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【China Daily】MEGACITIES ENTICE TALENT, BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH?
Second-tier locations drawing away some of best and brightestHao Zhongxiu and his wife, both information technology engineers in Beijing, are used to the lengthy workplace discussions that inevitably follow any change to the capital’s household registration policy.The participants may change, as people come and go, but for those from other parts of China, the central question remains the same: Does this mean I can now get permanent residency in Beijing?Household registration certificates, known as hukou, give nonnative residents access to the same social benefits as locals, including health insurance, and enable their children to attend local public schools. In effect, they radically reduce the cost of living in the capital.Hao, who works for social network Sina Weibo, said the discussions among his colleagues about residency are more frequent than ever since the release of three documents related to Beijing’s hukou policy in the past two months as the city steps up efforts to attract and retain high-end talent."The government’s restrictions on hukou applications have been kind of loosened as the competition for talent escalates nationwide. It’s a good sign," said the 28-year-old, who moved to the capital in 2012 after graduating from a university in his native Inner Mongolia autonomous region.However, despite Hao’s optimism, recruitment industry insiders say the recent moves by Beijing and Shanghai to respond to the growing demand for well-educated, highly skilled employees - fueled by China’s move toward an innovation-driven economy - may have come too late.The country’s best and brightest are already considering other regions, insiders say, largely due to the high threshold for applying for hukou in megacities and the incentives being offered by smaller cities.Domino effectIn March, Beijing launched a pilot program to offer hukou to the talent the capital needs, such as people in senior positions at high-tech or innovative enterprises. The capital also launched a point-based application system on April 16, with candidates graded on factors including education and entrepreneurial ability.Meanwhile, Shanghai published a document in late March targeting top talent in 13 sectors, including artificial intelligence and quantum science.Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), an independent Chinese think tank, said the two cities drafted the policies to address the fact more top-level workers are heading to second-tier cities, which have also introduced preferential policies like removing hukou application thresholds or providing accommodation subsidies.Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, announced a plan in February last year to attract 1 million graduates over the next five years. This resulted in a domino effect, with dozens of cities following suit with enticing policies."Previously, many talented people chose to work in Beijing and Shanghai because they wouldn’t be able to get hukou in a second-tier city either. But with the fast development of second-tier cities and their lifting of hukou restrictions, we’ve seen talent flowing out of first-tier cities," Wang said.Last year, the number of people who left Beijing surpassed those arriving, and many of those who left had the kind of talent the capital needs, he said.With China shifting to an innovation-driven economic mode, "local governments have realized the importance of talent," Wang added.Chen Yu, vice-president of the China Association of Employment Promotion, said the country has lost its demographic dividend due to an aging population, while many workers with repetitive tasks have been replaced by machines. The competition for talent is inevitable as the country turns to the "talent dividend" for development, he said.Welcome moveChinese search engine Sogou, which is headquartered in Beijing, has welcomed the capital’s talent drive."As a science and technology enterprise, we are encouraged," the company said in a statement, adding that the hukou system has long been a restrictive factor that has left science and technology companies at a disadvantage when hiring technical personnel."Some companies have had no choice but to base research institutes in other cities to attract talent," according to the statement, which praised Beijing’s efforts to lower the threshold as timely and necessary.Zhao Rui, a senior consultant at Leadership Consulting, said the capital’s policy change is good news for her company, too, as it mainly serves enterprises in the high-tech sector. Many high-end Chinese workers want to know upfront whether a prospective employer can help them get work and residency permits before taking an offer, so a good hukou policy is crucial, she said. "Beijing and Shanghai will continue to attract highly sophisticated technical personnel," she added, "while second-tier cities will attract well-educated hardworking young people in the internet and e-commerce sectors."However, some headhunters have said they doubt the policies of Beijing and Shanghai will be effective in attracting high-end talent because they still set high thresholds.According to Beijing’s document in March, those with important positions at high-tech enterprises as well as those working at the headquarters of innovative enterprises and at new-type research and development institutions in Beijing are now eligible to apply for hukou. So, too, are those with an annual taxed salary at least six times of the average in the capital.Yet many who fall into these groups are probably in a position to have green cards in developed countries and have little interest in obtaining Beijing hukou, said Guo Tao, CEO of Connected-R International, a Shanghai-based headhunting company. Meanwhile, he added, people in the middle-income range - many of whom desire hukou to send their children to public schools - do not qualify."A big proportion of the talent in the IT sector prefer Hangzhou over Beijing based on our experience," Guo said in an earlier interview. "Beijing has been making efforts to introduce talent from the United States and Europe, but I believe it’s neglected the domestic talent a bit compared with other Chinese cities."Hu Xin, founder of Soft-Power Headhunting, based in Beijing, said a relatively small number of midlevel talent are leaving first-tier cities in favor of smaller cities where they see better development opportunities, perhaps closer to their hometowns. Like Guo, she cited Hangzhou as a draw for those working in e-commerce."First-tier cities used to have an edge because of their access to information. But with the development of transportation and communication, information has become increasingly transparent. The gap between first-and second-tier cities in information access has narrowed," she said, adding that talent can now be successful in smaller cities using the same business modes as in the major metropolises.Zhao Meng, who works in Beijing for British recruitment firm Michael Page, said the capital’s new initiatives may be more beneficial for international companies than domestic private enterprises.China’s private companies often avoid tax by not accurately declaring their employees’ salaries, therefore workers who actually make the grade in terms of salary may not be eligible for hukou because their company’s records do not reflect their real situation, according to Zhao, who added that this is not the case with international companies.Hao at Sina Weibo said he has seen many of his friends, mostly IT engineers, leave the capital, primarily due to the pressure that mounts after having children, as they seek access to public schools without a local hukou. However, he and his wife plan to stay."As people from northern China, we want to stay in the north, and Beijing is one of the best options," said Hao. "And, one day, it’s possible the policy may be loosened even further so that we may be lucky enough to be beneficiaries."From China Daily，2018-5-2
2018年5月3日 -
梁建章：少子化杀死创新力
理事简介梁建章，全球化智库（CCG）副主席、携程联合创始人、执行董事局主席。最近一段时间的中兴华为风波，给了中国上下一记响亮的警醒：自主创新才是硬道理。那么，究竟如何做才能促进创新呢？对于这一堪称经济学学科圣杯的问题，携程旅行网创始人兼董事局主席梁建章在自己的新书中，从劳动经济学的角度，为国家和社会提供了一条新的思路——丰沛的年轻人口才是驱动创新的最大源动力。对于这一观点，梁建章在其新书中甚至有着更为坚决强硬的表达——“人口，才是决定创新能够获得成功的根本因素，具有任何其他因素都不能取代的地位。”4月23日，梁建章与另一名人口专家黄文政合著的新书《人口创新力》在北京正式发布，图为梁建章在发布会上发表演讲人口剧变在梁建章看来，过去100年里，人类社会发生变化最大的领域之一就是人口。一方面，今天的人们寿命更长——在过去的200年中，发达经济体的人均寿命从40岁增加到了80岁，并且还在不断延长；另一方面，人类的家庭规模急剧变小，生育率持续下滑——世界平均总和生育率（每个妇女平均生育的子女数量）已经从20世纪50年代的4.9，下降到21世纪最初10年的2.5左右。在生育率持续下滑的过程中，无论是发达经济体，新兴经济体还是其他发展中国家，总和生育率都已经低于或者很快就要低于更替生育率。更替生育率是指，为了让每一代人的规模大致相仿，每名妇女平均需要生育2.1个孩子（数字略超过2是因为有少数儿童可能会在成年以前死亡）。具体到眼下的中国，由于男女比例在一定程度上的失调，更替生育率还会更高一些。最早受到人口剧变影响的国家是日本。在过去的40年里，日本的生育率一直低于更替水平，当前保持在1.4左右。从2005年开始，日本成为人口出现自然负增长的国家。在中国，自20世纪90年代以来，生育率已经下降到更替水平以下，现在只有1.3。根据统计和预测，在接下来的短短20年里，中国就会出现人口的负增长和急速的老龄化。与此同时，印度将取代中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。但即便如此，印度的生育率也已经从1970年的5.49下降到2013年的2.48。或许统计数据能够更直观地说明问题。1.5的生育率意味着每一代都将比上一代人减少25%；在只有最不发达国家和非洲保持高生育率的情况下，到2100年，非洲人口将占世界人口的40%；.妇女受教育程度和劳动参与度更低的伊斯兰文明国家在2010年到2050年间，人口会增长70%，到21世纪末，穆斯林人口将会和基督教人口一样多；2050年时，中国国民的平均年龄将达到46岁，比现在的平均年龄大9岁，中国的老年抚养比（65岁以上人口与16至64岁劳动人口之比）将超过40%，是当前中国这一数值的三倍多。全球范围内生育率的整体下降有着许多原因，比如妇女受教育水平的提高和劳动参与率的增加，抚养孩子的成本上升，老年人对子女赡养的需求降低，现代避孕措施的普及以及现代生活方式（娱乐和工作）挤压了养育孩子的时间等。但比现象和原因更重要的是它的结果和影响。在新的人口形势下，现代社会出现一系列前所未有的社会问题，比如劳动力短缺、老龄化以及经济活力下降等。而梁建章等人认为，这一系列问题中最根本，也最不可弥补的一个弊端，就是生育率下降会导致整个社会创业精神和创新活力的减弱。少子化杀死创新力200多年前，亚当•斯密发现专业化和贸易是提高经济效率的主要因素；100多年前，经济学家约瑟夫•熊彼特认为创新和创业是经济长期增长的主要驱动力。而如今，在政府和政策的引导之下，其他一些对于促进经济增长，实现国家富裕有着重要作用的因素，正在中等以上收入国家内一一实现，比如稳定的政府、产权保护、良好的基础设施、健全的金融体系和贸易开放。只有创新能力，成为横亘于中等收入国家通往高收入国家道路上的最大阻碍。梁建章等人通过对各种测量创新能力方法的考察发现，进入工业社会以来，全球创新的速度是稳定和略微加速的，但创新难度却越来越大，这是因为，人类的知识就像一个巨人，正在变得越来越大，使得后来者更难以站在巨人的肩膀上。因此，发明家的平均年龄越来越大，跨学科的合作也在创新中变得越来越重要。 但从人的身体条件来看，二三十岁是身体最健壮、精力最旺盛、感知能力最强的阶段，所以无论从理论还是经验角度，都能得出“需要艰苦工作和冒险行为的颠覆性创新活动更适合年轻人”这一结论。将上述两个因素叠加可以发现，开展颠覆性创新和创业活动的黄金窗口期正在变得越来越短。那么，影响创新的最主要因素是什么呢？梁建章认为是人口。著名经济学家迈克尔•波特将自己的企业战略成功五要素应用于国家战略，认为一个国家的产业要想成功需要具备四个要素：禀赋、需求、零部件产业以及竞争。在梁建章看来，上述四要素实际上都与人口有关。人口众多意味着庞大的人才储备库和规模巨大的本地市场，即禀赋要素和需求要素；巨大的市场也可以催生更加发达和完整的零部件产业；此外，众多的人口和庞大的市场科以培育更多的竞争者。因此，大量人口似乎是进行创新活动的最重要优势来源。对于人口如何影响创新，梁建章提出了三种渠道：规模效应、聚集效应、老龄化效应。规模效应是指，作为专业化和劳动分工的结果，生产100万件商品的单位成本会远低于生产1000件商品的单位成本，所以，当一个市场非常庞大时，会非常有利于产业和经济的发展。此外，就算在全球化背景下，企业往往也只能在本地取得成功后，才会拥有开拓全球市场的能力。以中美为例，通常情况下，当美国创新者来到中国市场时，往往已经错过了最好的时机，因为依托庞大的本土市场，此时中国企业已经成长为强大的领先者。一位杰出的风险投资家曾这样评论：“一家美国互联网企业要想在中国取得成功，它必须要在进入美国市场的同时登陆中国市场。然而，对于一家初创企业来说，试图同时占领中国和美国的市场往往时一项非常艰巨的任务。”就算在全球化的今天，国与国之间的市场门槛依然存在，但在一个经济体内部，人员的流动性就要好太多了。这就是梁建章提出的人口对创新起作用的另一条路径，聚集效应。据梁建章观察，更具创新力的高新技术企业分布比制造业更加不平衡，比如在美国，大量的创新公司都集中在硅谷。而与传统制造业不同，高新技术产业的集聚效应不是相关企业相互靠近的结果，而是创新人才聚集的结果。在梁建章看来，当有创造力的人聚在一起时，这种效应可以产生出化学反应，“在硅谷的夜晚，餐馆和咖啡厅里坐满了身穿休闲装的工程师，他们讨论着下一次的技术突破和创业机会。”所以，这就是大城市和产业集聚存在的意义——大城市不仅可以使人才与企业更好地匹配，而且可以提供更多拥有不同学科背景的人才一起工作的机会。而且，集聚效应使一种人才的网络马太效应。如果一个区域称为一个产业的创新中心，那么这一中心的集聚效应将会趋于自我强化。随着时间的推移，这一中心会越来越大，优势也越来月明显。梁建章认为，东京容纳了日本三分之一的人口（超过3700万），但非常高效的公共交通系统并未使其出现严重的交通拥堵，良好的城市规划也可以解决环境污染、资源消耗等所谓的“城市病”。所以，如今均拥有2300万人口的北京和上海，作为人口大国的创新中心，居民规模还是太小了。除了规模效应和聚集效应，梁建章在书里提到的另外一种人口影响创新的方式则更有意思。正如传统大公司通常因为是现状的利益既得者所以很难有颠覆性创新，企业中的老年人也会对创新产生阻挡效应。一个员工获得高级和有影响力职位的概率，取决于相关领域内的劳动力年龄结构。如果公司员工的平均年龄很高，那么年轻员工就不太可能被赋予更多的管理责任，因为高级职位已经被年长的员工占据了。同理，在一个国家中，人口的年龄结构可能成为影响创业的重要因素。整体结构趋于年轻的社会，为年轻人提供了更多机会来获得创业所必需的技能；但在老龄化社会中，年轻人的晋升机会被老年人挡住了。在老龄化社会中，年轻的劳动者在组织中占有较低层级的职位，他们所拥有的社会话语权和政治权利较少，掌握的劳动技能较低，可以支配的经济资源也有限。所以说，伴随着年轻人数量的减少，创新精神和创业活力都会遭到削弱。目前可以看到的国家中，日本是个最典型的例子。总体而言，日本的创新表现并不差，日本大公司在研发方面投入巨资，获得很多专利；但这些发明打多是微创新，而不是颠覆性发明。例如，日本公司不断改进数码相机，使其体积更小、质量更好，而且具有更多功能。但是，日本人没有能够产生颠覆性的发明，比如iPhone。但事实上，日本公司并非一直都是这种表现。20世纪70年代和80年代时，日本企业非常具有创造力，并产生了诸多革命性的发明，比如随身听、数码相机和游戏机控制台。就算是遭遇金融危机和美国挤压，但历史上没有任何一次金融危机的持续时间超过10年，日本与美国之间的贸易至今也维持着大额顺差。随着日本经济停滞已经超过25年，今天，已经有越来越多的经济学家意识到，真正导致日本经济增长停滞的罪魁祸首，是人口的老龄化和创业精神的缺失。中国人可以多生！作为携程董事局主席，梁建章自2006年赴美攻读经济学博士后，便将更多的精力放在了学术研究上，不仅在世界顶级学术期刊上发表过多篇关于人口、创新、创业和劳动生产力等主题的劳动经济学论文，而且在各大媒体上频频发声，身体力行推动国家政策和人们观念的转变。此前梁建章另一本名为《中国人可以多生！》的书，更是当时中国内地公开出版的直接指出独生子女政策存在不合理的第一本书。对于鼓励生育，梁建章从来就不乏抓人眼球的观点和表述。比如，他提倡女儿跟妈妈姓，淡化只有男性才能传宗接代的世俗观念；他称颂女性能力，认为女性一旦走到企业顶层，投资回报和创造力比男性更高；他曾公开表示可允许女生20岁大学毕业，这样就可以在25岁前生完两个小孩，家庭事业两不耽误；2014年时，携程更是宣布可以为员工提供零利率、最长贷款时限为10年的社会抚养费（即超生罚款）贷款。而在刚刚面世的这本新书中，梁建章在大谈人口与创新的关系之余，也将视角延展至与人口相关的更广泛议题。《人口创新力》一书作者梁建章、黄文政与经济学家林毅夫等人在谈及生育观念转变时，梁建章认为，束缚东亚女性越生越少的一个重要原因是东亚国家对于非婚生子女的禁忌。在谈及女性不愿意结婚的原因时，梁建章说，许多受过高等教育的女性，不愿嫁给受教育程度不高、欠成熟、经常沉迷于电子游戏的年轻男性；而在信息技术领域，虚拟现实技术的突破可以提供廉价而又真实的性体验，也将进一步削弱人们的结婚意愿。对于人口增长所需的自然资源，梁建章乐观地认为，由于现代经济对自然资源的需求很少，所以土地和自然资源的制约，已不再成为现代经济发展的瓶颈。而对于解决诸如全球变暖之类的问题，创新会显得更为重要。而对于公共设施的稀缺，梁建章则以旅游景点为例，认为人潮汹涌只是节假日的个别现象，增加设施对旅游景点来说不会有很好的回报，因为这些设施在大部分时间里供大于求。但实际上，人口众多对旅游业的发展是有好处的，因为从长远来看，更多需求会带来更多投资，从而建立更多更好的景点。很多人会认为，提高教育水平和教育质量，才是推动创新的源动力，但梁建章对教育问题有着不同看法。他认为，几乎没有证据能够证明教育方式对创新可以产生影响，教育知识提供了基本的技能，一个人能否可以成为一个创新者或者企业家，似乎纯粹是碰运气的事情；所以说，高等教育水平在某种程度上是创新的必要条件而非充分条件，也即不是教育到位就一定可以提升国家的颠覆性创新能力，但要想促使创新涌现，大规模的高等教育是必不可少的。在这一问题上，梁建章还用了中国的篮球建设和足球建设举例。梁建章说，中国的篮球建设要比足球建设成功，但足球和篮球选拔人才是不同的两种方式：对于篮球，政府可以集中资源全力训练那些依据身高被选拔出来的少数者，但这种自上而下的方式并不适合足球，因为很难预测到底谁会成为一名优秀的足球运动员，所以必须扩大青少年参与训练的范围。此外，对于低生育率可以减少失业这一论断，梁建章也进行了驳斥。在他看来，这一假设只可能在很短的一个时间内成立，因为有些工作需要资本投资。但除非存在很严格的监管，否则，就业市场是非常灵活的，它会不断地自我消化调整。当更多人出生时，虽然创造了更多的劳动力供应，但也创造了更多需求。而对于人工智能是否会导致失业这一问题，梁建章的态度则较为谨慎保守。他认为，从长远看，即使大部分日常工作可以被人工智能取代，未来仍会有许多与创新有关的工作机会属于人类。尤其是有关创新的工作将一直由人类完成，而人类也不会允许人工智能自行进行创新。前路漫漫梁建章对促进生育的呼吁也不是没有原因，根据年初统计局发布的报告数据显示，自放开二胎之后，2017年全年中国新生儿数量约为1700万，这比卫计委此前预估的2300万相比少了600万，甚至与政府预估的最低线2000万还有着300万的距离。而就像梁建章在其4月23日的新书发布会上所说的那样，要想扭转国人对于生育的态度是件很难的事情，中国女性的生育痛苦指数是全世界最高的，机会成本也是最高的，但这件事因为影响太重大了，所以硬着头皮还是必须要做。对此，梁建章在自己的新书里也提出了他的一些政策构想和建议，具体如下：继续推动城市化建设和大城市化，取消大城市的人口控制政策，充分发挥大城市的引领作用；在教育方面大力学习美国推进自主招生，或缩短学制，比如取消中考，将原先的九年制义务教育改为包含高中阶段在内的十年制义务教育；通过多种手段和措施推动移民政策的放宽，积极引入移民；在生育政策上，完全取消计划生育政策，全面放开生育，取消社会抚养费，取消生育审批制度；仿照发达国家，对养育家庭给予财力支持，可以按孩子数量抵税，对养育家庭的补贴也可按孩子实行累进制，贵家庭生育更多孩子；把学前看护纳入免费的义务教育范畴，也就是说政府提供免费的托儿所和幼儿园，让常住当地的家长只要有意愿就可以将孩子送入；在法律法规上取消对非婚生育的歧视，充分保障非婚孩子的合法权益。前一段时间，日本《旅行青蛙》大火，曾有消息说，该游戏其实是由日本生育部门联合游戏公司开发，目的是找到潜在的生育意向强的年轻人，如果连续玩这款游戏超过一周，后台会发你一封长信，鼓励你亲自生娃。事实证明，这条消息是假的，但即便如此，包括日本在内的很多政府已经切切实实地在采取各种办法鼓励生育了，而中国的计划生育政策仍未完全放开。三十多年前，对国富民强有着无限憧憬的中国人纷纷响应国家号召，“少生优生，幸福一生”；但近些年放开二胎的过程也证明，这一次，中国妇女似乎不会太容易被迅速鼓动。甚至还有人指出，中国的问题不是生完一胎的妇女不生二胎，而是很多妇女连一胎都不愿意生。无论如何，政府如果真的认为人口问题已经到了迫在眉睫的关头，那么，想要彻底扭转现状，需要做的还有很多很多。文章选自观察者网，2018年4月28日
2018年5月2日 -
【中国新闻网】人才争夺战持续火热 专家：应注重需求导向 避免一窝蜂
中新社北京4月26日电 (记者 付强)随着珠海对外公布引才新政，近期火热的“人才争夺战”再添“新军”。在日前由全球化智库(CCG)和中国人才50人论坛联合举办的研讨会上，来自人才领域的专家、业者表示，各地通过解决户口、补贴住房等政策构建人才高地，体现了对人才的重视，但在具体操作中应以实际需求为导向，避免“一窝蜂”。 “以往的引才政策多向高端人才倾斜，普通大学生受惠有限，”国家外国专家局国外人才信息研究中心原主任陈化北直言，人才新政有助于促进大学生就业。 中国政法大学原副校长马抗美指出，新政是人才理念逐渐升华的体现，可进一步唤起全社会对人才的关注。 智联招聘CEO郭盛则认为，住房问题一直是年轻人才肩上的沉重负担，住房补贴政策可帮他们减轻压力，更好释放创新创业的活力。 以武汉“力争5年内将100万大学生留在武汉”为起点，出台引才新政的城市已达20余个。“求才若渴是好事，但不应导致人才政策的‘一窝蜂’，”中国教育发展战略学会副会长周满生表示了自己的担忧。在他看来，引才既需政府引导，也应结合当地实际“按需出牌”。 中组部人才局原副巡视员胡建华对此持相同看法。他认为，各地在制定政策时，应针对自身特点、区位优势及未来发展方向综合考量，“别人出台政策，就必须立刻跟上，这样长此以往可能导致同质化。” 中国人事科学研究院原院长吴江则建议制定学科目录，将人才政策与产业发展对接，确保人才“引进来”后能“有所用”。 浏览新政不难发现，落户、住房等是各地政策的主要“发力点”。然而专家们普遍认为，除了上述硬性条件，城市的整体工作环境、生活水平等因素，也是关乎人才能否留得住、发展好的关键。“要提升城市的人文、自然、管理水平，为人才工作、生活创造良好条件，”胡建华说。 在目前出台人才新政的城市中，经济较发达者占据很大比例，这是否会加剧区域发展的不平衡？“这种风险是可能存在的，应该引起有关方面的重视。”马抗美指出，在国家层面建立长效机制，是逐步实现均衡发展的关键。 人口与未来网站联合创始人黄文政认为，对于人才的主要流出地区，应在政策上给予一定补贴，保证各地可持续发展，避免“强者愈强、弱者恒弱”。文章选自中国新闻网，2018年4月26日
2018年5月2日 -
梁建章：广聚英才 还须善用
理事简介梁建章，全球化智库（CCG）副主席、携程联合创始人、执行董事局主席。4月27日《人民日报》刊登了携程旅行网联合创始人兼董事局主席、北京大学光华管理学院经济学研究教授梁建章的署名文章《广聚英才 还须用之》。作为人口经济学学者，他还从全新的角度进一步分析了近来各大城市纷纷加入“抢人”大战的原因，其背后不仅显示出各大城市求才若渴的迫切需求，也提出了如何优化发展环境、留住人才的政策考量。 最近各地引才新政迭出，引人关注，也充分诠释了各地对“人才是第一资源”的认识，对“聚天下英才而用之”的迫切。 城市发展需要创新人才，创新人才也需要集聚地。像国内外很多高新科技园区，其发展就是基于创新人才的产业集聚效应。因为创新产业的集聚，科技人才在不同公司之间很容易流动，使人才与企业匹配。而且，拥有不同学科背景的人才获得了一起工作的机会，进而可以进行多种学科的合作、创新。 如果一个地理区域成为一个产业的创新中心，那么这一中心的集聚效应将会趋向于自我强化，随着时间的推移，这一中心的增长会越来越快、优势也越来越明显。可以预见，目前出现的引才热潮，将在这些城市激发出更加强大的集聚效应。 但值得注意的是，“聚天下英才而用之”，聚是第一步，用好才是关键。好政策“引才”，好环境“成事”。作为引才的主体，各地既要推出让人才“愿意来”的优惠措施，更要创造让人才“不想走”的创业环境。户口、补贴等只是聚拢人气的“先手招”，能不能留下人才、持续人气，更多的还要看软环境是否舒适、政商关系是否亲清、发展机会是否充分、人才是否合适。否则，人才来了又去并非不可能，城市做的也是“费力引才—轻易失才”的无用功。 总的来说，各地政府更加重视人力资源是好事，但不应该将其当作攀比条件、政绩工程。现在有的地方片面宣传引才的数字和速度，有的地方四处抢人开出超过当地实际能力的承诺，有的地方从“抢人大战”演变为“抢房大战”……凡此种种，都让引才走向歧途，值得注意和警惕。文章选自《人民日报》，2018年4月27日
2018年5月2日 -
王辉耀： “人才争夺战”宜疏不宜堵
王辉耀全球化智库（CCG）主任 这段时间，杭州、武汉、郑州、合肥、南京等20多个城市都出台了人才新政，希望依靠特殊政策和激励机制吸引更多外来人才落地。日前，全球化智库（CCG）和中国人才50人论坛联合举行研讨会，多位人才专家就各地“人才争夺战”进行解读并提出了相应的建议。 改革开放初期，国内的人才流动更多表现为单向趋势，主要是从农村流向城市并最终固定下来。这是中国“国内移民”的一个主要形式。一些农民工由于在城市工作时间较长，尤其是他们的子女出生在城市，都很难选择再回到农村，更多的就选择留在城市。 另外我们要看到，一个地区对“人才”的需要是多层次的，不能只重视高端人才，而忽视那些与高端人才配套的技能型、服务型人才。地区的发展需要多元的人才构成，让技能型、服务型人才充分发挥作用，也是人才工作成败的一个关键。以加工制造业的中心东莞为例，2016年东莞全区域人口826万，但其中630万人都是非当地户籍人口，其中技术熟练的农民工堪称东莞人才的代表，正是这部分“新移民”支撑着东莞的发展。 国内的 “移民”人才是经济社会发展的第一资源。现在我国从人口红利开始转向人才红利，各地城市都逐渐地意识到人才的重要性。人才争夺战打破了大城市对资源的垄断，促进了人才流动，松动了户籍对人才的限制，从这个角度看，“人才争夺战”有其突出的积极意义。 当前，一些地方的人才建设工作还存在着不少误区，急需以大力度改革来完善人才服务，尤其是加强多层次人才体系建设，特别要重视“技能型移民”人才的培养使用，真正做到人尽其才、才尽其用、用有所成。 地区发展要注重多层次的人才引进，政府要深化户籍改革，完善对“国内移民”的服务。人才既要有包括大学生以及创业者等在内的高端人才，也要有职业白领、技术蓝领以及城市运行服务人员等。比如说，深圳人口有两千多万，其中有一千多万人没有本地户籍，但这些人中有大量优秀人才，政府在吸引人才时要注重这部分人群，加快户籍改革，完善配套服务，将这部分技能型、服务型人才留住用好。在人力资源越来越“值钱”的当下，不应将人口多当作一种负担，唯有努力提升城市管理和服务水平，才能真正打造出城市的人力资源优势，并把这种优势打造成城市的一种核心竞争力。 当前，要进一步深化户籍制度改革，给外来人才提供相应的配套服务，不但有助于他们更好地生活、工作，还有利于当地的劳动力变为消费者，从而扩大内需，加快经济结构调整和经济转型，从长远方面促进经济发展。在深化户籍制度改革方面，可以先在省会城市试行积分落户制度，落户的条件不仅限于学历，同时可以考虑技能以及工作年限，向那些有固定工作并且按时上交社保一定年限的居民，尤其是对特殊技能人才、熟练劳工、家政人员等逐步开放户口。为避免引发社会问题，可以从局部开始一点点放开，取得一定经验后向全国推广。 对各地出现的这一轮“人才争夺战”，上级政府和有关主管部门、职能部门应以开放的态度积极引导，总体上宜放不宜收、宜疏不宜堵，如果强行制定某些政策限制，某些城市将会出现“一管就死”的尴尬。中央及地方政府应进一步深化户籍制度改革，包括在顶层设计上进行平衡，做好统筹协调，避免地区之间“各自为战”和“恶意争夺”，并做好对边远贫困地区、边疆民族地区、革命老区和基层一线的人才平衡工作。 在地方政府层面，需要狠抓政策落地，政策应与市场一起发挥作用，以吸引和留住人才。各地政府需要了解自身对人才的需要，避免“跟风”出台政策，要从长远出发制定完整的政策体系，建立人才数据库，建立人才发展长效机制。地方政府在出台政策之后，还要下大力气抓好政策落实，避免人才政策成为“中看不中用”的政绩秀。 眼下各地展开“人才争夺战”，关键要创造积极条件吸引各个层面的人才。地方政府尤其要重视对技能型、服务型人才的引进和使用，并利用人才引进的契机深化户籍制度改革等各项改革，最终形成“谋发展引人才，引人才促改革”的良性互动。文章选自《北京青年报》，2018年4月29日
2018年5月2日 -
[The Wall Street Journal] A Limit to China’s Economic Rise: Not Enough Babies
China’s family-planning law stipulates penalties for those who have more than two children. GREG BAKER/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESA rapidly aging workforce threatens the nation’s ambitions, but Beijing still discourages childbirthBEIJING—China is careening toward a demographic time bomb. In another decade, it will have more people over 60 than the entire population of the U.S. Its workforce is shrinking, and not enough babies are being born.Yet when Li Yuanyuan, a professor, was expecting her third child last year, her employer in the eastern city of Qingdao pressured her to end the pregnancy or resign. She refused, but the stress gave her nightmares. “How can I not worry about it?” she said during her pregnancy. “We could end up raising three children without any income.”In the nation with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, couples are still discouraged from having multiple offspring—children who could help rejuvenate the fast-aging population.Some experts have argued over the years that slower population growth could help ease the pressure for China to create new jobs as technology increases productivity. Others contend that the aging problem looms over China’s long-term economic health, presenting a vulnerability in its global ambitions over resources, technology and industry amid a deepening trade conflict with the U.S.Chinese officials have been softening birth restrictions, and say they are reluctant to make sudden, drastic changes to longstanding policy. Some demographers say the moves are too slow to reverse the trend.While all couples have been able to have two children without penalty since China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016, family-planning law stipulates penalties for those who have more. Local-government agents enforce the law with fines and state employers often pressure women to abide by the birth limits.China can’t afford such strong-arming, lawmakers, researchers and parents warn. These opponents of birth restrictions hoped 2018 would be the year China dropped limits altogether.Yet Beijing can’t let go, continuing the reproductive meddling some demographers say was always based on guesswork and unnecessary even four decades ago.Beijing did signal a notable change in March at the National People’s Congress, declaring it would replace the National Health and Family Planning Commission—the bureaucracy that enforces birth rules—with a new health ministry. But there was no pledge to lift birth restrictions.That left some parents in limbo, including a 34-year-old businesswoman in southern China who asked to be identified by her surname, Cai. She was excited yet confused by the news from the congress, wondering if she would no longer have to pay a fine of about $12,000 for the birth of her third child last year: “Does that mean third children are legal now?”Nurses hold babies in 2016 at a birth center in Beijing. PHOTO: GREG BAKER/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESMs. Cai and her husband took a loan to pay the $7,000 fine for having a second child several years ago when the one-child policy was in effect. Faced with the steeper fine from the local family-planning branch for their third child, she sold her clothing shop in Fujian province.“It is hard enough to raise the kids,” she said. “We don’t know what to do.”Asked what will happen to the family-planning commission now and whether China has any plans to lift all birth restrictions, the information office of the State Council, China’s cabinet, responded: “We will continue communications and connections with the Health and Family Planning Commission.”State family planners have cautioned against drastic change in birth policies. “The fundamental reality of the state is that it has a large population,” Wang Peian, who has been deputy director of the family-planning commission, told The Wall Street Journal last year. “The Chinese government has been adjusting and improving family-planning policy in a steady, cautious and realistic manner.”Mr. Wang said at a press conference last year that technological innovation and health advances will leave China with enough workers.“China doesn’t have a population shortage,” he said. “Not now, not in 100 years.”It isn’t clear what Mr. Wang’s position will be after the reorganization. The family-planning commission didn’t respond to a request for comment on its scope in the future or on Mr. Wang’s role.China’s clinging to birth restrictions defies a clear demographic trend: Its workforce is shrinking and the population is rapidly aging. By 2050, there will be 1.3 workers for each retiree, according to official estimates, compared with 2.8 now.No matter what the government does now, it is too late to significantly change the overall trend because of social attitudes, say demographers such as Gu Baochang, a professor of demography at Renmin University in Beijing. “They should have lifted all birth restrictions before 2010,” he said. “Whatever steps they take now, China’s low-fertility trend is no longer reversible.”Aging populations can hurt economies because a shrinking labor pool tends to drive up wages, while a growing elderly population requires more spending on pensions and health care. In a worse-case scenario, slowing growth and a labor shortage could leave China unable to care for hundreds of millions of retirees.A rapidly aging population was a major factor in Moody’s Investors Service’s downgrade of China’s sovereign rating in May 2017. Elderly care is expected to erode household savings and government coffers, straining the government’s ability to repay already high debt, Moody’s said. It predicted China’s potential economic growth rate would slow to about 5% over the next five years. China’s 2017 growth was 6.9%.“China is really interesting and unique,” said Marie Diron, a Moody’s analyst of sovereign risk, “because it is aging so much earlier than anyone else.”Countries facing shrinking workforces have tried to ease the impact by raising the retirement age or relying on immigration. Singapore, which has liberal immigration policies and which offers a “baby bonus” of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($7,500) in cash as well as grants for parents toward health and education, has a growing population despite a low fertility rate of 1.16. Japan has steered healthy retirees back to work, sometimes with the help of technology making up for age-related deficiencies.Despite one of the lowest retirement ages in the world, at 55 on average, Beijing has been slow to implement a plan to gradually raise the retirement age amid severe opposition. Officials had originally indicated they would present the plan last year. It was left out of measures unveiled at the congress in March, in which Beijing said the new ministry “will actively deal with the aging of the population,” with measures to develop the elderly-care sector and health-care reform.Past policy changes haven’t fixed the trend—not even ending the one-child policy did. Newborns rose by 1.3 million in 2016, the first year without the policy—less than half the official projection—to 17.86 million, from 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.Experts say that in another decade China will have more people over 60 than the entire population of the U.S. Above, residents at a nursing home in Beijing. PHOTO: WU HONG/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCKIn 2017, births slowed to 17.23 million, well below the official forecast of more than 20 million.In a generation that grew up without siblings, a one-child mind-set is deeply entrenched. Maternity-leave policies have been expanded but some women say taking leave twice is a career impediment. An All-China Women’s Federation survey found 53% of respondents with one child didn’t want a second.Even without birth limits, China’s economic development would have reduced fertility rates, says Martin Whyte, a Harvard University Chinese-studies expert. That has been the pattern elsewhere in the world: When incomes rise, the sizes of families tend to go down.If the nation drops birth policies now, Mr. Whyte said, “China will learn what many other countries have learned—that it is much more difficult to get people to have more babies” than the other way around.Population mathFor China’s leaders, population math has never been simple. In Communist rule’s early days, Mao Zedong said: “With many people, strength is great.”As the Communist Party struggled to build the economy, some officials began calling for population control to help China catch up with the West. In 1980, Deng Xiaoping launched the one-child policy saying “We must do this…Otherwise, our economy cannot be developed well and people’s lives won’t be improved.”Fertility rates dropped below replacement levels in the early 1990s and have continued falling. Yet Beijing codified the one-child policy in 2001, passing the Population and Family Planning Law that provided a legal framework. It amended the law in December 2015 to allow for two children but kept provisions for birth-limit-violation penalties including fines known as “social-maintenance fees.”Provinces and townships have local enforcers of the law. A bureaucracy of half a million workers has over the years collected billions of dollars in birth fines, calculates Wu Youshui, a lawyer who obtained disclosures from local governments via open-records requests.While the government has realized the need to ease controls, it is fearful of drastic moves, said a senior official who has been in charge of implementing family-planning policy. “Any policy change in China has been incremental. The key is to ensure policy continuity.”Even for “legal” births, there is paperwork required to give birth in many public hospitals. Because a birth registration, which is needed at some public hospitals, requires a marriage certificate, unwed mothers can’t give birth at those hospitals, according to nurses and administrators at public hospitals. Family-planning officials have been able to ask courts to seize savings of birth offenders, court records show. Compliance weighs heavily in officials’ performance reviews, language in government regulations shows.Local enforcementWhen Ms. Li, the Qingdao professor, refused to abort her third child, she said, her university employer accused her of selfishly putting at risk her supervisors’ careers, the school’s future and co-workers’ bonuses. A university spokeswoman didn’t respond to faxed inquiries.With the help of local church friends, her family moved to the Philippines, where she gave birth in November.Hu Zhenggao, 42, ran afoul of the limits last year visiting his Yunnan province hometown. A father of four, he was taken away one night by local county officials who forcibly sterilized him, saying he had broken family-planning rules, he said in an account he posted on social media.His ordeal prompted an outcry online. Yunnan province authorities later put out a statement saying that forced surgeries aren’t allowed and that the officials had been wrong.Mr. Hu confirmed his social-media post, saying he didn’t want to talk about his treatment and wasn’t seeking compensation. An official at the family planning bureau of Zhaotong, which was responsible for investigating the incident, said there had been an apology to Mr. Hu; she offered no further comment.Wealthier Chinese have other options. Zou Yue, a blogger based in Guangzhou province, gave birth to her third child at an Irvine, Calif., clinic in 2016. Having a child overseas usually means the fine can be avoided. “I’d rather spend that money in the U.S. than paying a fine,” she said.President Xi Jinping has signaled the demographic dilemma is on his mind. In 2015, he said China needs more births. In October, he omitted a traditional reference to “family planning” in his party-congress report.Last month’s sidelining of the family-planning commission is the strongest sign yet of his concern. Lifting birth restrictions would likely require a constitutional change.“I think Xi’s views about demography are clear: He considers population more as a resource than a burden,” said Huang Wenzheng, a researcher at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), a Beijing-based independent think tank, and a co-founder of a hedge-fund firm that invests globally. “But of course he cannot easily abandon the family-planning policy because that would be a sharp turn away from his predecessors’ policies.”U.S.-based Chinese researcher Yi Fuxian believes China overstates its population numbers and fertility rate—the number of children a woman has over her lifetime, which official data puts at around 1.5. He said a different reading of available data suggests the fertility rate is as low as 1.05.In China, as elsewhere in the world, the hesitation to have more than one child is strongest in big cities, partly because of higher child-raising costs. Shanghai is especially lopsided, with low fertility rates and about a third of the population over 60, according to the municipal government. In New York City, adults over 65 make up about 13% of the total population, according to the city government.The fertility rate in Liaoning, a province in China’s northern rust belt, is at 0.74, official data show. Even so, Liaoning punishes those who have a third child, with some couples fined more than 145,000 yuan ($23,000), according to public court records. The Liaoning family-planning commission didn’t respond to faxed questions.The March congress move hasn’t persuaded people such as a mother in Dalian, a Liaoning port city, who said she has been hiding since her third child’s birth to avoid a fine she fears would be five times her family’s annual income.Even after the congress, she said, she didn’t dare approach local authorities and is putting her hope in birth restrictions being lifted soon. “Then I can take my son out to enjoy the sunshine.”A high-school teacher in Tangshan in northern China who asked to be identified by her surname, Sun, said she discovered mid-March she was several weeks pregnant. She has two children, 16 and 1½. She called the local family-planning agency to ask if the congress move meant a third child was allowed.It told her nothing had changed, she said. Aside from triggering a fine, having a third child would probably cost her job, Ms. Sun said, as she is a government worker.A few days later, she said, she swallowed a pill to terminate the pregnancy. “They are really going to scrap the family-planning controls this year?” she asked. “Who can tell me for sure?”A spokesman of the Tangshan family-planning agency told the Journal in March, after the congress, that “we are still waiting for any new policies from the central government” and that “third children are still not allowed. The rules are the rules.”From WSJ，2018-4-29
2018年5月2日 -
【Xinhua】Chinese entrepreneurs champion globalization amid protectionism
TIANJIN, April 28 (Xinhua) -- Chinese business leaders voiced their commitment to furthering economic integration at a high-level forum amid rising protectionism in many parts of the world.At the China Green Companies Summit 2018 held in Tianjin early this week, Chinese entrepreneurs and executives used their companies’ increasing global presence and cooperation with overseas partners to make a case for globalization as a source of prosperity.In August last year, Chinese conglomerate CITIC Capital completed the acquisition of a majority stake in U.S. fast food chain McDonald’s stores in China."From food delivery services to online marketing, CITIC has been exploring new channels to develop the business of McDonald’s in China since the acquisition, winning praise from its headquarters," said Zhang Yichen, chairman of CITIC Capital.Despite a sluggish recovery in the global economy, foreign direct investment by Chinese companies reached 183 billion U.S. dollars in 2016, an increase of 44 percent year on year, according to a report by Center for China and Globalization(CCG), a think tank.New Hope Group, China’s largest private agribusiness firm, has made extensive forays into the international market in recent years. Its feed business has entered more than 40 countries and regions, creating about 100,000 job opportunities overseas, according to Liu Yonghao, chairman of the group.Last November, New Hope acquired Australia’s Real Pet Food Co. for 5 billion yuan (about 781 million U.S. dollars) in partnership with a group of other Asian investors in a move that would connect a leading pet food producer with the rapidly growing market in China."What we do best is to marry our resource supplies with the demands of Chinese and global markets," Liu said. "It is easier to win the support of foreign governments when investment from Chinese companies helps boost the local economy and employment."Liu’s words were echoed by Guo Guangchang, chairman of Fosun International Limited, one of China’s leading healthcare companies.Attributing Fosun’s annual profit growth of more than 25 percent over the past five years to globalization, Guo believes embracing globalization is an inevitable choice when a country develops to a certain stage."One of Fosun’s visions is to create happy lives for a billion families, as we did in Africa," said Guo.After purchasing Guilin Pharmaceutical and obtaining certification from the World Trade Organization, Fosun introduced injectable artesunate, which has proved to be effective in treating severe malaria, to the African market. In 2017 alone, more than 20 million patients with severe malaria, mostly children under five, received artesunate injections."We are proud that the death rate from malaria in Africa is declining. The application of artesunate injections is a perfect example of the combination of business and public welfare," said Guo.Forty years of reform and opening-up have witnessed China’s integration into the world, said Zhang of CITIC. "We may be tested by difficulties and frustrations, but the general trend of globalization is irreversible," he said.Many entrepreneurs at the forum said that Chinese companies should be more rational and better respect international rules in overseas investment, and try to equip their talent with global expertise."We should expand international trade on the basis of reciprocity and mutual benefit," said Guo. "Only by sharing and cooperation can an enterprise obtain a promising future."From Xinhua，2018-4-28
2018年5月2日