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郑永年：中国应接过全球自由贸易大旗
专家简介郑永年，中国与全球化智库(CCG)学术专家委员会主任、新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长。 从杭州G20峰会到达沃斯论坛，中国已经开始在全球经济中扮演领头羊的角色，比如，“一带一路”建设、建立亚洲基础设施投资银行等，都是中国积极推动经济全球化的措施和表现。 作为全球第二大经济体，中国将如何通过结构性改革推动经济转型，在保持经济稳中求进的同时，如何推动兼具开放性和包容性的经济全球化，受到了国内外的广泛关注和期待。《经济日报》记者就此采访了新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长郑永年。 记者：从今年的《政府工作报告》可以看到，中国经济在过去一年里继续保持稳中求进的态势，从“降速”阶段逐步过渡到“提质”阶段，请问您如何看待当前中国经济形势？ 郑永年：我对中国经济是比较看好的。当前中国经济进入新常态，从高速增长到中高速增长，再过渡到发达经济体的低速增长，这是符合规律的自然下行。中国通过政府和市场“两只手”保持了经济增速的平稳下行，这在经济学上非常了不起。中国将2017年经济增长目标设为6.5%左右，还是比较谨慎的。因为当前世界经济还存在较大的不确定性，中国作为世界第二大经济体，同时也是世界上最大的贸易国，逆全球化趋势必然会产生影响。而中国正在以更加开放的态度来应对贸易保护主义，从杭州G20峰会到达沃斯论坛，中国已经开始在全球经济中扮演领头羊的角色，比如，“一带一路”建设、建立亚洲基础设施投资银行等，都是中国积极推动经济全球化的措施和表现。 记者：您长期关注中国经济结构性改革，请问您如何评价现阶段中国经济转型和改革进程，您认为中国通过结构性改革推动经济转型之路应该向何处去？ 郑永年：2008年以后，世界经济结构不平衡问题就显得较为突出，美国、欧洲和中国等主要经济体内部均存在不平衡问题，所以各主要经济体都在调整内部经济结构。从这几年的情况来看，中国的内部经济结构调整最快。2008年以后，各主要经济体出口一直受到影响，中国大部分的经济增长来自于内需，并且直至今日中国对世界经济增长贡献率一直是最大的。所以我认为，中国的经济结构调整是最迅速、也是最为有效的。在经济增速放缓的情况下调结构、去产能，最令人担忧的是就业问题，但目前来看就业情况还不错。在经历了1997年和2008年两次金融危机后，中国政府在运用政府和市场两种力量调节经济方面愈加得心应手。不过，中国也应该认识到，目前经济结构性改革中内需和外贸的结构虽然在变好，但有些地方还是失衡的，比如高端制造业和低端制造业的失衡，金融、房地产、网络经济与实体经济的失衡，这些都是在今后经济结构调整中需要重点关注的。 记者：最近有媒体报道中国在智利的邀请下,有望参加即将举行的TPP成员国会议，并认为中国应该扛起全球贸易自由化的大旗。您认为中国是否应该加入TPP，还是力推RCEP？ 郑永年：我认为中国应当接过自由贸易的大旗。西方对自由贸易热度下降，中国可以直接接过来，但并不是说全盘接收。中国还是应在考虑本国利益的同时，充分照顾其他发展中国家的利益。现在发展中国家占全球经济的比重很大，但发言权却很小，这非常不合理。同时，中国接受这套体系然后加以改革要比自己另起炉灶成本小得多。对于中国是否应该加入TPP，我认为中国需要慎重，应充分考虑其非经济因素。因为TPP最初就具有排他性，政治成分多于经济考量。TPP中很多条款对发展中国家是不利的。相比之下，RCEP则具有更大的开放性和包容性，也更符合中国和发展中国家的实际。文章选自中国经济网，2017年3月21日
2017年3月27日 -
郭盛：兼职成为就业新趋势
理事简介郭盛，中国与全球化智库（CCG）常务理事，智联招聘CEO。 近日,央视财经频道重磅推出120分钟特别节目——《中国经济生活大调查(2016-2017)数据发布之夜》,权威发布全球最大规模融媒体民生调查结果,用数据表达10万中国家庭的心声和心愿,呈现7亿中国网民的选择和态度。 中国经济生活大调查,是由中央电视台,国家统计局,中国邮政集团公司、北京大学国家发展研究院联合发起的,并联手国家权威机构、顶级智库,智联招聘在内的10大互联网大数据研究院,进行联合调查、联合分析、联合发布。活动现场,智联招聘CEO郭盛携手小米科技董事长雷军、格力总裁董明珠,财经作家吴晓波等人就中国职场人现状及发展,以及中国就业市场的新趋势等话题展开了热烈讨论。 智联招聘和大调查的联合调查发现,导致职场人换工作的主要原因分别是收入低、事业遇到瓶颈,上升空间受阻、想换个环境有新鲜感,行业不景气等。同时,针对很多职场人提出的选行业还是选企业这个问题,郭盛给出了自己的建议。他认为,选职业好过选企业,因为未来将有越来越多的企业“消失”,平台会不断崛起。同时随着共享经济,新兴职业的产生,雇佣关系不再与企业死死绑定,更多有技能的人可以在平台上实现就业,这便是为什么选职业好过选企业的重要原因。 那么在平台化的浪潮下,求职者应该怎样选择职业呢?目前来看,高薪职业基本上是两类,一类是管理类,另一类是IT技术类或律师等的专业类。不过快速变化的互联网时代每天也在诞生许多新的高薪职位,如有网感,会卖萌的新媒体运维“卖萌官”、爱晒,爱现,靠话唠赚钱的直播网红、爱吐槽,乐于出差的旅行体验师等。而且这些职位也给了每个人选择兴趣爱好赚钱的机会。另外,这些新兴职业大多都集中在某一平台上,这些平台产生的内容及价值是巨大的。 郭盛强调,在未来中国的就业市场上,兼职还有巨大的上升空间。根据此前美国劳工部公布的数据,美国的兼职人口占总人口比例为37%,而在中国这一数字仅为10%。另外,根据智联招聘全站大数据显示,在互联网/电子商务行业,过去一年兼职职位数量同比增长110%。郭盛认为,随着平台化,人工智能等要素的发展,兼职类工作占比将越来越大。那么,怎样去激发兼职工作者的创造热情,这是所有企业家们需要去深度思考的问题。最后,郭盛讲到,世界在快速变化,风口行业也在不断变化,希望每个职场人都能找到热爱的职业,并不断的锤炼技能,成为人才,才能任由风云变幻而闲庭信步。文章选自中国网，2017年3月15日
2017年3月27日 -
宗庆后：中以克服跨境差异 才能实现双赢
理事简介宗庆后,中国与全球化智库（CCG）副主席，杭州娃哈哈集团有限公司董事长。 中国经济网3月20日讯（记者 王婉莹） “中以双方要加强沟通，促进互相了解，克服障碍，实现双赢的合作。”同时要先解决“克服跨境差异”的问题。杭州娃哈哈集团有限公司董事长兼总经理宗庆后今日在以色列总理举办的经济论坛——“投资、创新和文化：如何克服跨境差异”上表示。 “中国近两年GDP增速比例有所下降，这很正常”，宗庆后表示，基数大了，增速的比例自然会下降，毕竟中国去年GDP总量已达到74万多亿，增量部分占了全世界的1/3以上。中国经济发展的潜力很大，现在中国有三亿中产阶级就导致了每年一亿多人次的出国旅游，到哪里就把哪里的商品抢购一空。“中国要实现全民小康，要全面提高老百姓的收入，如果还有十来亿人亦富起来了，会是什么样的内需？什么样的市场？”图片说明：娃哈哈集团有限公司董事长兼总经理宗庆后（左二）在以色列总理商业创新论坛上与嘉宾留影。 以色列坚持走科技强国之路，重视教育和人才的培养，是值得赞赏和敬佩的。以色列高新技术产业发展举世瞩目，在这一片贫瘠的土地上重建起了一个让百姓安居乐业的伟大的国家。 而“当今的中国政府是历朝历代最开明、最英明、最了解老百姓与老百姓贴心的政府。中国制定了工业制造2025、2030重大项目规划、智能制造发展规划，正在从制造业大国向制造业强国迈进，全面进行转型升级工作。我认为中国的经济会越来越好，以色列寻找与中国的合作是找准了对象，二个都会赚钱的民族结合在一起真可谓是天下无敌了。”宗庆后说。 但是，也要看到以色列与中国加强合作以来，本来对以色列有崇敬之情的中国人大量涌向以色列寻宝，结果却是有一部分人高兴而去，扫兴而归，没有谈成合作。所以，首先我们要研究“如何克服跨境差异”。 宗庆后认为，目前中以合作主要有以下三个方面的障碍。第一是部分以色列人看到中国人来，抬高转让价格，精明的中国人感到被敲竹杠；第二是以色列转让的项目很多是初创的，中国人希望要的是成熟的技术；三是以色列国家小、人口少，发展产业的机会也少，一般科技成果仅仅只是卖掉，而中国企业家要将科研成果转化为生产力，因为这样市场更大，发展产业盈利更高，如果可以上市，还会产生几十倍的市盈率，利润更高。 由于两国国情不同，可能对有些问题的看法亦不同，所以真正合作谈成有一定障碍。“我认为我们双方要加强沟通，促进互相了解，克服障碍，实现双赢的合作。”宗庆后这样说道。 宗庆后介绍，娃哈哈向浙江省杭州市政府争取创建一个国际科技创新小镇，争取了税收优惠政策、投资补贴政策、人才政策，准备吸引以色列的企业带技术与中国的企业合作发展产业。另外，娃哈哈准备对以色列的一些项目进行投资，同时亦在与佩雷斯中心进一步洽谈合作，希望能把中以合作这一双赢的好事做好，促进两国的经济共同发展。文章选自中国经济网，2017年3月20日
2017年3月27日 -
毛大庆：技术进步下或有更多东西被共享
理事简介毛大庆，中国与全球化智库（CCG）常务理事，优客工场创始人。 过去几天，房子又一跃成为热词，包括北京、广州等多地先后出台了一系列楼市调控措施。 3月20日，在出席某论坛时，前万科高级副总裁、优客工场创始人毛大庆再次谈及房子的话题。不过，他并未对当前房地产调控政策做过多评价，只是表示，看到很多人长嘘短叹，认为这辈子的幸福没有了房子无法追求。谈及一篇10万+爆款文章 “后来有一篇叫《房子不是最重要的，爱才是》的文章刷爆朋友圈，文章不但被10万+阅读，同时被新华社、人民日报等转发，引起热议。”毛大庆说道。 《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，这篇文章出自一位从事地产建筑工作的清华毕业生的个人公众号“小万工”，后经门户网站转发，一跃成为公共话题，作者认为有衣有食有相爱的人同住，就很知足，幸福与房子并无直接关系。但文章也引来不少讨伐和反对声。 “我跟这个女孩交流过，她住在哪儿呢？我们在北京创造了一个新的模式，把年轻人的居住、办公、网红IP运营集中在一个紧凑的建筑物里，这个女孩自己家有房子、有孩子、有老公，但她上班很远，于是她租了我们这个非常小的房子，有社群、有社交，活在她非常喜欢的生活方式里。”毛大庆说。 毛大庆坦言，从前在万科的时候，无论是经济危机要刺激房地产，还是房价过高要调控房地产，自己是屡被“拉进拉出”参与讨论的人。乃至六年多前万科海南公司找马佳佳做一场研讨会，当时马佳佳语出惊人，说我们90后不买房子，随即招来很多人谩骂。而到如今，这样一篇文章，大量追逐、赞赏的已经远比骂的人要多。 “我想，是这个社会变了，是对生活、对未来看法的改变，也是社会的进步，我相信这样的人会越来越多”。毛大庆认为，这是社会的消费价值观的改变，与整个社会主流对共享经济看法的改变。谈及共享经济，毛大庆说，滴滴、摩拜、知乎等多个共享平台不断涌现，但归结起来，不外乎是城市空间、居住资源、知识和出行的共享，未来在技术进步的推动下，或还会有更多东西被共享，只是目前我们仍然难以看到。强调共享经济重要性 根据普华永道的预计，2014年，全球共享经济的市场规模达到150亿美金，到2025年，这一数字将达到3350亿美金，年复合增长率达到36%。毛大庆称，根据罗兰贝格对中国的估算，2018年中国共享经济的规模将达到2300亿美金，那就意味着是1.5万亿的数字。 “当然它远不能跟房地产比，房地产2016年的销售额是13.3万亿，但是一个共享经济的门类已经慢慢可以介入到万亿级别水平里，这就代表着这些新生的力量在逐渐取代过去传统的发展模式。”毛大庆指出。 毛大庆表示，在共享经济的推动下，跨界、融合、互联、社群将会成为企业未来创新的主要方向，共享经济将会持续得到爆发。未来5-10年里，中国经济的主要推动力，除了新旧动能转换，从原来的资源消耗向科技创新转变之外，共享经济会成为新旧动能转换过程中非常重要的经济填充物，它会蔓延波及到我们熟知的任何一种原来传统的商业模式里。 毛大庆同时指出，当新一代年轻人成为市场主流之后，原来的功能性消费逐渐向精神性消费升级，但消费升级不是不让中国人去日本买马桶盖这么简单，更重要的是，要知道85后乃至90后这批人的消费需求到底是什么，如果不知道，今天所做的努力很快就会变成过时的产品。在这样的背景下，个性化、定制化、体验化将成为未来商业模式发展真正的主题。文章选自每日经济新闻，2017年3月22日
2017年3月27日 -
李成：中国GDP增速今年有望好于6.5%
李成，中国与全球化智库（CCG）学术专家委员会专家，美国布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任。 布鲁金斯学会是美国久负盛名的智库，李成是布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心百年来首位华裔主任，他的研究方向为中美关系和中国政治，其团队中云集了李侃如等学术政治明星。就刚刚发布的政府工作报告，李成接受21世纪经济报道记者的专访，谈了自己的看法。 《21世纪》：从2017年政府工作报告来看，今年李克强总理将GDP增长目标定在6.5%左右，并强调“在实际工作中争取更好结果”。这略低于去年定的“十三五”增长区间6.5%-7%，以及实际公布的2016年增速6.7%。你如何解读今年这个目标？ 李成：谨慎的数字会更好，而且为中国政府留有很多余地，情况好的话，（经济增速的）数字会更高一些。实际上，中国经济在很多方面有很多的起色，尤其在服务业方面，（占比）已经超过了51.5%，这是非常了不起的变化；同时中国的内需在增长，旅游业也在增长，这都是给人信心的表现。 如果内需更快地增长、服务业继续强劲，同时新近毕业的大学生的创新能够更有起色，最终（中国今年的经济增速）的结果要比6.5%好。 我们必须要对大环境有所了解，要对美国和欧盟未来可能产生的对中国经济的冲击做好准备。（美国宣称要对中国征收）45%的关税是完全没有道理的，也会损害美国的利益。同样，英国脱欧、德法选举这些方面有很多未知的因素，这会是中国政府制定经济政策一个考虑的范畴。 《21世纪》：从政府工作报告中所阐明的2017年重点工作任务来看，今年宏观经济调控的重点如何处理调结构和稳增长的关系？ 李成：这两方面是相辅相成的。“调”跟“稳”是一个问题的两个方面，不能只强调一个方面而忽视另外一个。当然中国经济的调整是一个长期的过程。现在要保持稳定，同时要保持一定的增长，就业和人口的压力会有所反应。在这种情况下呢，（政策）要不断地随着形势的变化而改变。 城市化进程越来越强，同时环境污染得到遏制的话，那么在这种情况下有增长和投资是可以预期的。但同时如果对环境保护的压力很大，还要加上防止地方债务的问题，防止房地产的泡沫，包括产能过剩的问题都是现实的问题，还有就是资金的外流，所以作为中国政府的金融领导人来讲，这些问题都会摆在他面前，要做些取舍，不是那么容易的事情。 同时，世界上也在发生不确定的事情，这不仅仅是中国的问题，同时也是全世界的问题，在这种情况下，要防止可能出现的一些“黑天鹅事件”事件，就变得越来越重要了。 《21世纪》：关于政府工作报告中提到的国有企业改革措施，您有怎样的分析？ 李成：政府工作报告当中第一次用到了“僵尸企业”这一个概念，这在西方也是新的。这也是意味着中国政府解决僵尸企业的问题，这是与国有企业改革相关的。国有企业改革不是说把所有企业的都私有化，而是说把某些国有企业做强做大，另外一些企业可以进行很多结构性的调整，尤其是僵尸企业，要通过《破产法》或其他的机制来改变目前的状况。实际上讲，这也是给私有企业更多的机会和公平的竞争环境。 《21世纪》：李克强总理也提到，在“逆全球化思潮”和“保护主义倾向”下，中国“坚持推进国际贸易和投资自由化便利化”。中国可以在哪些方面为全球化做出贡献？ 李成：中国已经在做很多的贡献，包括“一带一路”和亚投行。当然，某些西方国家有些疑问，尤其是美国，但是欧盟、澳大利亚非常热衷于这个变化，更不用说中国的邻国，而且强调基础设施是对的。 美国总统特朗普也在重新制定美国的经济政策，例如减税、将制造业带回美国、重整基础设施，以改变美国的不利状况，但是基建投资离不开劳动力和财力，迟早需要国际合作，需要中国。这也是美中关系值得注意的方面。只有通过合作，才能双赢。美国关起门来做是不行的。所以，他最终一定会调整政策，和中国合作。 《21世纪》：所以美国的门是关不起来的？ 李成：我觉得关不起来。文章选自21世纪经济报道，2017年3月11日
2017年3月27日 -
【腾讯视频】聚焦全球化：中国日报外籍记者对话世界经济大佬
3月18日至20日,由国务院发展研究中心主办的2017年中国发展高层论坛在北京召开。中国领导与全球顶尖的CEO、思想家、学者和意见领袖汇聚一堂，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克、美国前财政部长亨利·保尔森、诺贝尔奖获得者（约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨、阿马蒂亚·森等）受邀参加本次论坛。他们就全球面临的挑战进行探讨，话题涉及世界经济的不确定性、特朗普时代的中美关系、中国的供给侧改革、人类如何应对机器人时代的全面到来等。 中国日报社外籍记者安德鲁·穆迪（Andrew Moody）就与我们生活息息相关的话题，与世界大佬们对话。文章选自腾讯视频，2017年3月21日
2017年3月27日 -
【China Daily】Way ahead
As globalization debate rages, eminent economists at top China forum offer a few pointersChina will deal with financial imbalances in its economy and press ahead with supply-side structural reforms, says He Lifeng, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission.He, who heads the agency responsible for macro-economic management, was addressing the 18th China Development Forum in Beijing, which brings some of the world’s leading experts across a range of fields into contact with China’s leaders.The minister was particularly concerned about money flooding into the property sector and creating asset bubbles. Prices in some major cities, including Beijing, have risen by more than 25 percent over the past year.Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli delivers a speech on March 18 at the opening session of the three-day China Development Forum in Beijing. Feng Yongbin / China Daily"The excessive capital has resulted in surging housing prices in some key cities and pushed up the costs of the real economy," he said.He also said supply-side reforms were vital and there was a need to cut excess industrial capacity and dispose of loss making "zombie" enterprises if these were to be effective.The forum, sometimes described as the Chinese Davos and which was inaugurated in 2000, again attracted some of the world’s leading thinkers, particularly in economics, with a number of Nobel Prize winners in attendance, as well as chief executive officers of Fortune 500 companies, politicians and academics.Key speakers included Henry Paulson, the US Treasury secretary at the onset of the global financial crisis and author of Dealing With China, and Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.Topics included the state of the global economy as well as China’s own, China-US relations, supply-side structural reforms, income inequality, innovation and work in the age of robots.The future of globalization with the election of a protectionist and isolationist US president was one of the key areas of concern.With President Xi Jinping delivering a landmark speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, China is now seen as a key defender of globalization.Stephen Roach, senior fellow at the Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, said Xi was making the speech a normal US president would make."We don’t have a normal US president at present. We have an anti-globalization president. Donald Trump is all about America first. He is not in favor of the multilateral structures that weave the fabric of globalization," he said.Roach, also former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said protectionism should be resisted because it would ultimately be bad for the global economy."Should we defend globalization? The answer is yes, but the question is how. What are the consequences if we get the answer wrong?"The lessons of history - the demise of the first wave of globalization from World War I to World War II - suggest that if we answer the question poorly there are grave and lasting consequences for the whole world."Wang Huiyao, the president of the Center for China and Globalization, China’s largest independent think tank (2nd L).Wang Huiyao, president and founder of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG）, a leading independent think tank and a counselor to China’s State Council, agrees that globalization is now under attack."We see when Donald Trump came to office he actually said he preferred bilateralism to globalization," he said."He wants to renegotiate the WTO or NAFTA (the North America Free Trade Arrangement) and actually said he wanted to impose tariffs on China. If every country in the world puts its own country’s interests first and abandons the multilateral mechanisms for trade, it would mean globalization is under serious threat."Joseph Stiglitz, professor of economics at Columbia University. Photos by Liu Hao and Yuan Qingpan / China DailyJoseph Stiglitz, professor of economics at Columbia University and one of the more high-profile figures at the forum, said there were, however, issues with globalization as it currently operates.The Nobel Prize winner said that globalization was under threat from populist movements because it wasn’t delivering for people."Globalization arrangements were designed more for corporate interests than the ordinary workers," he said."So, for example, drug prices would go up. That was not the interest of ordinary individuals. That was in the interest of the drug companies that don’t create jobs, don’t pay taxes and only make political contributions to get what they want."Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University and a former chief economist at the World Bank, said the data showed that blue-collar workers in developed countries have been losers in globalization.He said wages as a share of GDP have been on the decline since 1980 in developed countries and even in China since 1995."Since the demand for labor is going down compared with the demand for machinery and other technology, workers are not sharing in the prosperity of the world," he said. "That is why there is a rise in populism."But what Trump advocates is not the right policy response to it," he said. "We have to respond to this populist angst with the right kind of policy intervention."Edmund Phelps, director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University who is also a Nobel Prize winner for economics, said he is highly concerned with the loss of jobs and slow growth of wages in the United States."The world of work is under threat and something has to be done to restore positive attitudes about the possibilities of this world and people having meaningful careers and contributing to society," he said."Some think that a job is simply a paycheck and do not understand that a job is a huge chunk of someone’s life and what someone does in their job is very central to their personal and intellectual development."Phelps, author of Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change, said that there has to be a long-term rethink of the concept of work."People think that if someone doesn’t have work, then it is just fine and all you need to do is throw some money at them. This is crazy."Where now for the global economy? That was a leading topic for discussion at the forum. Nine years after the global financial crisis, growth in many parts of the world remains anemic. The World Bank cut its forecast in January for global growth this year to 2.7 percent, down from its previous 2.8 percent prediction.Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, said it was important not to get too depressed about the state of the global economy, contrasting now to when he was a key figure in the Clinton administration."People around the world are richer. They are living longer, more people are literate, and mortality rates are down In many, many ways the world is a better place than it was 15 years ago and my expectation is that this progress will continue," he said Way aheadSummers, now the Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University, said many countries had already moved on from the global financial crisis."It has been in the rear-view mirror for some time as far as much of the world is concerned. There are particular strains within the euro system. The real challenge is finding ways to impart significant energy, particularly in the context of the American economy, where secular stagnation has been a problem."Stiglitz said Europe remains the major problem with the debt situation in Greece and Italy, in particular, making global financial markets nervous and contributing to economic uncertainty."Many (European) countries have lower GDP than before the crisis and for many countries, the downturn is much worse than the Great Depression. Unemployment is unacceptably high and youth unemployment in countries like Spain and Greece is as high as 50 percent."There was less concern about the Chinese economy at the forum. Premier Li Keqiang set a target for GDP growth in China of about 6.5 percent when he delivered the Government Work Report on March 5.Jose Vinals, chairman of Standard Chartered, the UK bank with major operations in Asia, said the target was a sensible one for China since it allowed leeway for reform."Accepting lower growth in the short term, but rebalancing the economy with a better policy mix such as less expansionary monetary policy and more expansionary fiscal policy will lead to China having more sustainable growth prospects," he said.Roach at the Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs said fears about China had at least eased in the short term."There is less near-term anxiety. The big challenge for China is completing the structural reform agenda that began five years ago, which means rebalancing the economy from manufacturing to services and from exports and investment to private consumption," he said."There has been good progress made in some areas and very limited and disappointing progress in many others. That is a long-term rebalancing that must continue if China is to be strong at home and strong globally."Summers, however, is optimistic the China economy will make the transition whatever the short-term difficulties."China has grown at a remarkable rate and I don’t think that rate is going to be ultimately sustainable. China has some substantial imbalances building up, particularly the accumulation of debt," he said."I am sure the path will not be exactly smooth, but I am also very confident there is good reason to expect Chinese living standards a generation from now will be very substantially higher than they are right now."How to propel supply-side structural reforms in China was the subject of a panel discussion at the forum.Michael Spence, professor of economics at the Stern School of New York University, said achieving success in this area was vital for the China economy."In the longer term if it doesn’t happen, growth will stop," he said."Productivity growth, deepening the capital base of the economy, making it structurally more flexible and doing all the things you need to do to support innovation - all these are tremendously important. While making these reforms, it is important not to forget the demand side of the economy, which in China’s case is important because of the need for consumption," he said.Spence, also a Nobel economist, added that the supply-side reforms are different from those undertaken by the US under Ronald Reagan and in the UK by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s."If you look at America, there was a macroeconomic management problem. There was inflation but it wasn’t about market dynamism as it is in China. In the UK, Thatcher had to sideline a bunch of fairly obstructive unions to free the labor market and generally make the economy more flexible."Urbanization was another theme of the forum, since increasing standards of living are dependent on more people living in cities.China has had more people living in cities than in rural areas since 2011 when the 50 percent urbanization rate was surpassed.Now 56 percent of China’s population live in cities, and one of the key policy aims of the current Five-Year Plan (2016-20) is to encourage more people to move to urban areas through hukou or house registration system reform.High-income developed countries all have high urbanization rates, with that of the US being 82.4 percent, the UK 79.6 percent, France 85.8 percent and Germany 73.9 percent. Some of the lowest urbanization rates are in Africa, such as in Burundi where only 12 percent of the population live in citiesPaul Romer, chief economist of the World Bank, said urbanization was vital to making people wealthier around the world."China has done a good job on this but it needs to do more. Many countries around the world, have room to bring more people into urban areas. So we need a more inclusive urbanization policy that welcomes everyone that wants to come to cities," he said."You have to say to people that you have a chance to pursue that, if you would like."A number of executives of leading companies who attended the forum remained bullish about the China market despite slowing growth.Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple, said it was vital for his company to build a long-term relationship with the world’s second-largest economy.The California-based giant plans to add to its existing bases in Beijing and Shenzhen with two more research and development centers in Shanghai and Suzhou."Look at the talent in China - it is just amazing," he told the forum."We want to broaden our cooperation with China in a deeper way."Roland Berger, the founder and honorary chairman of the global management consultancy of the same name, said China represented a huge opportunity for global business generally."China will be the largest and strongest economy in the world in less than 20 years from now. It is a huge local market with 1.4 billion people speaking the same language. That is more than double the 700 million or so English speakers globally," he said."Although many Chinese businesses have been successful in overseas markets, the debate should be more about foreign companies coming here. We are now seeing a huge number of companies now coming to China, including younger startups, for the opportunities there are here."For now, however, one of the biggest global risks remains China-US economic relations.Former Treasury secretary Summers, who is also a former chief economist of the World Bank, said the actual relationship might be better than some expect."Certainly much of the rhetoric has not been that which I would have chosen or would choose to use when I was in office, but I think ultimately it is going to be the actions that are taken that are going to be more important than what has been said so far," he said.From China Daily，2017-3-24
2017年3月27日