉得它和社会、经济、政治联系会很紧密。他从未想过要成为律师，甚至压根不知道什么是律师。这与大环境有着密切关系，按照一些律师学者的描述，“此前20年是一个没有律师制度的空白时期”。“我们国家关于律师或者法律方面的这种小说也看不到，那个时候是《水浒传》、《三国演义》这类东西，还有《钢铁是怎样炼成的》。”王俊峰说。直到改革开放后，《律师暂行条例》出台，律师行业迅速复苏，王俊峰才惊讶地看到，授课的法学老师居然到法院辩护。尽管学了六年法律专业，但真正让他深入了解律师行业是在工作之后，当时已是法学硕士的他进入中国国际贸易促进委员会，在法律部做涉外法律服务工作，不但要研究晦涩的涉外法律，接触的也都是国际谈判这样的高端案件。1993年，司法部推动律师行业深化改革进程，首次提出允许和鼓励法律专业人士设立合作制律师事务所。也正是这一年，怀抱法治理想的王俊峰与贸促会的三名同事一起辞职下海，就在北京昆仑饭店的一个房间里，创建了金杜律师事务所。金杜律师事务所事务所成立了，门可罗雀。王俊峰和他的同事们靠每天打电话、发传真来扩大宣传，他们不放弃任何一单业务。渐渐地，事务所成长起来，他们终于不必为律所的生计担忧了。不过，王俊峰始终没忘记，创办律所的初衷是希望推动中国在国际和涉外方面法律服务的发展。所以，金杜一直主要面对国际方面的、涉外领域的法律服务。“土生土长”的金杜团队虽然在经验和国际化上略逊一筹，但也有着自身无可比拟的长处。凭借对中国政策法律法规的准确了解，金杜能够提供比外国人更加行之有效的法律建议，其优势也逐渐被客户所认可。02要参与国际竞争，就要到海外学习王俊峰意识到，要参与国际竞争，必须要到外国去考察和学习。1994年，王俊峰赴荷兰的律师事务所做访问律师，一边工作，一边学习律师事务所的运作理念。两年后，他又走访了英国，期间也去过美国，同两地同行进行交流。王俊峰留学毕业照王俊峰留学时期照片1998年，他再次回到英国，在剑桥大学做了一段时间访问学者，这段经历给了他一个很强的印象——要回到校园里去学习、感受或充电。之后，他申请去美国做访问学者，但当他得知访问学者不必上课之后，便改变了主意。于是，36岁的他开始正式申请去美国留学。次年，王俊峰正式展开“另类留学”生涯，进入加州大学伯克利法学院读书，并因业务和事务所管理的原因，连续多年往返于北京和旧金山之间。辛苦之余，他还做出了一个“大动作”。2001年，金杜在硅谷收购了一家当地的律师事务所，建立了美国的第一家分所，这也是当地第一家中国律师事务所。当时在接受媒体采访时，王俊峰曾表示，这是时代的馈赠，与中国国际化进程密不可分。比如在硅谷，出现了大量华人的高科技公司，也有越来越多的中国公司赴美投资。同时，美国人也迫切希望了解中国法律市场环境。而新成立的分所正是一座中美投资、密切往来的桥梁。如今再回望这段往事，王俊峰承认这曾带给他短暂的快乐，“就是中国人也可以在美国设办公室了。”但很快，他就意识到分所尚不具备能力在美国打阵地战，“因为我们的主战场还在中国，美国需要我们慢慢培养。”7年之后，纽约分所成立。但王俊峰的目标已与当时不同，随着中国加入世贸组织，国内市场进一步放开，国际市场也对中国敞开了大门。但反垄断、反倾销的问题随之而来，王俊峰希望运用法律保护企业和国家的利益。王俊峰坦言：“我从事法律服务到今天的一个使命就是希望让中国的律师事务所能跟他们（外国）平起平坐，我们应该有我们的尊严，应该相互尊重，但绝不要把任何一家国际一流的律师事务所当成不可逾越的目标，No！”2008年金杜与北京奥组委签约法律顾问王俊峰传递2008年奥运火炬正是怀抱着这种不服输的决心，从2002年起，整整6年，金杜律师事务所作为北京奥组委唯一的中国法律顾问，全程参与了与北京奥运会有关的全部法律事务。那是王俊峰所经历的最激烈的一次与外国同行的竞争。全球100多家律师事务所提交了项目建议书。但金杜凭借专业实力、团队优势最终胜出。03成就与中国法治建设密不可分如今金杜传奇正在全球27个城市上演，从几个合伙人、十几名员工到今日的几千名员工，王俊峰直言，这与中国改革开放、法治建设密不可分。工作中的王俊峰“国家法治的进步才能真正推动中国的律师事务所实现进步和突破，对于我们法律人来讲，推动国家的法治进步，既是期盼也是我们工作的方向。”他欣喜的看到，不断有年轻人加入到这个承受着巨大压力、长期处于压抑状态的辛苦行业里来。40年前，改革开放的总设计师邓小平曾说：中国搞现代化建设要有3个30万，即30万注册会计师、30万税务师、30万律师。2017年，中国律师人数首度突破30万大关。同时，“走出去”也成为中国律师事务所的发展主题。“我觉得对法律服务行业来讲，我们满眼看到的都是发展的机遇，因为中国经济的发展，中国不断融入国际社会的进程，以及中国企业走出去的机会非常多，所以我们对律师事务所的海外发展还是很有信心”， 王俊峰说。如今已很少单独接手案子的王俊峰把目光投向了培养年轻人。他已到知天命的年龄，童年有关文艺的梦想仍在，想静静读书好好写文章，但连任两届中华律师协会会长，让他自知不能偷懒，需要继续推动法律界发展。他认为，年轻律师们需要思考的仍是最初那个困扰他的问题——到底什么是法律职业精神。“当代律师的角色为什么比较尴尬，因为处在传统跟未来的冲突当中，既传统，又要突破传统，尽管社会上有一些妖魔化这个行业，律师永远都是被不同的角度去讽刺、挖苦、打击，但其实它是社会的一个基石。”“我是幸运的，”王俊峰说，如今他的目光早已不局限于律师行业的发展，而是关注整个社会，“律师从来都是参与社会进步的一股很特殊的力量，中国在展示了物质文明的同时一定要让全世界看到我们在法治文明方面所取得的成果，但这个挑战要更大，希望应该寄托在年轻一代的身上。”文章选自美国侨报，2018年9月5日
2018年11月6日 -
【China Daily】| Open for business
Landmark Shanghai import expo shows how China wants to buy what the world has to offerSigns promote the upcoming China International Import Expo in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, on Oct 11. Zhou Dongchao / For China DailyThousands of visitors and companies heading to ShanghaiSome 300,000 visitors are expected in Shanghai for the inaugural China International Import Expo, one of the major flagship events to be held in the country this year.More than 2,800 companies, including 200 Fortune Global 500 ones, from 130 countries will be taking part in the six-day event, which begins on Monday.The Shanghai expo, which will be held annually, is set to demonstrate clearly to an international audience that the nation’s economy is no longer purely the "Made in China" manufacturing powerhouse of recent years, but is now driven by consumers who want to buy what the world has to offer.Against a backdrop of increasing international trade tensions, it is also aimed at demonstrating that China is open for business as the country marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up.Sherri He, a partner at management consultants AT Kearney’s Shanghai office, said it is probably the biggest import-related event ever staged. The scale of the Shanghai expo is much greater than that of the Canton Fair, which has been held twice a year in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, since 1957."That would be a comparison point, but that (the Canton Fair) is for both imports and exports. This (the Shanghai expo) is probably the first-ever global import event," she said.The exhibitors include a wide range of companies, from those showcasing their expertise in high-end technologies such as industrial robots, machine tools, artificial intelligence and advanced healthcare, to those selling food and luxury consumer goods.More than 5,000 volunteers prepare to take part in the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, one of the major flagship events to be held in the country this year, attracting an estimated 300,000 visitors from around the world. [Photo/Xinhua]The main goal for some will be to get close to the Chinese middle-class consumer, whose growth in terms of numbers is set to be one of the global economic megatrends of the coming decades. According to global management consultants McKinsey& Co, the country’s middle class could increase to 630 million by 2022, almost double the current US population of 327 million.German carmaker BMW is among the high-profile exhibitors. It reconfirmed its commitment to the China market by announcing last month that it would pay 3.6 billion euros ($4.2 billion) to take majority control of its China joint venture with Brilliance China Automotive Holdings.BMW is taking advantage of new rules designed to open up China’s automotive sector to foreign players announced by President Xi Jinping at the Boao Forum in Hainan province in April.Jochen Goller, president and CEO of BMW Group Region China, said one of the expo’s aims is to highlight Chinese consumers’ need to upgrade, which he hopes his company can meet through its leading position in autonomous driving and electric cars."(This) greatly resonates with the core purpose of the CIIE. We believe the expo is a platform to demonstrate our long-term commitment as well as our confidence to grow with China," he said.However, exhibitors will be well aware that the Chinese consumer market, although potentially lucrative, is not an easy one to crack.Lot of experienceThe CIIE logo and mascot Jinbao are showcased in Shanghai. [Photo/VCG]Alina Ma, associate research director in Shanghai for market research company Mintel, said that simply being foreign is no longer such an attraction to Chinese consumers."This may have been the case 10 years ago, but no longer. Chinese consumers have now traveled abroad and have a lot of experience. They are particularly savvy when it comes to buying online," she said."They like to compare and contrast product features, and they often find that Chinese products offer what they need and are also value for money."Ma said the country’s consumers are also increasingly seeking products with Chinese heritage or value."This applies to younger consumers as much as older ones and poses another challenge for foreign companies."Mats Harborn, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, whose Shanghai chapter will release its position paper on the expo on Friday, said 60 percent of its members thought Chinese products were now equally or more innovative than their own."It is a signal I want companies to send back to their headquarters. They need to wake up and put their resources in China," he said.According to official data, China’s imports are now an important driver of the global economy, with the world’s second-largest economy being also the second-largest importer of goods for nine consecutive years, making up 10.2 percent of global imports last year.China’s imports of goods in 2017 rose to $1.74 trillion, up by 16 percent on the previous year, whereas its exports rose by 11.4 percent to more than $2.21 trillion.Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics for consultancy Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, said the rebalancing away from exports toward consumption and is one of the most important economic trends globally."Domestic demand in China continues to grow faster than in the rest of the world, which means imports are going to be increasingly pulled in by China," he said.Despite the rhetoric coming from US President Donald Trump’s administration about China’s trade surplus with his country, its surplus with the rest of the world is disappearing, Kuijs said. He forecast that the current account surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP last year will fall to just 0.1 percent this year and may soon even become a deficit."If it happens, it will be a milestone and a lot will be written about it. China already has a deficit with some economies and countries in Asia which are part of China’s Asian supply chain involving imports of large volumes of components. It also imports raw materials from countries like Australia. Increasing imports will mean that its current overall surplus will disappear."The expo is taking place as China marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up.Leon Wang, executive vice-president, international, and China president at AstraZeneca, the UK-headquartered pharmaceuticals multinational, which is an exhibitor in Shanghai, said, "At a time when China is celebrating its 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up, it is of greater significance for the country to host this international event in Shanghai."It shows not only the rise of China under this policy, but also presents a national image that it is open, inclusive and reciprocal."China is the company’s biggest market after the US, and Wang said rising incomes are leading the country’s middle class, in particular, to demand better healthcare."With higher economic growth and personal incomes, people are demanding more and better healthcare. The needs for precise, personalized and smart treatment with affordable and accessible healthcare services are increasing," he said."We have delved deep into the China market and increasing investment. (We are) focusing on therapy areas where Chinese patients have the most urgent demand," he said.The expo is also likely to illustrate how imports are important in driving the country’s industrial modernization and achieving goals, such as Made in China 2025, and becoming a global technology leader by 2035. It particularly wants to move ahead in advanced manufacturing, robotics and artificial intelligence.Denis Depoux, CEO for Greater China with management consultants Roland Berger, said advancing technology is generally a collaborative effort."Imports make sense from a multiple standpoint, but one of the most underlying is their role in the modernization of the Chinese industrial footprint in terms of technology transfers and in other respects."Depoux, who is also the consultancy’s deputy head for Asia, said China also needs imports to fill gaps in its technology deficits, despite its overall ambitious plans."You can decide overnight that you want to be a producer of aircraft engines or gas turbines, but from that moment to actually achieving it could have a lead time of 20 to 30 years. In the meantime, China, like many other nations, will keep importing these high-end products."Major opportunityPeople walk past signs for the China International Import Expo in Shanghai’s Lujiazui area. [Photo provided to China Daily]Mary Ma, general secretary in Shanghai for leading independent think tank the Center for China and Globalization, believes the expo can be compared with the Great Exhibition staged in London in the middle of the 19th century, and is a major opportunity for importers to showcase their products."Many have said it provides a ’six plus 365 opportunity’ - you exhibit at the show for six days and then you can sell online for 365 days. This is particularly the case with November 11 (Singles Day - China’s equivalent to Black Friday in the US - when online goods are heavily discounted) coming up," she said.Ma, who returned to China last year after working in Chicago for the International Trade Centre in Illinois on promoting exports to the country, said the purchasing power of younger people in China is something of a phenomenon."The one thing I noticed when I came back was the number of 20-to 30-year-olds in the shopping malls of Shanghai and Beijing. This is a huge market and I am not sure if the foreign brands do their best to reach it, particularly online."Joseph Healy, CEO at specialist lender Judo Capital in Melbourne, Australia, and author of Chinese Firms Going Global: Can They Succeed?, said the changing nature of China’s imports is beginning to have an effect on traditional resource exporters such as Australia."It used to be just an exporter of raw materials, but that is shifting. China’s growing middle class is a wonderful opportunity for Australia and New Zealand’s dairy products, wines and other products," he said."On a political level, however, Australia has been pathetic in terms of engaging with this opportunity and has come across at times as quite disrespectful."Depoux, at Roland Berger, believes the expo will be a major opportunity for some of the countries - along with the Belt and Road Initiative - who have not exported to China before."I am thinking, in particular, of Central Asia and agricultural exports, but this might also be an opportunity for some African and South American countries to try to establish a market position in China," he said.However, he insists that while this market has huge potential, it also has its unique challenges."It is a very complex, fragmented and very fast-moving market. It often changes so fast that by the time you are thinking about moving in, it has changed again."With trade tensions escalating, many expo participants hope the event will demonstrate the importance of open trade.Wang, at AstraZeneca, is confident that it will send an important signal."We greatly admire the foresight of the Chinese leadership in uniting the world ever more closely by hosting such an international event. China is an important engine for global economic growth and prosperity, and I am pleased the Chinese government supports globalization and free trade," he said.Wang Huiyao, president and founder of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), agrees that the expo is a major opportunity for companies worldwide."China wants to buy more. It doesn’t want a trade surplus. This event is very significant and represents a major shopping opportunity for the Chinese," he said.From China Daily，2018-11-2
2018年11月5日 -
Wang huiyao: Import expo marks new economic era
Signs promote the upcoming China International Import Expo in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, on Oct 11. Zhou Dongchao / For China DailyBy Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)CIIE affirms China’s embrace of trade as a positive force that can create benefits for workers and consumers in all countriesAll eyes will be on Shanghai this month for the first China International Import Expo, from Nov 5 to 10. With more than 2,800 companies from over 130 countries participating, it is set to be a truly global event that will boost trade connectivity and open new channels for cross-border cooperation.Announced by President Xi Jinping last year, the CIIE is part of China’s broader efforts to open up markets and facilitate the importing of more high-quality products to meet domestic demand. The event will give companies a chance to exhibit products and for countries to showcase goods through national pavilions. It also will provide a platform for exporters to learn more about China’s policies and markets and to conduct trade promotion, promising great benefits for foreign companies and Chinese consumers alike.For foreign companies yet to gain a foothold in China, the event offers a springboard into the domestic market by presenting goods to a broad audience and making connections with key industry players. For companies already established in China, the expo is a way to ensure continued expansion by introducing new brands, products and concepts to China, Asia and the world. For Chinese buyers and consumers, the expo will provide a unique channel to learn about diverse choices available from around the world.Moving forward, the CIIE is set to become an important annual fixture to promote trade between China and the world, linking overseas companies and producers with consumers in China and beyond.The CIIE is the latest in a succession of high-profile international events that China has launched over the years that mirror the phases of its economic development.In 1957, the Canton Fair was launched to promote the exporting of Chinese-made goods overseas. It continues to be the oldest and largest trade fair in China. In 1997, the China International Fair for Investment and Trade was launched in Xiamen, reflecting the emphasis put on attracting inward investment at that time.Four decades after the launch of the reform and opening-up policy, the import expo represents yet another landmark in the evolution of China’s economic development and shifting orientation, from exports to investment to imports.While China was once renowned as the "factory of the world", today the growth of China’s consumer spending and the evolving tastes of its middle class have become a major force fueling the global economy. This rise in consumer spending is an integral part of China’s ongoing development process, reflecting the shift away from an export-oriented, investment-driven growth model to one that is fueled by consumption.Consumption drove almost 80 percent of GDP growth in the first half of this year, and China is already the world’s second-largest importer, with $1.84 trillion (1.6 trillion euros; ￡1.4 trillion) worth of imports in 2017. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China is set to import products and services worth more than $10 trillion over the next five years, representing massive opportunities for foreign exporters. The upcoming expo is a good chance for China to further boost imports and domestic consumption, contributing to the ongoing transformation and restructuring of the Chinese economy.Naturally, foreign companies have been lining up to take advantage of this vast and growing market. However, they face a more challenging competitive landscape than in years gone by, when any foreign brand in China carried a certain amount of cachet. Increasingly, simply being foreign is no longer enough to appeal to China’s ever more discerning consumers.This is particularly so given the rise of a new generation of innovative domestic brands that have closed the quality gap with their foreign counterparts and in many cases surpassed them. These domestic brands are rapidly changing the image of "made in China", offering a range of quality goods tailored to local consumers, often through digitally driven retail and service models. In this more competitive environment, foreign companies must strengthen their understanding of China’s rapidly changing market and leverage core advantages if they are to win the hearts of Chinese consumers.It’s also a good opportunity for foreign brands to localize their businesses by cooperating with their Chinese partners or learning from their Chinese competitors. For Chinese companies, it’s a good chance to learn from multinational corporations and facilitate their outbound business expansion.As well as providing a practical platform to match foreign companies with market opportunities in China, the CIIE sends a strong message that China is open for business and committed to upholding globalization and free trade.This is particularly important at a time when the multilateral trading system is challenged and protectionism is on the rise. Unfortunately, China and the United States find themselves locked in a trade dispute that harms not only both countries but also the wider global economy. This situation has arisen in part from a misguided view of international trade as a zero-sum game, a perspective that fails to reflect the realities of the 21st-century global economy.By throwing open its doors to foreign exporters, the CIIE affirms China’s embrace of trade as a positive force that can create benefits for workers and consumers in all countries. Amid ongoing Sino-US trade friction, it is encouraging to see that nearly 180 US companies have signed up to participate in the CIIE, including leaders from a range of sectors including high-end manufacturing, intelligent equipment, home appliances, culture and sports. The CIIE provides a clear signal that China is willing to increase its imports and it’s an opportunity for the US business community to tap new market opportunities and forge deeper links with China.We do hope this expo will play a role in bridging the Sino-US gap and contribute to the solution that both China and the US are seeking to reach.In addition to industry leaders from developed markets, it is promising to see that the expo will feature many participants from developing countries, especially those with links to the Belt and Road Initiative, including more than 100 companies from over 30 African countries.For example, a dozen companies from Brazil’s coffee sector will feature gourmet lines at the expo, seeking to tap China’s growing thirst for coffee. Wineries from African countries, such as Morocco and South Africa, are also planning to use the expo to enter China and connect with its growing middle class. Preferential policies have also been implemented to help small and medium-sized enterprises from Africa participate in the expo. Once such companies establish trade flows to China, they can also use the country as a steppingstone to other Asian markets.By providing exposure for products and regions around the world, the CIIE offers a platform through which all countries can leverage their own strengths and deepen economic relations, contributing to domestic growth, increased trade and greater global prosperity.The CIIE can thus demonstrate that China would like to shoulder more responsibility to brace up the global economy, which is gloomy due to sluggish trade and investment circumstances. With the spirit of inclusive development and win-win, the expo will bring more opportunities not only for the companies but for world trade.About Author Dr. Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an independent think tank based in Beijing.From China Daily，2018-11-2
2018年11月5日 -
【China Daily】Wang huiyao: Import expo marks new economic era
Signs promote the upcoming China International Import Expo in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, on Oct 11. Zhou Dongchao / For China DailyBy Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)CIIE affirms China’s embrace of trade as a positive force that can create benefits for workers and consumers in all countriesAll eyes will be on Shanghai this month for the first China International Import Expo, from Nov 5 to 10. With more than 2,800 companies from over 130 countries participating, it is set to be a truly global event that will boost trade connectivity and open new channels for cross-border cooperation.Announced by President Xi Jinping last year, the CIIE is part of China’s broader efforts to open up markets and facilitate the importing of more high-quality products to meet domestic demand. The event will give companies a chance to exhibit products and for countries to showcase goods through national pavilions. It also will provide a platform for exporters to learn more about China’s policies and markets and to conduct trade promotion, promising great benefits for foreign companies and Chinese consumers alike.For foreign companies yet to gain a foothold in China, the event offers a springboard into the domestic market by presenting goods to a broad audience and making connections with key industry players. For companies already established in China, the expo is a way to ensure continued expansion by introducing new brands, products and concepts to China, Asia and the world. For Chinese buyers and consumers, the expo will provide a unique channel to learn about diverse choices available from around the world.Moving forward, the CIIE is set to become an important annual fixture to promote trade between China and the world, linking overseas companies and producers with consumers in China and beyond.The CIIE is the latest in a succession of high-profile international events that China has launched over the years that mirror the phases of its economic development.In 1957, the Canton Fair was launched to promote the exporting of Chinese-made goods overseas. It continues to be the oldest and largest trade fair in China. In 1997, the China International Fair for Investment and Trade was launched in Xiamen, reflecting the emphasis put on attracting inward investment at that time.Four decades after the launch of the reform and opening-up policy, the import expo represents yet another landmark in the evolution of China’s economic development and shifting orientation, from exports to investment to imports.While China was once renowned as the "factory of the world", today the growth of China’s consumer spending and the evolving tastes of its middle class have become a major force fueling the global economy. This rise in consumer spending is an integral part of China’s ongoing development process, reflecting the shift away from an export-oriented, investment-driven growth model to one that is fueled by consumption.Consumption drove almost 80 percent of GDP growth in the first half of this year, and China is already the world’s second-largest importer, with $1.84 trillion (1.6 trillion euros; ￡1.4 trillion) worth of imports in 2017. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China is set to import products and services worth more than $10 trillion over the next five years, representing massive opportunities for foreign exporters. The upcoming expo is a good chance for China to further boost imports and domestic consumption, contributing to the ongoing transformation and restructuring of the Chinese economy.Naturally, foreign companies have been lining up to take advantage of this vast and growing market. However, they face a more challenging competitive landscape than in years gone by, when any foreign brand in China carried a certain amount of cachet. Increasingly, simply being foreign is no longer enough to appeal to China’s ever more discerning consumers.This is particularly so given the rise of a new generation of innovative domestic brands that have closed the quality gap with their foreign counterparts and in many cases surpassed them. These domestic brands are rapidly changing the image of "made in China", offering a range of quality goods tailored to local consumers, often through digitally driven retail and service models. In this more competitive environment, foreign companies must strengthen their understanding of China’s rapidly changing market and leverage core advantages if they are to win the hearts of Chinese consumers.It’s also a good opportunity for foreign brands to localize their businesses by cooperating with their Chinese partners or learning from their Chinese competitors. For Chinese companies, it’s a good chance to learn from multinational corporations and facilitate their outbound business expansion.As well as providing a practical platform to match foreign companies with market opportunities in China, the CIIE sends a strong message that China is open for business and committed to upholding globalization and free trade.This is particularly important at a time when the multilateral trading system is challenged and protectionism is on the rise. Unfortunately, China and the United States find themselves locked in a trade dispute that harms not only both countries but also the wider global economy. This situation has arisen in part from a misguided view of international trade as a zero-sum game, a perspective that fails to reflect the realities of the 21st-century global economy.By throwing open its doors to foreign exporters, the CIIE affirms China’s embrace of trade as a positive force that can create benefits for workers and consumers in all countries. Amid ongoing Sino-US trade friction, it is encouraging to see that nearly 180 US companies have signed up to participate in the CIIE, including leaders from a range of sectors including high-end manufacturing, intelligent equipment, home appliances, culture and sports. The CIIE provides a clear signal that China is willing to increase its imports and it’s an opportunity for the US business community to tap new market opportunities and forge deeper links with China.We do hope this expo will play a role in bridging the Sino-US gap and contribute to the solution that both China and the US are seeking to reach.In addition to industry leaders from developed markets, it is promising to see that the expo will feature many participants from developing countries, especially those with links to the Belt and Road Initiative, including more than 100 companies from over 30 African countries.For example, a dozen companies from Brazil’s coffee sector will feature gourmet lines at the expo, seeking to tap China’s growing thirst for coffee. Wineries from African countries, such as Morocco and South Africa, are also planning to use the expo to enter China and connect with its growing middle class. Preferential policies have also been implemented to help small and medium-sized enterprises from Africa participate in the expo. Once such companies establish trade flows to China, they can also use the country as a steppingstone to other Asian markets.By providing exposure for products and regions around the world, the CIIE offers a platform through which all countries can leverage their own strengths and deepen economic relations, contributing to domestic growth, increased trade and greater global prosperity.The CIIE can thus demonstrate that China would like to shoulder more responsibility to brace up the global economy, which is gloomy due to sluggish trade and investment circumstances. With the spirit of inclusive development and win-win, the expo will bring more opportunities not only for the companies but for world trade.About Author Dr. Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an independent think tank based in Beijing.From China Daily，2018-11-2
2018年11月5日