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【人民网】“2015年中国海归就业与创业报告”即将发布
【人民网8月12日电】第十届中国留学人员创新创业论坛暨欧美同学会北京论坛将于8月16日在北京举行。此次论坛由欧美同学会·中国留学人员联谊会主办,中国与全球化智库(CCG)承办。 本届论坛以“大众创业,万众创新”为主题,共设置五场分论坛,分别以海归发展机遇、海归技能优势、互联网+与海归创新创业、政府如何为留学人员服务、新生代海归如何创新为主题。400多名来自海内外的留学人员和欧美同学会会员以及来自官、产、学各界精英汇聚一堂,分享海归创新理念,探寻创业中国趋势。 截至2014年底,中国出国留学人数为351.84万人,留学回国人数已达180.96万人,仅2014年一年就有36.48万人回国,相当于2001年回国人数的三十多倍。欧美同学会副会长、第十届中国留学人员创新创业论坛组委会主席、中国与全球化智库主任王辉耀表示,最近几年留学人员回国人数逐年增加,出国人数和归国人数的差额在逐年缩小。中国综合国力的竞争归根到底是人才竞争,海归群体是中国最好的人才库,而海归回国的一些政策壁垒依然存在,中国需要建立良好的政策让他们安心回国创业,加强创新的力度。 论坛将在“大众创业、万众创新”、人才强国和创新驱动的战略布局大背景下,探讨海内外留学人员如何在促进建设创新型国家、实施“一带一路”战略、开展民间外交等方面发挥自身的优势,开创“海归中国”创业创新的新局面。 据悉,中国与全球化智库与智联卓聘在论坛上将联合发布“2015年中国海归就业与创业报告”,该报告将全面展示近年来留学人员留学国家、专业方向、花费、收获等,并对留学人员回国原因以及就业、创业方向、状况等进行深入分析解读。文章选自人民网,记者:张志达
2015年8月14日 -
China Daily: Africa is not China but can copy it
Kaberuka visited CCG and had a speech on July,20 Head of continent’s development bank says Beijing has an important role to play in industrialization It took China about 30 years to transform itself from a poor country to an important economic power, but Africa is trying to make the transformation sooner, says Donald Kaberuka, president of the African Development Bank. "We have a lot to learn here from what they have done in such a short period of time," says Kaberuka, who attended a seminar at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing in late July. "I hope it takes Africa less than 30 years." Kaberuka also met with Chinese government and business leaders to discuss boosting China-Africa business links. It was his sixth visit to China, his fourth as president of the African Development Bank, established in 1964 to finance development of African countries. Africa’s growth is continuing apace, with a 4.5 percent rise expected this year, and 5 percent in 2016, according to an AfDB report. But while the world frequently compares Africa to China in the 1980s and 1990s, Kaberuka says he thinks it is important to point out some misunderstandings about Africa. The international media often portray Africa as if it were one country, he says. An epidemic in Liberia and several other relatively small West African countries, for example, was reported as an epidemic in Africa. "It is not quite right to compare China and Africa. China is 1.3 billion people, but it is one country. Africa is 1 billion people; it is 54 countries, with different currencies, trading regulations, languages, and so on," he says. "There is a whole set of similarities and differences between these countries that people must be made aware of: Large economies, large populations; small economies; naturally rich countries; industrializing countries." Kaberuka says it’s true that there is a lot to learn from China’s economic development. First is this: When Deng Xiaoping started the reform and opening-up of China, the starting point was increasing agricultural productivity. "Chinese farmers were given the right to own their farms, and the fertilizer input was increased almost four times, so agricultural development in China moved very fast and there was enough food. As you boosted agricultural productivity, you’ve got supplementary labor available for the manufacturing sector. It won’t be different in Africa," he says. "That is an important lesson for us. If you want to industrialize, begin by increasing agricultural productivity." The second: It was not about the market or the state, it is about what works. "I like very much Deng Xiaoping’s famous phrase: It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice. That is something important for me. Another is: Keep learning as you go, and see what works," he says. Kaberuka says another major priority is to attract more Chinese businesspeople to invest in African countries. "The future for growth is in Asia-Africa, so getting Asian businesspeople to invest in Africa is a thing permanently on my mind," he says. Another misunderstanding frequently advanced in the media, he says, is that the relationship between China and Africa is all about natural resources such as oil, gas and minerals, which he calls "a complete misunderstanding of the situation. There is a notion that the growth in Africa in the past 50 years is due to natural resources. Actually, that is not true. "Natural resources growth is fast but very volatile. Countries growing on the basis of investments have less growth than the natural resources countries, but it’s much more sustainable. What is driving growth now is investments, especially investments in infrastructure, demand, internal migration, increasing disposable income, expanding regional trade," he says, adding that such factors account for close to 30 percent of growth. As markets become more sophisticated, the relationship between China and Africa is increasingly about the relocation of manufacturing. "Which, for me, is a much deeper relationship than simply a trading relationship," he says. "I also see more companies from here (China), taking advantage of the huge demographic changes of my continent." Since the industrialization of the United Kingdom, businesses moved around the world based on such factors as the competitive production of labor, technology and product markets, he says. In the case of the shoe industry, it was first developed in England, especially in Manchester and Leeds, then moved to the United States, then to the Far East to Japan, to Taiwan, to the Chinese mainland, and then to Southeast Asia and now it is moving to Africa. "That doesn’t happen automatically, but only if there’s enough energy to attract the firms, if the logistics are in place. In the past few years, there have been many Chinese firms moving to Africa, moving to Ethiopia, because Ethiopian electricity is very cheap compared with China’s, and the logistics have improved a lot. "There’s a Chinese saying: You build the nest, I bring the bird. So we are involved in the process of trying to build the nest, which is good infrastructure, certain services, some property regulation, so that the investors can bring the bird and prosper in the market," Kaberuka says. Two things on top of Africa’s agenda, infrastructure and industrialization, are where China is expected to play a bigger role, he says. Africa has a deficit of $500 billion in infrastructure, and the banks have created the Africa 50 Fund to try to mobilize capital from private markets for infrastructure, which is now mainly for African governments and institutions. This is expected to open to Chinese companies as well in the future, he says. Infrastructure and industrialization have to be developed together, Kaberuka says, and industrialization must be developed on the basis of competitive infrastructure. "Infrastructure is not enough. You need to also have logistics and logistics may involve soft elements, paperwork, bureaucracy, the speed of moving things. This is soft infrastructure, and we need both in industrialization," he says. Industrial parks and special economic zones, a model often used by China in its economic development, are now widely used by African countries such as Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria, which Kaberuka says could be a good model for the continent’s industrialization. "In the large countries, you cannot provide good infrastructure everywhere," he says. Industrial parks "might be a good way to begin, so as the government you provide land, electricity, water, telephones, you provide the basics, and the companies come to settle down". With China leading the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank of which two African countries, Egypt and South Africa, are founding members there are also high expectations for the bank to operate outside Asia when there are new opportunities, Kaberuka says. "I’d be more than willing to help them identify many more opportunities in Africa for infrastructure, for which the demand is huge. My sense is that the AIIB will bring a new agenda to international financial architecture," he says. Kaberuka also says that China should not take seriously the critics who accuse it of being "new colonists" in Africa. "Globalization is about everybody being everywhere, and more energy should be spent on issues such as strengthening security, the justice system, economics and infrastructure rather than giving attention to the minority view ... of people who don’t understand the issues", he says. "Sensible people won’t say that. They understand that it is important to grow Africa’s economy, and to understand that China, like many other markets, has a role to play." He says he once went to a news conference in a European country that criticized China’s presence in Africa, but on that same day, the president of that country had flown to China with a delegation of 100 businesspeople. "You have American business here, you have Chinese business in Boston, you have African business in Guangdong. Everybody is everywhere, this is globalization," he says.(China Daily Africa Weekly 07/31/2015 page32)
2015年8月6日 -
【Global Times】China to recruit returnees into the government
China’s new leadership has attached greatest-ever importance to oversees returnees as the country deepens the reform of its political system and economic transformation. The Party is striving to put more trust in the overseas returnees and seeking more support and political participation from them. By bringing them into the administration and governance talent pool, in addition to scientific research and business sectors, the government hopes to add vigor to China’s social and economic development. Graduates prepare for a job fair in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. Photo: CFP Recently, 50 top students returning from overseas studies were invited to attend a short course at the Central Institute of Socialism in Beijing to learn about the new policies on united front work and how to raise their ability to participate in government work. The event came just one month after Chinese President Xi Jinping said that overseas-educated Chinese, together with the prominent figures in new media and businessmen from the private sector, especially young entrepreneurs, will be the three major targets for the Party to build solidarity with. In his speech, Xi stressed that overseas-educated people will be a new focus for the united front work. China began to involve the Chinese with overseas educational background in the united front work in 2000. "The pledge made by Xi shows that the central leadership is attaching more importance to this group of people, a talent pool vital for the country’s globalization," said Wang Huiyao, vice president of the Western Returned Scholars Association and Chinese Overseas-Educated Scholars Association. Xi also remarked at a united front work meeting on May 20 that the central government encouraged the overseas-educated people to return to work and serve in various forms. "Before, they were mainly encouraged to work in scientific research and innovation fields. Now there’s a trend that administration and governance will be the rising fields to attract overseas-educated talents," Wang told the Global Times on Tuesday. An overseas returnee with a doctorate degree, Wang also directs the Center for China & Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank committed to addressing issues related to global exchanges of Chinese enterprises and talents. He suggested the government should take supporting measures, such as relaxing visa requirements for overseas Chinese and lifting restrictions on overseas-educated talents to enter the Party and government organs. Rising demand In a commentary on Xi’s united front work speech, the People’s Daily said that it’s becoming an urgent need for China to attract excellent overseas talents as it faces pressure from economic slowdown. "The overseas-educated Chinese are always highly educated with a broad perspective, which is conducive to bringing new vigor to Chinese economic development," the newspaper said. Wang said under the strategies of going out and globalization, China has a big shortage of international talents. "The implementation of the ’One Belt, One Road’ initiative and the operation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will both need a large pool of well-educated people with multi-lingual ability and international visions," Wang said. During the seven-day seminar organized by the United Front Work Department (UFWD) of the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) Central Committee from June 28, 50 scientists, scholars and entrepreneurs from scientific education, finance, healthcare, biological pharmacy and new energy fields listened to reports, held discussions and conducted community service. Among the attendees, whose average age is 46, 35 have obtained doctoral degrees, 28 are enterprise chairman or president, and 14 are managers or academic leaders in higher learning institutes, according to a report by the Beijing Youth Daily. Qi Xuchun, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, gave a speech on how to raise political participation ability. He told the attendees to go to grass-roots level to learn about the real situation and know about the people. "I oppose some people who enjoy the fruits of reform and opening up while bad-mouthing the country. When you have a problem, you speak it out, but you must have a firm faith in your heart," Qi was cited as saying by the Beijing Youth Daily. The UFWD selected the attendees based on a number of criteria including political stance, professional background and public recognition, said the report. This is the second seminar organized by the UFWD for returned overseas scholars. The department said the event will be held annually in future. Wang, who attended the seminar last year, said the seminar not only displays the government’s attention to this group of people, but also provides a good opportunity to exchange ideas and discuss problems. "Refresher course is a distinctive mode of cadre training in China. The inclusion of overseas scholars into this system shows that the government is attaching more importance to them," Wang said. Lingering suspicions Official figures show that by the end of 2014, the number of Chinese students who have studied overseas reached 3.52 million since the reform and opening-up, among which 1.81 million have returned to China. But most of the returnees joined foreign-owned or private enterprises and universities. Few of them have entered into the Party and government bodies. According to data compiled by the Southern Weekly last year, among 169 officials at ministerial level or above, only 31 have studied overseas and 15 have obtained overseas certificates or degrees. Employers’ concerns over political orientation of and information breach by overseas returnees are allegedly among the factors that prevent the entry of these talents into the Party or the government. Some intellectuals with overseas education background have been openly accused by the Party-controlled media of "smearing China." An official from the Organization Department of the Jiangxi CPC Central Committee said they have staff members with overseas education, but most are transferred from universities’ leadership posts. "We encourage overseas returnees to join higher education institutes or scientific research companies, but how should we encourage them to join government organs?" the anonymous official was cited as saying by the Southern Weekly in a report last April. LU Miao (pseudonym), a student from Renmin University of China, planned to join a master’s course on national conflict overseas and work in a committee on minorities after returning to China. But his wish was quenched when his dean told him that it was difficult for an overseas returnee to work in an organ concerning State security, reported the newspaper. Wang suggested that restrictions on overseas returnees to work in Party and government organs and public institutions should be further relaxed. "We should expand avenues for overseas scholars to make proposals and participate in the policy-making process, helping them play a bigger role in politics," Wang noted. Zhao Jinliang, a senior project manager with Chengtong Human Resources Company, which is engaged in job placement for overseas returnees, told the Global Times that China has opened nearly all occupations to them, except the departments dealing with confidential information. Huang believes there are historical reasons behind the cautious attitude toward overseas returnees. In 1981, China officially implemented regulations allowing students to study abroad at their own expense and stipulated that "self-funded returnees shall be politically treated as equal to the public-funded ones." Before that, China mainly sent political and technical elites to study overseas at public expense through recommendations and selection. However, many of these elites didn’t return, especially around the year 1989. By the beginning of the 21st century, the number of self-funded students greatly surpassed those receiving State funding. From 1978 to 2000, among the total 223,000 people who studied abroad, 71 percent were supported by the State. But in 2000, 83 percent were self-funded. Last year, the proportion reached 93 percent. But the majority of these students chose to stay overseas. To attract the talents back, China has launched a series of programs, including the "Thousand Talents Program" in 2008 and "Ten Thousand Talents Program" in 2012, offering generous remunerations in terms of salary, housing and household registration, or hukou. But still, many of these nominees are in scientific research and teaching fields. The limited channels for overseas returnees to become civil servants are the major barrier, Wang Huiyao said. Now, the main channel to be a civil servant is to sit in the annual examinations held by the central and lower level governments. In many cases, the entry qualifications include membership of the Party which overseas returnees generally don’t have. Wang suggested that the organizers should set up examination centers in foreign countries and increase recruitment channels for overseas returnees. Fresh measures Xiao Han, an overseas returnee who established Lanshan Group, a private equity fund offering investment in social areas, said the overseas experience helps students become more patriotic and more competitive. "As an expat in a foreign country, we have a strong desire for the homeland to become powerful," he told the Global Times. He said the returned scholars have several advantages compared with their home-grown peers. "They are willing to make change; they are aware of both Chinese and foreign culture and know how to blend and avoid conflicts; and can introduce good things to China and good things of China to outside. In addition, they usually have a higher sense of social responsibility," Xiao said. Zhao Leji, head of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, called for greater trust in overseas returnees during a meeting of the "Thousand Talents Program" in March. "When introducing high-level overseas talents, who have special advantages, we should trust them and make best use of them," Zhao said. Xiao Han said he noticed that the number of returnees has been rising in recent years. Official statistics show that last year, 459,800 students went to study abroad and 364,800 returned, much more than before. Many students are pleased to see that overseas returnees get more importance. Ren Yue, who went to St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Finance in Russia last year, told the Global Times, "There’s a perception that many students who go overseas for education are not good performers. Now we feel that this perception is changing," Ren told the Global Times. However, Huang Hongyu, an IT engineer in Australia who stayed back after overseas study there, said he hoped the slogans are turned into more specific measures to help returnees get employed. Wang said the top-down approach can push the local authorities to take action. He said "green card" policies China recently issued are one of the attempts to allow overseas Chinese to stay in China. The Ministry of Public Security in June decided to open applications for permanent residence to foreigners working in a number of institutes including State key laboratories, State enterprise technology centers, national engineering research centers, and foreign-invested R&D centers. At an entrepreneurship forum for overseas returnees held this week in Guiyang, Guizhou Province, Guizhou offered more than 500 jobs for overseas returnees, with the capital city Guiyang alone offering 380 jobs, including 100 in public institutions like schools and hospitals, 17 in the government, and 42 in State-owned companies. Zhao Jinliang who joined the meeting said the local governments are answering the call from the central government. Ma Chen contributed to this story Newspaper headline: Talents return for Party From China Daily, July 29, 2015
2015年8月6日 -
【和讯智库访谈】苗绿:中国应推出资深海归计划
近日,中国与全球化智库的执行秘书长苗绿博士做客《和讯座谈会》栏目,对中国与全球化智库的发展设想、中国社会智库格局、中国绿卡制度与人才国际化 等话题进行了剖析。针对中国人才引进制度存在的问题,苗绿博士指出,中国应推出资深海归计划,并应首先从海外6000万华人华侨群体中引进高端人才,这是 任何一个国家都不具备的资源优势。 中国外籍人才引进制度中经常受到诟病的因素就是绿卡制度,有一种说法说中国的绿卡是世界上最难拿的。对此,苗绿博士认为,2004年开始到2014年,中国只发了6000张绿卡,但美国每 年发放差不多100万张,其中有20万都是给人才的,即人才签证。她指出,中国吸引海外人才应首先从华人华侨开始,中国在海外友6000万华人华侨,这是 任何一个国家都不具备的优势。这个群体中的很多人在家庭里是受华人教育的,天然跟中国有一些联系,在中国企业走出去的进程中,他们对当地非常了解,跨国公 司都可以用他们,这是一个很好地为中国服务的方式。 在人才引进的具体操作层面上,苗绿指出,中国政府应开放引高端人才的类别,中国此前吸引人才必须是副教授以上的职称的人,现在总共有六个机构, 比如科学院、企业研究中心和研究所等机构,现在多了一个类别是跨国公司的研究所,比如微软研究所可以开放他们的外籍人才在中国申请绿卡。像中国的华为、中兴等跨国企业也一样需要大量的国际化的人才。绿卡就是留住人的一种方式,应开放更多类别给高端人才。 此外,苗绿还提出中国应推出资深海归计划,因为像海外很多年纪比较大的海归,其实什么都有,特别是有强大的技术优势,回来以后可以为中国服务。 他们很多在海外有社保,我们提供基本的福利就可以。中国应尝试给资深海归一些在流动上的壁垒安排,更多地激发他们对中国服务的热情。 苗绿现在担任中国与全球化智库的执行秘书长,同时也担任中国国际人才专业委员会副秘书长和北京师范大学国际写作中心的副总干事。苗绿博士在北京师范大学获 得当代中国研究的博士学位,曾经在美国哈佛大学、纽约大学等机构担任访问学者,并曾参与多项国家部委以及中国社科基金的研究课题,出版的专著包括《大国智 库》、《中国海归发展报告》以及《国际人才蓝皮书之中国留学发展报告》。本文选自和讯网,2015年7月30日
2015年8月6日 -
【热点聚焦】中国智库:站在春天 遥望政策
“内参为王”的时代,与官方的直接联系依然是智库影响力的决定因素。政策细则待定,体制内智库希望打破僵化的人事财务机制,民间智库则盼望鼓励企业捐赠以维持生存。 2015年1月20日,智库们奔走相告“春天真的来了”。新华社发布消息:中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于加强中国特色新型智库建设的意见》(下称《意见》)。 回首近几年对中国各类智库所做的长期跟踪观察,中国网智库频道原负责人张林告诉财新记者:“《意见》公布我们就安心了,至少证明我们之前围绕智库所做的研究、报道和呼吁不是‘自嗨’。” 连一直抱怨民间智库被歧视的大军咨询创始人仲大军也感受到了温度的变化。“政府制定了新的政策,主要是注册管理方面。以前我们办民间智库想去民政局注册很难,没办法都跑到了工商局注册成企业。现在民间智库按照民办非企业单位来注册有思路了。前几天民政部还邀请我参加他们的文件起草讨论会。” 春天并非忽如一夜来,被智库研究者们挂在嘴边的《意见》,在公布前经过了长期的酝酿。2012年,党的十八大报告就明确提出,“坚持科学决策、民主决策、依法决策、健全决策机制和程序,发挥思想库作用”。当时官方文件还更多地使用“思想库”而不是舶来词“智库”。2013年4月,习近平首次提出建设“中国特色新型智库”的目标,把智库建设提升到国家战略的高度。此后,媒体持续聚焦“智库”,“布鲁金斯学会”“兰德公司”等美国著名智库的名字一时成为媒体报道中的高频热词。 正如《意见》的结尾要求,“各地区各有关部门要结合实际,按照本《意见》精神制定具体办法”,欢呼进入春天的智库也意识到,真正更实质性的改变可能还要等些时日。 春天里的烦恼 影响力是智库的生命和价值所在,但如何界定一直缺乏标准。今年初由零点国际发展研究院和中国互联网新闻中心/中国网联合发布的《2014中国智库影响力报告》,希望采用客观指标来构建公允的智库评价体系。报告将智库影响力分为专业影响力、政府影响力、社会影响力和国际影响力等四项,比如国际影响力是根据该智库与国际机构合作的频次、合作的国外智库数量、智库主要研究人员在国际会议上的发言次数等数据综合计算得出;而政府影响力,具体指标包括智库为政府人员培训的数量和级别、承担政府委托项目的数量和级别、获得政府领导批示的数量和级别,以及参加政府部门座谈会的数量和级别。 基于这一整套评价体系,《智库影响力报告》排列出了中国综合排名的前二十名,以及各分类榜单,国务院发展研究中心、中国社会科学院、上海社会科学院、北京大学国家发展研究院、中共中央党校名列智库综合影响力前五;北大国发院、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院、清华大学国情研究院分列高校智库影响力前三名;零点研究咨询集团、中国(海南)改革发展研究院、中国与全球化智库分列民间智库前三位。 在零点-中国网版《智库影响力报告》发布之前,行业内已有美国宾西法尼亚大学的智库排名和上海社会科学院的智库排名,后两者都是采用同行专家提名和主观打分的方式。 毫无疑问,在中国,智库的影响力主要来自其对权力的影响力。很多智库并不愿透露自己获得高层批示的数量,作为《智库影响力报告》参与者, 张林感叹,“即便这一指标没有分数,国务院发展研究中心和中国社科院也可以稳居智库综合影响力前两名”。 国务院发展研究中心是直属国务院的政策研究和咨询机构,成立于1981年,其官方网站显示,2014年该中心报送各类研究报告483篇,中央领导对其中121篇报告作出批示301次。中国社会科学院成立于1977年,官方网站显示,社科院现有研究所31个,研究中心45个,全院总人数4200多名。中国社科院原副院长李扬曾透露,作为中央政府最主要的高端智库之一,社科院有自己的上报系统,有多种报告呈送,其中最重要的报告只送给40多人看。 中国智库的整体状况大致如国务院发展研究中心主任李伟所说:“目前我国有近2000家各类政策研究机构,约90%是体制内的,主要设立在各级党政部门、社科院、党校行政学院、高校、军队、科技系统和企业。长期以来,它们是我国决策咨询体系的主体。” 学界、媒体对这2000家大大小小智库的分类方法有很多种。大致都是按照官方智库、半官方智库(社会科学院和高校)、民间智库三分天下;也有的因为社科院系统体量巨大,将中国智库分为党政军智库、社科院智库、高校智库和民间智库。 但人们逐渐发现,这些标签对于说明智库的影响力意义不大。“做得好的民间智库基本上还是与官方有千丝万缕的联系。”几个受访的智库研究者都向财新记者表达了相同的观点。 “很多体制外智库的高层渠道让我们这些体制内智库望尘莫及。”上海社会科学院智库研究中心项目组执行组长李凌说。 被称为“中国最高级别智库”的中国国际经济交流中心(下称国经中心)2009年3月成立,拥有包括理事长、前国务院副总理曾培炎在内的超豪华阵容。2013年,国经中心常务副理事长、中央政策研究室原副主任郑新立在接受媒体采访时称,中心的终极目标是建成中国民间智库的旗舰。本次采访期间,国经中心副理事长兼秘书长、商务部原副部长魏建国又向财新记者做了修正:“国经中心的定位是社会智库,不叫民间智库,也不叫半官方智库。”对于过去媒体报道大都将国经中心称为“一家政府智库”一事,魏建国表示,“外面怎么看是外面的事情,财政预算里面没有给我们的钱,我们也没有编制。” 但在谈话中,魏建国并不讳言国经中心强大的体制内运作背景,“我们有的理事可以参加国务院常务会议”,“我们会安排研究人员到地方挂职副县长,回来之后写出来的东西明显更接地气”。 很多近年新崛起的民间智库都有类似的特点。盘古智库的发起人易鹏曾是国家发改委研究员,中国与全球化智库理事会长王辉耀担任着国务院参事、欧美同学会/中国留学人员联谊会副会长等职务。 体制内智库(包括党政军、社科院、高校)的烦恼大致相同,而民间智库各有各的烦恼。 体制内智库大多受限于公务员、事业单位体制的人事和财务管理限制。一位体制内机构的研究人员举了几个例子:“领导干部每年出国的次数、每次出国的天数、每次出访的国家都是有限制的,如果我们要考察‘一带一路’沿途国家,可能就要反复回国重新申请”“如果我们外请一个同声传译,要支付人家工资,有时候会议有保密要求需要用自己的同志翻译,却不能支付报酬”。由于人才激励机制不足,体制内智库人员跳槽到公司的现象时有发生。 民间智库则因为吃不上财政饭,首先要考虑的就是经费问题。即使进入了智库的春天,智库研究学者清华大学朱旭峰教授依然认为,对于中国的非官方智库来说,首先是要活下来。 北京大军智库经济咨询有限公司的前身是2000年成立的北京大军经济观察中心。它的创始人仲大军下海前曾在新华社和《中国经济时报》工作。由于在民政部注册受阻,仲大军将自己的智库在西城区工商局登记注册为股份合作制公司。自成立以来大军咨询几乎所有的活动都是仲大军一个人进行的。 经过十几年的艰难求生,64岁的仲大军坦承现在“有些懒了”:“这些年就靠写文章,哪里能发就发,有没有影响政策,我们也不太去管了。我们也在观望,形势不好就不干了。”当然并不是每个非官方智库都担心生存问题。之前有媒体报道,被称为“超级智库”的国经中心在成立之初就有5亿元基金作为后盾。对此,魏建国澄清,“只筹到了3亿元”,“每次办论坛、峰会都要单独筹集资金,就几百万元”。 知识到政策间的鸿沟 智库被称为知识到政策之间的桥梁,对不同智库来说,桥有长有短。参与智库报告制作全过程的张林和李凌都认为,现今,智库影响决策的主要方式还是内参系统。 作为中国战略文化促进会常务副会长兼秘书长的罗援少将,对自家智库的政策影响力十分清楚:“内参批示也有,不便说,对决策层也是有影响的。作为十一届全国政协委员,我曾经以中国战略文化促进会副会长的身份提了一些建议,有些已经被国家采纳了。当时我们一共提了25个提案,其中10个提案已经落实了,包括在南海设立特别行政区、成立国家海警队、国庆游行设立老兵方队等等。” 清华大学教授朱旭峰在《中国思想库:政策过程中的影响力研究》一书中,通过构建模型、定量分析发现:理应成为智库核心能力的专家知识运用能力,无论是在社科院、高校还是民间智库,对实际智库影响力贡献都是次要的;智库通过提高本机构的综合研究能力来提高自己的影响力,效率并没有通过政府关系来的高。简而言之,就是搞好学术效果不如搞好政府关系和人脉——当然这是针对所有类型的智库。 也有智库工作人员和研究人员不同意这种说法。一位社科院研究人员分析认为:“选择民间智库还是官方智库,跟买方有关,如果是政府机关要委托智库做课题,当然交给官方智库更放心,出了问题承担的责任也小。”他同时强调,官方背景较弱的体制外智库即使缺乏“内参”渠道,也可以通过媒体影响公众和知识精英来发挥影响力,并最终获得官方的关注。 很多情况是桥梁的两端都很茫然,智库不知如何找到需求方,需求方也不知道哪家智库可靠。罗援告诉财新记者,中国战略文化促进会也会把一些研究课题委托给其他智库来做,或者合作,但“不知道哪个是正儿八经的”,或更有权威、更有实力。他建议“梳理一下智库黄页,分门别类列一个名单”。国经中心也遇到了同样的问题,魏建国表示,民间智库鱼龙混杂、泥沙俱下,有时候不知道找谁合作。 一旦打通了供给与需求之间的信息不对称,或者民间智库得到了官方的好评,市场反应常常很明显。 零点国际发展研究院智库报告负责人郭维维告诉财新记者:“去年总理在一次会议上提了一下零点调查,之后负责政府项目的部门业务涨得很厉害。零点的公共智库部门以前做社会性的、公益性的调查,都是自己花钱做,所以都是微亏或者持平,去年一下就变为盈余。” 郭维维这样看智库春天带来的变化:“如果说是影响宏观政策制定的能力,零点是很弱势的。偶尔也能拿到批示,但是很少。如果从这个角度来说,这几年宏观环境也没有变得更好。但如果从拿到政府的调查项目的角度,现在环境好了很多,只不过可能有的项目不方便以零点的名义发布。” 探索与观望 2015年6月,中国社科院经济研究所公共政策研究中心在微信公众号上挂出了特约研究员和研究助理的招募信息。从招募信息可以看出,公共政策中心正在调整自己的研究团队,跨学科、跨单位甚至跨体制的研究合作在被引入传统的研究机构,而人才流动的入局很有可能将搅动原有的用人格局,为原有的研究人员带来一定竞争的压力。 虽然《意见》从组织管理体制、研究体制、经费管理制度、成果评价和应用转化机制、国际交流合作机制五个方面提出了建设“中国特色新型智库”的一系列改革举措,但大都是原则性的。半年来,高端智库们已开始探索如何将原则付诸实际。 所谓“高端智库”,是指《意见》提出的重点建设50-100个国家亟须、特色鲜明、制度创新、引领发展的专业化高端智库。《意见》明确提出支持中共中央党校、中国科学院、中国社会科学院、中国工程院、国务院发展研究中心、国家行政学院、中国科协、中央重点新闻媒体、部分高校和科研院所、军队系统重点教学科研单位及有条件的地方先行开展高端智库建设试点。 中国社科院前副院长李扬向财新记者透露:高端智库试点的选择是采取点名的方式,比如由中央点名包括他本人在内的一些智库领军人物,之后成立相关的监管理事会,制定高端智库的管理办法。 国务院发展研究中心和中央党校的相关负责人告诉财新记者,本机构的高端智库试点方案已经上报正在等待中央批复,目前不便接受媒体采访。中央党校方面强调,“试点方案有1万多字,方方面面都有,到时候就知道了。” 对于什么是“中国特色”,《意见》颁布后不久,较早参与中央党校智库建设工作的中央党校校委委员、科研部主任梁言顺就对《光明日报》表示:《意见》强调了中国特色新型智库之“特”,较好地处理了智库发展与政治敏感之间的关系,比如在基本原则上,强调坚持党的领导,把握正确导向,强调坚持围绕大局,服务中心工作,明确了中国特色新型智库的政治红线、法律底线和努力方向。 从高端智库负责人之前透露的零星信息看,高端智库试点的改革热点集中在人事管理和财务管理制度。国务院发展研究中心副主任隆国强曾表示,人才是智库的根本,人事制度是高端智库建设最核心、最关键、最先要做的制度设计。 李凌利用上海社科院智库研究中心的平台了解过很多智库的改革想法。“最重要的一个是人、一个是钱。现在人才的评价还是按照高校的体系,看发表论文数,但是智库和学术机构不一样,评价要看咨询建言的质量。而为了解决经费问题,很多机构都在不停地报课题,课题费使用上又容易出违规行为。这个状况需要改变。各地都在制定细则”。 《意见》中针对社会智库的论述,集中在规范和引导社会智库健康发展。文件中,社会智库的定位是中国特色新型智库的组成部分,要求坚持把社会责任放在首位,由民政部会同有关部门研究制定规范和引导社会力量兴办智库的若干意见,确保社会智库遵守国家宪法法律法规,沿着正确方向健康发展;进一步规范咨询服务市场,完善社会智库产品供给机制;探索社会智库参与决策咨询服务的有效途径,营造有利于社会智库发展的良好环境。 虽然《意见》中未曾提及,中国与全球化智库、盘古智库等民间智库都在接受采访时呼吁企业捐赠民间智库。王辉耀提出,建设新型智库,首先要为民间智库争取参与权,尤其是政府的公共政策采购,要严格遵循采购制度,政策课题的招投标一定要对所有智库开放,而非包干给体制内的单位;其次,要建立支持智库经费的渠道,鼓励企业捐赠智库事业。 根据企业所得税相关法规的规定,企业发生的公益性捐赠支出,在年度利润总额12%以内的部分准予在计算应纳税所得额时扣除。民间智库呼吁,智库生产的是非盈利性产品,企业捐赠智库也应该具有抵税资格。 即便面临生存问题,民间智库依然大多选择回避境外资金。中国社科院下属某研究所也透露,不太敢接国际项目,怕有事说不清。 “智库需要提供的是关于公共政策的建言献策,而不是改变政治体制。”上海社科院李凌认为,民间智库有很多可以研究的,“没有必要去碰这些敏感的话题”。本文选自《财新周刊》2015年7月30日
2015年8月4日 -
【和讯智库访谈】苗绿:中国应建立国家猎头机构
近日,中国与全球化智库的执行秘书长苗绿博士做客《和讯座谈会》栏目,对中国与全球化智库的发展设想、中国社会智库格局、中国绿卡制度与人才国际化等话题进行了剖析。苗绿指出,全球已经打响了人才战争,中国政府应建立一个国家猎头的机构,因为很多人才是需要去三顾茅庐的,需要由专门机构负责国家人才库、全球人才库以及人才地图的维护。 在国际上高端人才引进方面,很多政府都非常重视猎头的作用,像美国、新加坡、德国、印度、韩国等国都有非常完备的政府猎头体系,中国在该方面具有很大差距。苗绿博士认为,世界上大多数的发达国家和很多发展中国家都有移民局,中国与全球化智库一直都建议中国政府也要做这类机构,可以不叫移民局,叫人才局,还可以在海外使领馆中建立移民人才处。 苗绿鲜明指出,中国政府还真没有一个国家猎头的一个机构,因为很多人才是需要去三顾茅庐的,也需要国家人才库、全球人才库和人才地图,要统计这些东西需要由专门机构负责,中国各个地方政府在这方面很积极,在中组部的倡导下他们很多都走出去,在全球猎取一些人才。 针对人才签证机制中存在的壁垒,苗绿博士指出,人才签证的原则要跟公司和税收挂钩,也希望把现在已有的人才签证做实做好,并破除壁垒,让绿卡更容易拿。此外,中国还要扩大外国人申请绿卡就业单位的范围,无论是在体制内的机构还是跨国公司研究所,只要能在中国找到比较好的工作,我们可以设定一个限制,什么样的工作你能找到。此外,还可以出台一些就业单位的职位清单,这样根据我们市场导向去找国际化的人才,这些都是需要做的。 苗绿现在担任中国与全球化智库的执行秘书长,同时也担任中国国际人才专业委员会副秘书长和北京师范大学国际写作中心的副总干事。苗绿博士在北京师范大学获得当代中国研究的博士学位,曾经在美国哈佛大学、纽约大学等机构担任访问学者,并曾参与多项国家部委以及中国社科基金的研究课题,出版的专著包括《大国智库》、《中国海归发展报告》以及《国际人才蓝皮书之中国留学发展报告》。本文选自和讯网,7月30日
2015年8月4日 -
【城市化发展】中国最具潜力城市强势洗牌的秘密
在全球化时代,城市竞争力可能就是一个国家的竞争力。一个城市的竞争力源于它的性价比,人们会“以脚投票”,尤其是越来越壮大的中产阶级,都愿意到性价比高的城市生活。 在中国的四个一线城市里,北京、上海常住人口都已超过2000万,广州、深圳已经超过1000万。而在不久的将来,这个数字还要变大。 目前,中国很多人口增速最快的城市都是中国的省会城市或者在经济增速最快地区的大城市,这些城市拉动了整个世界的经济增长。 然而,任何城市都具有跨越的可能,随着城市的地位和实力不断变化,有些新兴城市崛起,有些城市不断失色,在竞争中落后。在短短五年里,中国最具潜力城市已出现了“洗牌”。 英国《经济学人》智库(EIU)发布的“中国新兴城市排名”中,位于中西部的贵州贵阳、湖北襄阳、湖南衡阳占据了三甲的位置,位列前十名的城市还有重庆、宿迁、淮南、淮北、株洲、郑州、成都等城市,其中只有江苏宿迁位于“东部地区”。 据了解,早在五年前,经济学人智库就设计了新兴城市指数,指数以增长指标为基础,统计城市GDP、人口、居民收入和基础设施的变化。 此次新兴城市前三强分别是贵州省贵阳市、湖北省襄阳市和湖南省衡阳市,而在五年前的城市排名榜单中,几乎难觅这些城市的踪影。 经济学人智库表示,这些城市的发展主要受到投资和基础建设发展的推动,但都辅以创新政策措施。 贵阳曾经也是充满争议的城市,但最近几年,贵阳以大数据中心的形象出现。几大国有电信巨头都已经在贵阳投资建设大数据中心,阿里巴巴、富士康等企业都在贵阳投资建厂,并带动新兴的数据分析等产业发展。 其它信息技术公司和中关村科技园等也落户贵阳。刘倩解释说,这带动了贵阳产业结构的转型,一改以往依靠采矿业和重工业的产业结构,基础设施和投资还转变成消费能力,使其脱颖而出。 贵阳的变化也适用于西部的成都、重庆等城市。新兴城市排行榜前20强中有18个城市不属于原先占据领先地位的东部省份。经济学人智库的研究显示,包括襄阳、衡阳在内的中西部城市都抓住了东部产业转移的机遇,建立专门工业园,走出了过分依赖房地产的周期,吸引新的投资,在未来的竞争中占据优势。 中国内陆城市的不断崛起为企业提供了巨大的发展机遇。到2019年,武汉市的经济规模将超过葡萄牙或捷克。 22日,武汉市统计局联合国家统计局武汉调查队发布上半年武汉经济数据:GDP比上年同期增长8.7%,高于全国平均水平1.7个百分点;三大产业中,第三产业增速最快,领跑武汉经济。 具体来看,上半年,武汉第一产业增长4.2%,第二产业增长8.3%,第三产业增长9.3%,第三产业增速高于第二产业。 “第三产业对武汉经济的支撑非常明显,在8.7个点的GDP增幅中,第三产业贡献率达到4.8个点,超过一半。”武汉市统计局副巡视员、新闻发言人应小莉表示,第三产业当中,金融市场稳定增长,房地产上半年销售情况回暖,盈利性服务业增速也较快。 据了解,贵阳将自身定位为国内领先的“大数据”中心;襄阳建造了专门的产业园来吸引企业;而台湾合约电子制造商富士康的投资也促进了衡阳的经济发展。 经济学人智库的报告预测,中部省份的城市表现将最为强劲,主要得益于产业转移以及基础设施建设,未来还会产生新的红利。 与之相比,东北城市面临人口外流和固有经济结构的难题。鞍山、齐齐哈尔、抚顺等城市到2019年的市辖区人口预计都会出现平均年度负增长。 传统上依赖资源和原材料的城市,比如包头、呼和浩特、太原等受到价格走低的冲击,排名后移。采矿业和重工业基地城市发展前景恶化,这明显地集中在东北地区。 以吉林省会长春为例,2010年时尚在前20强,2015年已跌至86位。经济学人智库分析,在振兴东北政策下,长春搭上了政策春风,在本世纪初一向发展顺利。但2012年起,受到占据该市工业总产值近60%的汽车工业消费低迷的影响,长春的经济一蹶不振。 另一方面,长春在事先经济多元化和鼓励创新方面进展缓慢,没有摆脱对国有企业的依赖。长春的人口问题也很突出,难以提供有竞争力的就业机会,吸引高技术人才。2014—2019年长春的劳动年龄人口数量将出现下降,限制产业发展,并影响到消费能力。 “东北城市以国企为主,应对外部环境变化,如大宗商品变化带来的工业产品价格下降等冲击,反应相对滞后。”经济学人智库中国研究总监刘倩指出,东北城市应该努力解决不利的人口发展和结构经济带来的影响。 东北也不是全部“失意”,辽宁的锦州和营口依靠大力发展港口提升了竞争力,位居新兴城市前20位,这也显示出各城市适应新政策和产业调整能力的差别。 “中国内陆城市的不断崛起为企业提供了巨大的发展机遇。”刘倩称,排名前20的新兴城市再也不会是让人忽视的“小市场”:它们市辖区人口总和将在2019年达到5000万左右,人均可支配收入将在2013年的水平上增长60%,年均收入超过10万元的居民人数将从不足50万人增加至440万人。 新兴城市竞争力的秘密就是告别单一,拥抱多元。 随着中国房地产市场告别“黄金年代”,全国各地楼市都火爆、所有产品都热销、所有房企都赚钱的时代,一去不返。“分化”已成为关键词。 例如,沈阳与贵阳这两个城市在过去5年间倚重房地产开发。沈阳楼市的库存量与去化周期向来是业内所关心的重要数据,一直以来,沈阳房地产市场较高的库存成为楼市正向发展的巨大压力。 数据统计,2014年底,沈阳楼市库存量为29328888平方米,而如今沈阳楼市库存为27796682平方米,库存量呈现出减少的趋势。 2015年开年至今,商品住宅库存量逐渐减少,从年初的接近2900万平方米,缩少至现在的2700万平方米左右,一是销售量在回升,同时,新增供应量减少,其中销售量与去年同期相比增加了15%,而新增供应量同比减少了27%。 在政策利好叠加下,特别是沈阳市政府房交会“购房补贴”的大力刺激,商品房、商品住宅成交量同比去年明显回升,可以说有了“复苏”迹象。 但同时由于沈阳整体“商品住宅库存”尚需时日消化,所以是否彻底“转暖和复苏”尚待持续观察。从目前的库存量和销售量来看,沈阳商品住宅的去化周期大约在27个月左右。 另据数据统计,截止到2015年3月,贵阳楼市库存907.14万平米。按照贵阳一季度楼市每个月44万方的消化速度,贵阳楼市库存量为20.6个月,属于健康范围。 在中国,大量人口的自由流动,扭转并主导了中国各地区之间人口变动的方向,进而成为影响经济发展的核心要素。而随着人口数量红利逐渐消失,中国很快将陷入“抢人大战”。 即使中国已进入“新常态”,珠三角、长三角和北京等地区等早已进入老龄化社会,人均GDP已逼近某些发达国家,但是这些地区的经济增长仍保持在较高速度。 因为有另一只无形之手在拨弄经济的脉搏——流动人口。在中国,大量人口的自由流动,扭转并主导了中国各地区之间人口变动的方向,进而成为影响经济发展的核心要素。 根据国家卫生和计划生育委员会发布的数据,截至2013年底,全国流动人口达2.45亿人。这意味着,全国有超过18%的人口离开本地或本省在外生活。 东北地区是人口流出最明显的区域之一。根据第六次全国人口普查的数据,东三省每年净流出的人口约200万人。东北三省中,黑龙江和吉林都是人口净流出,只有辽宁每年还有大约20万的人口净流入,但远比不上北京市40万至80万的年人口流入量。 按照六普数据,黑龙江总和生育率1.03,吉林1.03,辽宁1.0,远低于全国1.5%,比江苏、浙江等经济更发达地区都低,仅高于北京、上海等极少城市。甚至比基本同纬度的韩国和日本要低,2013年韩国女性的总和生育率为1.19,日本为1.34。 由于越来越多的年轻人离开东北,出生率又极低,整个人口结构自然也更快老龄化。如2013年辽宁65岁以上的老年人口占比10.3%,比全国平均水平高出1.43个百分点。 不夸张地说,多年人口净流出加上明显的老龄化,使得东三省面临“后继无人”的尴尬,甚至陷入人口危机。 目前,东三省的人口自然增长率已经全部低于1‰,其中吉林在2012年降至0.36‰,黑龙江在2013年降至0.78‰,而辽宁省2011年至2013年已开始负增长,2014也仅回升到0.26‰。 人口压力带来经济潜在增速的下行。东北地区经济从2012年开始大幅下滑,2014年黑龙江省、辽宁省GDP增速不及6%,吉林省也仅6.5%。 对东部人口流入省份而言,“人口顺差”也是其GDP增长的重要驱动力。北京、上海等地每年由人口净流入导致的GDP增长可能达2个百分点,使得其GDP仍能达到7%左右。 “农民工是东部劳动力的重要补充,甚至是沿海地区的劳动力主体”,光大证券首席经济学家徐高表示,“不过,目前青年人绝对数量下降,而中西部工资上涨很快,年轻人回内地工作动力增大”。 在进入21世纪后的近十多年来,规模扩张型的城镇化和土地财政愈演愈烈,如果再对各个城市的扩张计划进行加总,在至2020年的发展规划中,各个城市的人口需求恐怕也是以数十亿来计。 这种情景假设再清楚不过地揭示出,中国各地的城镇化和经济发展规划,将带来一场前所未有的人口资源抢夺大战。如果各地的发展规划都得以落实,中国所拥有的各种资源恐怕会被消耗殆尽! 眼下,各大省会城市、发达地级市及县城都在大张旗鼓地建新城、设新区,但面对即将到来的和一二线城市抢人的局面,他们准备好了吗? 为长远计,对于大多数城市来说,早建立起吸引劳动力的优势,就能在城市间抢人大战中占据先机。或许,下一个中国最具潜力城市就是你。文章选自智谷趋势,2015年7月29日
2015年8月3日