���������������������������������������������
CCG持续关注国际关系议题，推动中国与全球化的发展，积极开展国际交流，充分发挥智库“二轨外交”作用，在巴黎和平论坛、达沃斯世界经济论坛、慕尼黑安全会议等重要国际政策与意见交流平台上组织分论坛、边会、圆桌会议、晚宴等活动，促进国际政商学界对话，凝聚共识；CCG积极与各国政界、智库界、工商界开展“二轨外交”活动，每年常态化赴多国调研与交流，促进中外关系攸关方互动，保持与多国政策圈层的沟通渠道。
-
Wang Huiyao: With its unparalleled competitive edge in infrastructure building, China could become t
Wang Huiyao: With its unparalleled competitive edge in infrastructure building, China could become the US’ best partner in its ambitious infrastructure plan for four reasons.Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and his US counterpart Donald Trump (L) take a walk to further discuss bilateral cooperation issues in the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the United States, April 7, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua]The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump in Florida concluded with both sides saying it put bilateral ties on track. Xinhua News Agency said that during the meeting, Xi urged the two countries to push forward the negotiation on the Bilateral Investment Treaty, promote healthy bilateral trade and investment, explore and develop pragmatic cooperation in infrastructure and energy fields.So will infrastructure investment be Xi’s real gift to Trump at their next meeting?Infrastructure investment is the centerpiece of Trump’s blueprint for making "America Great Again". He has vowed to spend $1 trillion over 10 years to improve (and build) the roads and bridges.China has attached importance to the infrastructure construction for long. Besides, the US remains China’s top destination for outbound investments, with a record $45.6 billion of Chinese money pouring into the US last year alone. With its unparalleled competitive edge in infrastructure building, China could become the US’ best partner in its ambitious infrastructure plan for four reasons.First, Chinese investment in US infrastructure will help Trump to boost the US economy. The US Department of Transportation says the funding gap for road transport infrastructure alone is $900 billion. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao told reporters that Trump’s infrastructure plan would be expanded to include energy, water, broadband, and hospitals for veterans.Whether the Congress will pass the enabling bill is a question that no one can answer at this time. The infrastructure plan is a critical component in the president’s economic initiatives collectively known as Trumponomics. A prolonged political impasse is likely to stunt the desired effects of a timely growth spurt in the economy driven by the massive spending. Trump has promised his supporters to double the growth rates in a relatively short period of time. Failure in pushing forward his infrastructure plan will not only dash the president’s ego, but the prospects of economic growth and the hope of American people as well.In just the past decade, China has invested more than $11 trillion in infrastructure, and China-US investment and trade (which reached $519.6 billion last year) created 2.6 million American jobs and helped each US household on average save $850.Trump wants investments in those parts of the US that have suffered the consequences of deindustrialization, and Chinese companies, such as Fuyao Glass, have already invested about $1 billion to build plants in Michigan and Ohio, hiring about 4,000 American workers.Second, an infrastructure boom in the US will provide business opportunities for Chinese as well as US companies in the construction sector. China Construction America, for example, has built landmark projects such as the Alexander Hamilton Bridge and the Fulton Center in Manhattan.Third, infrastructure as an asset class is gaining popularity among institutional investors. Infrastructure projects are backed by governments and yield stable cash flow with a longer time horizon, and investors across the globe are keen to help finance them.And fourth, although the US is a relative newcomer to public-private partnership, recent trends indicate that PPPs are gaining traction in the country. And given the surging populations in US metropolitan areas and the enormous infrastructure needs, the country’s PPP market is expected to grow further in the coming years.But Chinese companies also face challenges. For starters, Trump’s "Buy America, Hire Americans" slogan is likely to lead to preferential treatment for domestic companies in infrastructure deals. Local vested interests such as bond issuers, contractors and suppliers will jealously guard the infrastructure pie against Chinese companies.The recent setback suffered by Ant Financial, a subsidiary of Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group, in acquiring MoneyGram showed national security concerns can be expedient ammunition against Chinese companies. Moreover, PPP deals involve complex regulatory and financial structures, and the lack of expertise on the part of certain local-level governments block PPP deals.China can step up efforts at economic diplomacy, though, to loop the US in its infrastructure-centered Belt and Road Initiative (the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road). During his meeting with Trump in Florida, Xi said China welcomed US participation in the initiative, and the proposed US-China Comprehensive Dialogue can be used to reopen negotiation on the Bilateral Investment Treaty and invite the US to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.In the meantime, infrastructure investment promoting mechanisms led by government agencies such as China’s Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, or Chinese embassies and consulates in the US, can serve as hubs for sharing information on projects and investment regulations. Furthermore, closer ties between provincial-state governments in China and the US can drive sub-level governments to collaborate with one another over infrastructure projects in their jurisdictions. This can be done via exchange platforms such as an annual US-China Governors Forum held alternately in both countries.Also, Chinese companies can win local support if they direct their US investments toward helping local governments create jobs and develop the local economies. The China Investment Corporation, or sovereign wealth fund, for instance, can work with private equity funds both at home and abroad to form an infrastructure consortium to facilitate merger and acquisition deals and equity investments that turn US companies into local partners that help their investors take roots in local communities.Nearing 100 days in office, Trump needs something to increase his approval ratings. His ambitious infrastructure plan is far from fully articulated, despite Chao’s recent announcement that a bill could be introduced by the end of this year. It will be an uphill battle for Trump to get the Congress to approve the budget for infrastructure, because it is an arena where divergent and intricate interests play out. Trump needs allies and perhaps Xi can explain to him that China could be the one when they meet the next time.About AuthorWang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG),Beijing.From China Daily， April 2017
2017年4月18日 -
张首晟：我不收没有独到思想的学生
专家简介张首晟，CCG学术委员会专家,著名物理学家、斯坦福大学终身教授。 美国华裔物理学家、斯坦福大学资深教授张首晟去年与诺贝尔物理学奖擦肩而过，很多人为他扼腕叹息。“我觉得这是可遇而不可求的”，张首晟日前在北京接受《环球时报》记者专访时表示。不过，在导师杨振宁看来，“张首晟获得诺贝尔奖只是时间问题”。 “我有一个科学发现，导致了一个全新材料的发明，也改变了我命运的轨迹。”张首晟所说的发现就是锡烯。据预测，这可能会成为世界上第一个能在常温下达到100％导电率的超级材料，远胜近年来被热议的石墨烯，在未来更高集成度的电子元器件应用方面具有重要意义。此前，张首晟已包揽物理界所有重量级奖项，包括欧洲物理奖、美国物理学会巴克莱奖等。对于2016年与诺贝尔奖擦肩而过，张首晟在接受《环球时报》专访时回应称，“在发现的那一刻给我们带来的快乐是最好的回报。”他也坦言，如果未来能获诺奖，这辈子也挺值，“但它有一个排队的过程”。 相比其他学科，华裔物理学家似乎成绩更为突出，是因为华人在物理方面有更多天赋吗？“这比较难讲，我想，首先是学物理的华人较多，比例较大。”张首晟对《环球时报》记者说。至于为何很多中国科学家到美国以后频获国际大奖，他认为，这并不是中国教育体制出了什么问题，“杨振宁也是从中国的教育体制中培养起来的，我觉得主要是时间问题。中国开始改革开放才30多年，与欧美相比，引进科学的时间较短，需要足够的发展时间。” 日前，在中国与全球化智库(CCG)主办的第三届中国与全球化圆桌论坛上，张首晟的发言引发关注。他认为，当今社会，各国真正的争夺并不是领土，而是科学技术创新。“科学是一个无限的江山，科技创新会是中国和平崛起一个大的方式。”科技创新的核心就是人才。在张首晟看来，中国人才计划中，最成功的是“千人计划”。作为“千人之一”，他虽然不能完全离开斯坦福回到中国，但过去一段时间，几乎每年在中国花几个月时间与清华大学的学生一起做科研。他认为，现在中国的研究人才有充足的储备，学生们很优秀，科技仪器非常领先，在科技经费支出等某些领域甚至已远超欧美。 “但是，中国科学家还缺少的是什么？我想是一种品位，就是知道十条路里选哪条路能成功。这也是大科学家和一般科学家最大的差别。”张首晟向《环球时报》记者解释称，中国过去的一些科技项目往往指导性太强，一些方向不一定能获得影响国际的成果。张首晟选择新材料作为学术方向，短短几年已取得国际性成果。在他看来，能否做对选择题和美国教育体制关系并不大，“美国也有各种各样的科学家，主要还是要靠个人努力，提高自己的眼界和品味。这也是最难训练的一部分，我师从杨振宁教授的过程中学到了很多东西。看一些科学史也会很有帮助。” “从更长远的角度看，中国更成功的计划可能是‘青年千人计划”。张首晟说，他的学生辈很多已经全职回到中国，他们是非常有创意、有活力的年轻科学家。不过，青年科学家往往被编到一个比较成熟的科研团队，不容易体现出他是不是有足够的品位，未来能否选择好的学术方向。在斯坦福大学，考察一个年轻教授能否成为终身教授，最重要的指标就是学术独立性。在7年中，不主张他跟资深教授合作，一定要完全独立做自己的科研项目。 究竟应如何界定人才？马云三次参加高考两次落榜，第三次才考入一所普通大学。在他没有成功之前，在他上门推销屡遭白眼时，会有人把他当成人才吗？面对《环球时报》记者的问题，张首晟以另一个身份——丹华资本创始人做了回答。作为投资人，他发现，一些好的创业者并没有很高的学历背景。“总的来说，我判断人才的准则是，他的原创性到底有多大。一个创业者再怎么草根，如果他有一个特殊的想法，我们还是会支持。马云在创业早期就体现了独特的看法。同样，学历再高，如果没有自己独到的思想，我也不会收他做学生。因为今天这个世界，别的所有东西全部可以被机器人取代，但人的创意不能被取代。”张首晟说。(本报记者 张妮)文章刊于《环球时报》，2017年4月17日
2017年4月18日 -
【China Daily】Wang Huiyao: Infrastructure road to better Sino-US ties
Wang Huiyao: With its unparalleled competitive edge in infrastructure building, China could become the US’ best partner in its ambitious infrastructure plan for four reasons.Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and his US counterpart Donald Trump (L) take a walk to further discuss bilateral cooperation issues in the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the United States, April 7, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua]The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump in Florida concluded with both sides saying it put bilateral ties on track. Xinhua News Agency said that during the meeting, Xi urged the two countries to push forward the negotiation on the Bilateral Investment Treaty, promote healthy bilateral trade and investment, explore and develop pragmatic cooperation in infrastructure and energy fields.So will infrastructure investment be Xi’s real gift to Trump at their next meeting?Infrastructure investment is the centerpiece of Trump’s blueprint for making "America Great Again". He has vowed to spend $1 trillion over 10 years to improve (and build) the roads and bridges.China has attached importance to the infrastructure construction for long. Besides, the US remains China’s top destination for outbound investments, with a record $45.6 billion of Chinese money pouring into the US last year alone. With its unparalleled competitive edge in infrastructure building, China could become the US’ best partner in its ambitious infrastructure plan for four reasons.First, Chinese investment in US infrastructure will help Trump to boost the US economy. The US Department of Transportation says the funding gap for road transport infrastructure alone is $900 billion. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao told reporters that Trump’s infrastructure plan would be expanded to include energy, water, broadband, and hospitals for veterans.Whether the Congress will pass the enabling bill is a question that no one can answer at this time. The infrastructure plan is a critical component in the president’s economic initiatives collectively known as Trumponomics. A prolonged political impasse is likely to stunt the desired effects of a timely growth spurt in the economy driven by the massive spending. Trump has promised his supporters to double the growth rates in a relatively short period of time. Failure in pushing forward his infrastructure plan will not only dash the president’s ego, but the prospects of economic growth and the hope of American people as well.In just the past decade, China has invested more than $11 trillion in infrastructure, and China-US investment and trade (which reached $519.6 billion last year) created 2.6 million American jobs and helped each US household on average save $850.Trump wants investments in those parts of the US that have suffered the consequences of deindustrialization, and Chinese companies, such as Fuyao Glass, have already invested about $1 billion to build plants in Michigan and Ohio, hiring about 4,000 American workers.Second, an infrastructure boom in the US will provide business opportunities for Chinese as well as US companies in the construction sector. China Construction America, for example, has built landmark projects such as the Alexander Hamilton Bridge and the Fulton Center in Manhattan.Third, infrastructure as an asset class is gaining popularity among institutional investors. Infrastructure projects are backed by governments and yield stable cash flow with a longer time horizon, and investors across the globe are keen to help finance them.And fourth, although the US is a relative newcomer to public-private partnership, recent trends indicate that PPPs are gaining traction in the country. And given the surging populations in US metropolitan areas and the enormous infrastructure needs, the country’s PPP market is expected to grow further in the coming years.But Chinese companies also face challenges. For starters, Trump’s "Buy America, Hire Americans" slogan is likely to lead to preferential treatment for domestic companies in infrastructure deals. Local vested interests such as bond issuers, contractors and suppliers will jealously guard the infrastructure pie against Chinese companies.The recent setback suffered by Ant Financial, a subsidiary of Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group, in acquiring MoneyGram showed national security concerns can be expedient ammunition against Chinese companies. Moreover, PPP deals involve complex regulatory and financial structures, and the lack of expertise on the part of certain local-level governments block PPP deals.China can step up efforts at economic diplomacy, though, to loop the US in its infrastructure-centered Belt and Road Initiative (the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road). During his meeting with Trump in Florida, Xi said China welcomed US participation in the initiative, and the proposed US-China Comprehensive Dialogue can be used to reopen negotiation on the Bilateral Investment Treaty and invite the US to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.In the meantime, infrastructure investment promoting mechanisms led by government agencies such as China’s Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, or Chinese embassies and consulates in the US, can serve as hubs for sharing information on projects and investment regulations. Furthermore, closer ties between provincial-state governments in China and the US can drive sub-level governments to collaborate with one another over infrastructure projects in their jurisdictions. This can be done via exchange platforms such as an annual US-China Governors Forum held alternately in both countries.Also, Chinese companies can win local support if they direct their US investments toward helping local governments create jobs and develop the local economies. The China Investment Corporation, or sovereign wealth fund, for instance, can work with private equity funds both at home and abroad to form an infrastructure consortium to facilitate merger and acquisition deals and equity investments that turn US companies into local partners that help their investors take roots in local communities.Nearing 100 days in office, Trump needs something to increase his approval ratings. His ambitious infrastructure plan is far from fully articulated, despite Chao’s recent announcement that a bill could be introduced by the end of this year. It will be an uphill battle for Trump to get the Congress to approve the budget for infrastructure, because it is an arena where divergent and intricate interests play out. Trump needs allies and perhaps Xi can explain to him that China could be the one when they meet the next time.About AuthorWang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG),Beijing.From China Daily， April 2017
2017年4月18日 -
【The Point】How can Chinese overseas companies deal with Trump policies?
[VIDEO WATCHING]When Chinese President Xi Jinping meets US President Donald Trump in Florida, the imbalance trade between two countries was high on their agenda. How much will Trump propose 1 trillion dollars infrastructure plan for the next decade? How this economic relationship? How can Chinese overseas companies deal with Trump policies? The Point Studio inviting Dr. Wang Huiyao, President of Center for China and Globalization(CCG), to share his opinions about the future of the bilateral cooperation in the US’s infrastructure development and One Belt, One Road initiative. Wang Huiyao said ,CRRC going into US market is a good example for Chinese companies working on the infrastructure projects in the US. Trump’s 1 trillion dollars plan will provide more opportunities in this field, and CCG had recently released a report on above issue, titled “Infrastructure Cooperation-New Opportunities for US-China Relations”, and there are 7 Reasons for optimism in US-China cooperation over infrastructure investment: 1. Chinese investment in US infrastructure will come to Trump’s aid in helping his administration boost the economy. 2. Increased infrastructure investments inthe US will provide business opportunities for Chinese construction and engineering contractors. 3. Infrastructure cooperation will prompt Chinese rail transportation companies to pursue a more effective “going global” strategy. 4. Trump’s infrastructure plan will further motivate Chinese heavy equipment manufacturing conglomerates to expand into US markets. 5. Cutting-edge US mass transport experiments, such as Hyperloop, will have more Chinese high-tech companies as partners. 6. Infrastructure cooperation aligns with an ongoing trend for large institutional investors to take an interest in US infrastructure from an asset management perspective. 7. There is large room for growth in the development of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in the US. Dr. Wang believes that China can share experiences with US on infrastructure development, and welcomes the US to join One Belt, One Road initiative.From CNTN， April, 2017
2017年4月18日 -
薛澜：中国全球化人才战略面临转折点
专家简介薛澜，中国与全球化智库(CCG)学术委员会专家，清华大学公共管理学院院长。薛澜在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言： 非常高兴今天有这个机会参加这个讨论。对于人才方面，CCG多年都在研究，在座的很多专家也都非常了解CCG在人才方面做出的贡献。每年我们都讨论这个话题，今天我想跳出原来的思路，从全球人才战略这个角度考虑，讲三个观点： 第一，人才战略首先要从教育开始。 我们今天上午一直在讨论全球化，我想人的观念非常重要。中国发展到今天，我们的全球观是什么？正好前两天我参加OECD的一个会议，当时一个官员就说，在日内瓦听习主席讲话之后，一个美国非常有名的评论家跟OECD的官员讲，如果你闭上眼睛听讲话，你会以为这可能是奥巴马或者是其他领导人在讲，跟原来大家对中国的印象是完全不同的。如果我们现在把习主席讲话的这些内容跟我们目前在国内的教育，或者我们所宣传的东西对比，中间其实还有很大的差距。 我们面临的一个很大的挑战是，我们怎么把现在开始形成的全球观变成全社会的共识，或者变成一定主流的共识。我觉得我们还未见得形成这样的共识。大家看特朗普想逆全球化趋势而动，实际上美国全社会的共识是美国融入全球化进程很深，全社会用各种方式在制约着它，让它不能向后退。其实中国全球化现在面临的挑战是，我想国家领导和各方面已经有了积极融入全球化进程的决心，但是我们社会在全球化的共识方面有没有形成？所以我觉得可能要从教育开始，让社会形成一个主流的共识，这方面我们还有比较长的路要走。 第二，中国全球化的人才战略是不是也到了一个转折点？ 这个转折点跟中国经济一样。大家现在讲中国经济要从GDP转向GNP。大家也讲日本经济前些年的转变，当时青木先生给我们做过一个分析，虽然日本经济增长速度放缓了很多，但实际上日本前些年在海外打造了相当于一个日本的GDP。中国现在面临着经济发展，企业走出去的局面，我们可能也要改变我们的观念。原来我们的人才GDP的观念是想把人拼命吸引到国内来；现在我们可能有时候还要吸引我们的人到国外去，到中国的企业，或者国际组织，或者所有可能跟中国发展相关的一些机构或者是企业去工作。所以我想，这个转变也是我们需要考虑的。 第三，全球化其实是去除国界和各种界限的过程。 我觉得我们在促进人才发展方面到了一个新阶段。原来我们人才稀缺，所以我们用各种各样的计划吸引一些人回来，给他们创造更好的条件，相当于创造了小的圈子或者是界限。但是现在也许到了一个转折点。我觉得可能现在好的计划还可以继续进行，但是更关键的是要创造更好的环境，打破界限，真正让它形成一个比较无形的，来去自由，各方面都很便利的环境，这样，人才才能真正发挥他的作用。我想这一点也是我们下一步需要努力的方向。谢谢。 （本文根据嘉宾在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言整理，未经本人审阅，转载请注明出处）
2017年4月18日 -
茅忠群：中国企业家应体现中国担当
理事简介茅忠群，CCG资深副主席，方太集团董事长。茅忠群在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言： 中华文化是构建人类命运共同体的智慧和途径 人类社会发展的终极目标应该是：世界大同、天下一家！但当前人类仍然面临着三大问题：贫穷、战乱和文明冲突。1972年英国伟大的历史学家汤因比在《展望二十一世纪》中说道：“人类必将因过度的自私与贪婪而迷失方向，科技手段将毁掉一切，加上道德衰败和宗教信仰衰落，世界必将出现空前的危机。”他还认为：“解决人类二十一世纪的社会问题，惟有中国的孔孟之道和大乘佛法。”当代最富盛名的科学家霍金预言：“科学技术已成为人类的巨大包袱，如果人类不检点自身，将有可能活不过这个千年。”他最新的预言是：人类将在200年内灭亡。1988年，75位诺贝尔奖获得者在法国巴黎发表宣言：“人类要在21世纪生存下去，必须回到2500多年前去汲取孔子的智慧。” 由此可见，上述问题的根源就是人类过度的自私与贪婪。解决当今人类问题的根本之道在于构建人类命运共同体。而中国在这个方面可以发挥不可替代的作用。因为中华优秀文化是解决以上问题的唯一可行的智慧和途径。 中华文化是中华民族在5000年的文明进程中，以“仁爱、平等、和谐、中庸”作为自己的核心价值，以“修身齐家治国利天下”作为自己的使命追求，以“世界大同、天下一家”作为自己的终极目标，并以博大包容的胸怀吸纳世界各地的先进文化，在数千年的时间里把中华各族人民团结成为一个命运共同体的大家庭，积累了大量的团结各族人民、构建人类命运共同体的宝贵实践经验。这在人类文明史上是绝无仅有的。这对于今天人类所面临的问题提供了唯一可以借鉴和实践的中国智慧和中国方案。 从四年前的莫斯科国际关系学院到雅加达，到去年的APEC、G20，再到联合国纽约总部、日内瓦总部，习总书记上百次提到了打造人类命运共同体。并在万国宫全面系统地阐述了如何构建人类命运共同体的中国方案，其核心是以平等为基础，以开放为导向，以合作为动力，以共享为目标。今年3月23日人类命运共同体重大理念首次载入联合国人权理事会决议。这是因为今天的世界早已经是你中有我，我中有你，一荣俱荣，一损俱损。过去的思路已经被证明不能解决当今人类的问题。而中国为人类文明进步提供了唯一可行的道路：那就是世界各国一道，共商共建共享，摒弃丛林法则，超越零和博弈，最终实现人类命运共同体。这是前无古人的伟大创举，也是改变世界的中国智慧和中国担当。 今年中国两会结束后，世界各国媒体也对中国给予了高度评价，基本达成以下共识：认为中国是世界变革创新的压舱石，世界和平稳定的助推器，世界经济发展的推进器。 中国担当离不开中国企业家的担当 另外，作为一名企业家，我认为中国担当离不开中国企业家的担当。中国企业家可以在经济和文化等领域为世界做出重要贡献，体现中国担当，为实现中国梦贡献力量。习总书记指出，中国应该对人类社会有更大的贡献，更大的担当；我们要实现的中国梦不仅造福中国人民，而且造福世界人民。所以，中国企业家可以从三个方面体现中国担当： 首先，进一步增强自己的使命感。中国企业家要进一步把“修身齐家治国利天下”作为自己的人生使命，做企业也是一种治国的实践，既要满足并创造顾客需求，同时要积极承担社会责任，导人向善。 其次，加快壮大自己企业的实力。企业的实力包含硬实力和软实力。硬实力是指企业的核心能力和经营结果；软实力是指吸收和代表了中华优秀传统文化的企业文化。 第三，优先到一带一路国家去投资。中国企业去海外发展，要优先到一带一路国家去投资，吸收当地就业，发展当地经济，依法贡献税收，弘扬中华文化，善待当地员工，让员工获得物质与精神两方面的幸福。 可以预见的是，由于中华文化本身具有的无比先进性，中国在全球治理进程中的影响力将会越来越大，中华文化将逐渐被全世界所认同，成为主流文化，并与其它文化互相融合，和而不同。中国历史上诸多民族和诸侯列国最后形成一个文明和谐大家庭的大治景象必将在全世界再现，全球二百多个国家构建成为一个地球村的人类命运共同体必将得以实现。 （本文根据嘉宾在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言整理，未经本人审阅，转载请注明出处）
2017年4月17日 -
郑永年：“习特会”开启了更好的可能性，阻止了更坏的可能性
专家简介郑永年，CCG学术委员会主任、新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长。郑永年在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言： 这次习普会见，我个人的解读就是中国从不确定性到确定性，现在又走向了一些比较好的不确定性。 为什么我们不喜欢不确定性？我搞不清楚，不确定性对于中国是有好处的；如果有确定性的话，只会坏下去。特朗普当选具有不确定性，这种不确定性就是既可以更坏，也可以更好。我想我的评价就是，这次访问给我们开启了更好的可能性，阻止了更坏的可能性，这次会见我们没有看到往更坏的方向发展。 那么，出现了哪些往更好的可能性发展的不确定性？对于中国来说，我觉得中国的外交学家没有压力的话做不好一件事情。我们太骄傲，我一直说，中国是主体，北朝鲜的问题是我们自己的问题，结果看成美国的问题，包括美国对叙利亚的行动，我觉得对中国是比较好的一个压力。 同时，关于全球化，我们只看到美国会搞贸易保护主义，还要看到对于全球化的积极引领。这会对中国创造一种压力，就是怎么来竞争国际资本。我们现在不仅仅是国际资本，民营资本都留不住。而且美国流出去的资本现在要回流，还要吸引国际社会的优质资本，我们拿什么跟美国竞争？这种压力对于我们是一件好事情，对于俄罗斯也是好事情。 不过大家已经猜想，是不是基辛格要再来一次大三角的重新调整？我想很多美国人有这种想法。但是这次一来不会了，这个做不到，会向中国有利的方向发展。当然，很多方面都可以向中国有利的条件发展，就看我们自己能不能接招。所以，我觉得这次是从不确定性到确定性，再到好的不确定性。 南海问题我们前几年不得不做，因为如果不做的话，南海可能就跟我们没有关系了。越南、菲律宾都在做，这些国家很难信任中国，十年、二十年里这个信任度都建立不起来。唯一的一个做法就是中国大度一点，因为中国也不会停止军事建设，中国可以说南海造好了以后，美国的航母可以在那边，我们共同维护海上航行安全，这个可以做。如果不把美国拉进来，我想东南亚国家很难恢复对中国的信心。把美国拉进来，情况是不同的，应当像允许美国的航空母舰访问香港一样大度一点。 （本文根据嘉宾在中国与全球化智库（CCG）2017年4月9日举办的“中国与全球化圆桌论坛”上的发言整理，未经本人审阅，转载请注明出处）
2017年4月17日